is your assertion here:
"...5) True, but the likelihood of a future earthquake of sufficient magnitude to cause additional damage is very low now that the aftershock period has passed..."
I do not share your opinion here, and thankfully for them, neither do the Japanese. None of us want to see any recurrence of March 11 any time soon, but truth be known, no one can predict. What the experts in Japan that have been studying this longer than anyone else in the world have these things to say about the biggest pending quake, which to some is now overdue:
"The Tokai earthquakes are major earthquakes that have occurred regularly with an interval of 100 to 150 years in the Tōkai region of Japan. The Tokai segment has been struck by earthquakes in 1498, 1605, 1707 and 1854.<1> Given the historic regularity of these earthquakes, another is expected in the near future, as was first predicted by Kiyoo Mogi in 1969.<2>
Given the magnitude of the last two earthquakes, the next is expected to be at least a magnitude 8, with large areas shaken at an intensity of 7, the highest level in the Japanese intensity scale. Emergency planners are anticipating and preparing for potential scenarios after such an earthquake, including the possibility of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of injuries, millions of damaged buildings, and cities that include Nagoya and Shizuoka devastated. Concern has been expressed over the presence of the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant which has been built close to the centre of the expected earthquake...
...The pattern of historical seismicity reveals that the megathrust surface is segmented, with five separate zones of rupturing identified, conventionally labeled A–E, from west to east.<3> Earthquakes involving the A+B segments are generally referred to as Nankai (literally South Sea) earthquakes, C+D Tonankai (literally Southeast Sea) earthquakes and E Tokai (literally East Sea) earthquakes. The earthquake repeat intervals are generally in the range 90–200 years.
On all but one occasion, rupture of segment C (±D ±E) has been followed by rupture of segments A+B within a few years. This behavior has been reproduced by modeling the viscoelastic response of the megathrust fault plane with lateral variations in both convergence rate and frictional properties..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokai_earthquakes"...On all but one occasion, rupture of segment C (±D ±E) has been followed by rupture of segments A+B within a few years..."
I just wanted to point that out from the above for emphasis.
The Tokai Earthquake of 20xx
"The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 25 years.
All of Japan is earthquake country, but its most dangerous part is on the Pacific coast of the main island Honshu, just southwest of Tokyo. Here the Philippine plate is moving under the Eurasian plate in an extensive subduction zone. From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment...
...The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2005, it has been 151 years and counting...
...Professor Ishibashi is now at the University of Kobe, and perhaps that name rings a bell: Kobe was the site of a devastating quake in 1995 that the Japanese know as the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. In Kobe alone, 4571 persons died and more than 200,000 were housed in shelters; in total, 6430 people were killed. More than 100,000 houses collapsed. Millions of homes lost water, power or both. Some $150 billion in damage was recorded. The other benchmark Japanese quake was the Kanto earthquake of 1923. That event killed more than 120,000 people. The Hanshin-Awaji earthquake was magnitude 7.3. Kanto was 7.9. But at 8.4, the Tokai Earthquake will be substantially larger..."
http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htmThey had the Hamaoka nuke plant shut for this reason, I believe, fears of a pending Tokai quake, now somewhat due:
More than 60% of voters support Hamaoka nuclear plant shutdown
2011/05/17
"...Forty-three percent of respondents said they supported nuclear power generation. Of those, 59 percent said they "positively evaluated" Kan's request to shut down all reactors at the Hamaoka plant in Omaezaki, Shizuoka Prefecture, which lies in the projected focal region of the long-expected Tokai earthquake. Thirty percent said they did not "positively evaluate" it.
Chubu Electric Power Co. acceded to Kan's request and shut down all reactors at the Hamaoka plant by May 14.
Sixty-four percent of respondents living in the area served by the utility "positively evaluated" Kan's request, while 25 percent did not. That was roughly in line with the national trend.
Kan did not ask other nuclear power plants to shut down because they were not considered to pose the same risks as the Hamaoka plant. Forty-nine percent of respondents supported that policy, and 26 percent were opposed..."
http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201105160093.html I prefer to consider the occurrence of another quake in one of the other subduction zones in the region as a distinct possiblity sooner rather than later. Sorry.
rdb