Gallup: Obama job approval rating for first half of 2011 by state

Obama enjoys an approval rating of 50% or higher in 16 states and DC, as opposed to 12 and DC in the latter half of 2010. He enjoys consistent support in the East but struggles in the South. Support by state is more random in the Midwest and West.

Average ratings for first half of 2011 by state (approval/disapproval rate). Bolded states were won by Obama in 2008.

District of Columbia (83/14)
Connecticut (60/34)
Maryland (59/34)
Delaware (59/35)
New York (57/34)
Massachusetts (57/36)
Hawaii (56/32)
Vermont (54/35)
Illinois (54/38)
New Jersey (54/40)
California (53/37)
Minnesota (52/42)
Rhode Island (50/39)
Washington (50/41)
Wisconsin (50/41)
Maine (50/42)
Michigan (50/42)
Iowa (49/42)
Pennsylvania (48/44)
Georgia (48/44)
Florida (47/45)
North Carolina (46/46)
Virginia (46/47)
New Mexico (46/47)
Mississippi (45/47)
Ohio (45/47)
Nevada (44/48)
Arizona (44/48)
Colorado (44/48)
Oregon (44/48)
South Carolina (43/47)
Louisiana (42/50)
Indiana (42/50)
Missouri (42/50)
South Dakota (41/44)
Texas (40/50)
New Hampshire (40/52)
Tennessee (40/53)
Alaska (39/52)
Nebraska (39/53)
Kansas (38/53)
Alabama (38/54)
North Dakota (37/52)
Kentucky (37/55)
Montana (36/55)
Arkansas (33/57)
West Virginia (32/58)
Oklahoma (32/58)
Utah (32/60)
Wyoming (32/62)
Idaho (27/63)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148874/Obama-Job-Approval-Higher-States.aspx#1

In the upper half, the states he won the last time and
in the lower half, the states he lost the last time.

I'll bet there would be no surprises in the lower half,
but some alarming conversions in the upper half. For
example, my own NH is now 40 to 52 opposed. There
go four Electoral votes...

Tesha

It makes it a little easier to see where he's losing support, and where's gained/kept support

But with ten other states that supported him in 2008 now having more negative than positive votes, this measurement doesn't bode well. But opinion polls are fickle, it's been a contentious summer, and Obama's just beginning to campaign. He's got plenty of corporate cash this time around, he's gearing up to court independent and Republican votes, and it's not like Democrats have any choice but to follow him meekly, so I don't doubt that we'll see some shifting in those numbers in the months ahead.

District of Columbia (83/14) 3

Connecticut (60/34) 7

Maryland (59/34) 10

Delaware (59/35) 3

New York (57/34) 29

Massachusetts (57/36) 11

Hawaii (56/32) 4

Vermont (54/35) 3

Illinois (54/38) 20

New Jersey (54/40) 14

California (53/37) 55

Minnesota (52/42) 10

Rhode Island (50/39) 4

Washington (50/41) 12

Wisconsin (50/41) 10

Maine (50/42) 4

Michigan (50/42) 16

215 Electoral Votes (Approval Rating above 50%



______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________




Iowa (49/42) 6

Pennsylvania (48/44) 20

Georgia (48/44) 16

Florida (47/45) 29

71 Electoral Votes (Approval rating above disapproval rating)



_________________________________________________________________________________________________



North Carolina (46/46) 15

Virginia (46/47) 13

New Mexico (46/47) 5

Mississippi (45/47) 6

Ohio (45/47) 18

Nevada (44/48) 6

Arizona (44/48) 11

Colorado (44/48) 9

Oregon (44/48) 7

South Carolina (43/47) 9

Louisiana (42/50) 8

Indiana (42/50) 11

Missouri (42/50) 10

South Dakota (41/44) 3

Texas (40/50) 38

New Hampshire (40/52) 4

Tennessee (40/53) 11

184 Electoral votes (Approval rating in low 40s)

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Alaska (39/52) 3

Nebraska (39/53) 5

Kansas (38/53) 6

Alabama (38/54) 9

North Dakota (37/52) 3

Kentucky (37/55) 8

Montana (36/55) 3

Arkansas (33/57) 6

West Virginia (32/58) 5

Oklahoma (32/58) 7

Utah (32/60) 6

Wyoming (32/62) 3

Idaho (27/63) 4

68 Electoral votes (Approval Rating 39% or below)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________


270 is needed to win. WIth an approval rating at 50% or better in states totally 215 electoral college votes, the President would only need 55 more for re-election.

Looking at the board realistically, winning any of the following states in any combination totaling 55 electoral votes will ensure a second term.


Iowa (49/42) 6

Pennsylvania (48/44) 20

Georgia (48/44) 16

Ohio (45/47) 18

Florida (47/45) 29

North Carolina (46/46) 15

Virginia (46/47) 13

New Mexico (46/47) 5

Nevada (44/48) 6

Arizona (44/48) 11

Colorado (44/48) 9

Oregon (44/48) 7

New Hampshire (40/52) 4


Finally, we have to remember this is just his approval rating. With these current numbers the President stands alone. When the President is matched with an opponent (Romney/Perry) my bet would be his standing will go up. Historically speaking, compared to where Bush 0'4, Clinton '96 and even Reagan '84 were, Obama is in excellent shape.

In fact Obama could actually lose Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania and would still win the Presidency by winning North Carolina (15), Virginia (13) Colorado (9) and Oregon (7) New Mexico (6) and Nevada (6)...... Total 56 (56+215=271) DO A DOUBLE TAKE ON THAT!

:-)

I was curious, so I added. The states where Obama has a net favorable rating >0 are worth 301 electoral votes. The states where he has a positive rating >50 are worth 215 electoral votes.

reminder to self, never visit these hostile states.