To those who think O is a shoe in

for 2012, I have to offer this analogy.

Remember the days of the Senior Bush. He just "won" the first Gulf War, and none thought they could win against him. Many people that were considered serious contenders for the Oval Office, like Mario Cuomo, stayed home, waiting for the next election. However, Bush had two problems, one, the economy was not doing well, and two, he had a lot of opposition, both from Liberals, but also within his own ranks. After all, he had inflamed his base by failing to live up to his campaign promise of "no new taxes" and many stalwarts plotted in secret to destroy him.

Then along came Bill Clinton. Slick, knowing to to exploit people's anger. Remember how he told jerry brown "you are from California, chill out." That was a well known example of what DU would later call "hippie punching." It played well, because, sad to say, America loves a guy that knows how to act like a dumb, alpha-male redneck.

Of course, we all know how that worked out.

Just a bunch of whiney crybabies.

The economy is still weak and Citizens United will mean there will be limitless resources against him.

offer someone with the substance of a Clinton. Instead they have a Klown Kar selection of wacky, possible candidates, none of whom remotely could beat Obama.

some serious wounds,Ross Perot peeled off votes. I'm not expecting a primary challenge or a third party candidate posed to peel off votes from democrats.

to come in and take his votes away. The only talk so far of a third party has been from Repubes, which will just take votes away from their own candidates.

The comparisons to Bush in 1992 aren't fair without accounting for the Perot factor. If you can explain that to us, we'll take your post seriously, otherwise you're just offering the same lame comparison others have tried and all it proves is that you don't know what you're talking about.

He could pull away many people who would never vote GOP, but hate Obama.

There is absolutely no way Bloomberg could hurt Obama MORE than he would hurt a Repube candidate.

You over estimate the intelligence of people.

I will toss another one...Nader.

Nader never had any problem taking GOP money, and they could float him as he eats votes...

I will throw in another,

Hillary,

and don;t tell me about how she said she would not run. The truth is whatever the Clintons make it, period, and she would not have any problem taking dirty money from the Koch brothers.

And last, but far from least, a doomsday gun the GOP can fire.

Connie Rice, aka, someone who could dig lots of racial wounds.

and at long last

Liz Cheney, who could offer the LGBT community the promise of Gay marriage.

Then you go off and list a handful of people who aren't going to run for Pres in a million years, expecially against President Obama....ok, maybe Nader, but I think even he knows that 2016 is the more likely bet for a 3rd party candidate than 2012.

There will be no LOGICAL 3rd party candidate in 2012. It would be a waste of money and time and everyone knows it.

I think you meant... "shoo-in".

:hi:

but usually I keep my mouth shut. Glad you caught it.

There's no third party insurgent candidate anywhere, and Poppy was really at the end of a 12 year term, counting his time with the Reagan administration. Although I despise the murder of bin Laden, I know that in this country that will count for 15-20% of the vote anywhere. Obama will be re-elected handily in 2012 over some washed-up Republican candidate who will run simply because the Republicans have to put up somebody.

And in the role of Bob Dole.............I'm predicting it will be Romney. Obama in a landslide.

But I'm guessing his religious predilections coupled with his record in Massachusetts will be enough to deny Willard the Republican nomination. Gingrich would be a good fit, and like McCain in 2008, Gingrich might get in, get out, and get back in when it appears that nobody is rallying the necessary support. Mitch Daniels is being courted by some insiders, and unless he has delusions of serious political prospects (which prospects I don't think he has), he might be inveigled into being the victim of this train wreck.

or 1984.

Clinton was qualified and not a wacko. Check out the Republican field. Do you see anyone who's even in the same ZIP CODE as that?

The Pubbies have no one... and it's clear they won't run anyone except their most expendable in this race. If they had a viable candidate they thought could take this, they would run that person. All we are seeing is bottom of the barrel scrapings.

You are absolutely correct here. This is a complete throw away for them, which is why I'm guessing Romney will run but won't try very hard and we'll end up with a Gingrich or Guiliani or someone that will get some excitement but doesn't really have a chance. Then we'll see their "real" candidates come back to the forefront again in 2016.

But if Obama kicks ass and takes names, as he should in this second term, he could easily clear the way for another Dem Prez.

But that's speculation... running the expendables is clearly what the GOTP are doing now. Good way to ruin a brand... but hey, I'm all for that too!

However, Bill Clinton was the Michael Jordan of politics. If you think there's anyone in the current republican field with anything close to that level of skill, please, do tell.

The election isn't in the bag, but the GOP is a fucking mess. That helps us.

You never can tell.

But seriously: thanks for good post.

But if you mean "shoo-in", I agree.

Jesus returns, faithful teleported off Earth, President Of United States turned into a shoe.

so many ...so little time

oops, make that etymology. ;)

(it's a lot harder to screw these words up if you know where they come from.)

and may not see them written..

My brother thought for the longest time (as a child) that the wording in the prayer was "deliver us from eagles"..:rofl:

GHWB was clueless about the economic conditions around him, and was actually a terrible campaigner. While you can argue that Obama's strategies aren't working or aren't popular, people aren't going to complain that he's "out of touch" or that he can't deliver his message.

H Ross Perot

It always is.

award delegates as winner take all. Provided two or three candidates trade off the number one spot, one candidate could continually take 2nd place and win the nomination.

Your analysis is deeply flawed

The mayoral election here in Jacksonville was a prime example. Don't sit on your laurels, don't shy away from speeches and debates, show up at every function and beat down doors to meet the people. In this day and age of skepticism, folks want a warm hand to shake and a listening ear. You still have to earn their vote.

you could name between now and nov 2012.