TPM: It's a race. Elizabeth Warren holds slim two point lead over Scott Brown!

09.20.2011 — 11:29 AM
IT'S A RACE

A new poll out of Massachusetts shows Elizabeth Warren with a slim two point lead over Sen. Scott Brown (R). That's basically a tie race, but considerably ahead of where Warren's been in the previous polls. The last time the pollster, PPP, surveyed the race Brown had a 15 point lead.

— Josh Marshall

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/09/its_a_race_2.php?ref=fpblg

September 20, 2011

Warren takes lead on Brown

Elizabeth Warren has had an incredibly successful launch to her Senate campaign and actually leads Scott Brown now by a 46-44 margin, erasing what was a 15 point deficit the last time we polled the state in early June.

Warren's gone from 38% name recognition to 62% over the last three months and she's made a good first impression on pretty much everyone who's developed an opinion about her during that period of time. What was a 21/17 favorability rating in June is now 40/22- in other words she's increased the voters with a positive opinion of her by 19% while her negatives have risen only 5%.

The surprising movement toward Warren has a lot to do with her but it also has a lot to do with Scott Brown. We now find a slight plurality of voters in the state disapproving of him- 45%, compared to only 44% approving. We have seen a steady decline in Brown's numbers over the last 9 months. In early December his approval was a +24 spread at 53/29. By June it had declined to a +12 spread at a 48/36. And now it's continued that fall to its current place.

Brown's position has always been a little tenuous as a Republican in a strongly Democratic state, making him very dependent on the support of Obama voters to stay above ground. In June he was at 72/17 with McCain voters and now he's at 74/18, pretty much the same. But with Obama voters he's gone from 35/48 to 27/62, accounting for the entire drop in his overall approval numbers. It's a similar story when you look at the horse race numbers. Last time Brown led Warren 87-6 with McCain voters and now it's 87-9. But with Obama voters Warren's turned what was only a 47-24 lead into a 68-20 one.

more...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/warren-takes-lead-on-brown.html

That's a slim margin, but again, for a non-incumbent liberal it's pretty remarkable.

And though Warren would be just one Senator we actually could see her working with tea party types in opposing bailouts, and other areas kneecapping the strength of big banks, even if ostensibly they were opposed on regulatory issues like Dodd-Frank.