Its the stock market stupid.

from Yahoo news..

Pretty much since the day he was elected president of the United States in November 2008, Barack Obama has been the favorite on prediction markets like Intrade and Betfair to win re-election for a second term, as most incumbents do. That changed in September and October, when the budget stalemate and grim economic news turned Obama, for the first time, into an underdog.

But after bottoming out on October 8, when the prediction markets gave him a 48 percent chance of winning re-election, Obama has slowly and steadily climbed back to his August levels. His current odds, computed as an average of Intrade and Betfair, give him a 51.4 percent chance to win.

Obama's poll results and approval ratings are ticking up now, too. While it's tempting to credit scandals (exhibit C and G) or infighting among Obama's potential Republican rivals, or Republican stubbornness in the ongoing deficit reduction debate, the simplest explanation harkens back to the signature phrase of Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign, "It's the economy, stupid."

Brighter economic news and the prospect of a decent holiday season have handicappers wagering that economic conditions, or at least momentum, will be sufficient next fall that many voters will consider themselves better off in 2012 than 2008, and pull the lever for Obama.



http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/why-obama-underdog-october-favorite-once-more-190454967.html

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Like or not people view the stock market as an indicator of the health of the nation... although in reality its more an indicator of the health of companies. But regardless it affects voters.