Asking you to predict the future: Which outcome seems more likely to you at this time?

Note: Current math suggests there is little chance we retain the Senate.

The GOP is doing all of the damage to themselves and I see no end in sight. If one of the dumbfucks (which is all they have now) goes up against Obama, his coattails will play heavily into the election. How the hell is the GOP going to get any enthusiasm for the idiots they're fronting?

They are counting on the media to shift the blame for the resulting economic chaos onto Obama.

I'm looking at a Government shutdown come August. Basically, there are a bunch of GOP Housemembers that see this as a test of wills to cut the social safety net. They steadfastly refuse to raise taxes on the wealthy, and really don't care who among the non-wealthy gets hurt.

It makes the rest of the party look bad and they get swept out like in 2008.

right on

..the American people have shown no stomach for ending Medicare as we know it, and it may become a game changer in House elections.

Note also that House & Senate Republicans should consider this before stonewalling the debt ceiling: Remember that campaign finance opinion that the President called out SCOTUS over at the SOTU a while back? Consider this: an angry Chinese government can now generously fund the election campaigns of anyone who votes to disrupt repayments (do you understand what I'm saying, teabaggers?). It's a thought that should scare the Hell out of Dems as well, but the door is now open. It's better for everyone if both parties come together and settle this without disrupting world financial markets, and having a massive infusion of foreign currency into our elections.

As I recall, the latter half of the '90s were pretty sweet economically, with jobs available and a surplus, too.

I don't usually get pissed, but that was waay too much for me.

Obama wins, the Dems increase their majority in the Senate and regain the majority in the House.

Isn't it odd that you left that choice out of your push poll? Well, maybe not that odd...

While anything is possible in politics. Your scenario is a fantasy at the present time.

By "we" I mean actual Democrats, of course.

We can do it.

Work in your own precinct and district. Just call the local Democratic organization and get involved. People talking to people, on an individual basis does the trick.

I've been doing that for years, and it really, really works. But, you can't wait for others to do it. You have to do it yourself.

I just wonder why you feel obligated to tell me what to do.

It's a suggestion. You will do as you please. It's interesting that you can't see that I did not tell you what to do. A suggestion is just a suggestion.

I needed to choose to act as you suggested, without ever considering that I may already be involved as you suggest.

I assume nothing, nor was I writing only for your eyes. You have a great afternoon, now, if you choose.

I have the greatest respect for those who are able to do this effectively.

To be able to develop instant rapport with a total stranger and to actually overcome the FauxNoise brainwashing would be awesome.

But how many actually have the ability to do that? I sure don't.

people who weren't going to bother voting to go vote. That's the goal. I don't waste much time on Republicans when I'm precinct walking. I'm focusing on people who would vote for Democrats if they go to the polls but who aren't planning to vote. Those people make the difference. We turned out 60% in our precinct in 2010, when other precincts had lower turnouts. Democrats all won their races with a 60% majority in that same precinct. It just works.

I agree with everything you say re: "people who would vote for Democrats if they go to the polls but who aren't planning to vote", but would add one wrinkle for this upcoming election. The GOP will again be very focused on voter documentation. I'd suggest that we're going to need to make efforts to ensure Dems who want to vote a) get registered if they aren't already b) don't have the registration card from two apartments back, and c) have whatever ID the law will require.

It's very possible.

us to vote for that option, or it would have been included in the push poll in the OP. Very odd, that....or not.

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I don't see it as highly likely, but I hope you are right.

The Ritch vs everyone else.

I hope it never ever ever comes to that. We would be annihilated.


We've got the cities, but they've got the nukes. :nuke:

Out in the sticks, the Fundies have us outnumbered and outgunned.

There's been a lot of talk about repeal of the 14th Amendment, ostensibly about citizenship. I think this is the real issue:

Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void

I think a bunch of states (Texas and SoCar, chiefly) may threaten to walk and say they never wanted the "liberal programs" responsible for the debt, and basically say they are independent and don't owe the money.

Leaving the option out of your poll tells us a great deal. Your note doesn't correct the "error."

I can pretty much guarantee Kent Conrad's and Ben Nelson's seats leaving.

We've got a so-so chance of picking off Scott Brown and Heller (Ensign's old seat). I'm not seeing a pickup of Kyl's seat unless (and this is pure wishful thinking) Mark Kelly decides to go for the seat (I wish Gabby Gifford's was ready to take on that challenge, but she's just not there yet).

Whichever (R) gets nominated for Baily Hutchison's seat will win -- let's not kid ourselves. Here's the rest of the GOP field: Lugar, Snowe, Wicker, Corker, Hatch, and Barrasso. With the exception of maybe Corker, none of these folks are going anywhere.

On the flipside, at least five Dems are very vulnerable: Tester, McCaskill, Sherrod Brown, Cantwell, and Manchin will all get very hard fights. Webb's seat will be tough to keep. I've already mentioned Ben Nelson.

I'd have put Kohl's seat in the vulnerable column, but the R's have shot themselves in the foot in WI. Stabenow may have problems, but I think can still win. Klobuchar, and Casey may get threatened, but should survive.

I would say a net loss of 4 is likely.

is a mistake. It's a long time until the election. My point is that your poll did not include all the possibilities.

Is that too much to ask for? If there's one principle that I live by, even as I disparage the very notion, it is blind, unrealistic optimism. Somewhere in the near future, a decent looking woman is gonna fall in love with me and we will live generally happily ever after. I am gonna live to a ripe old age, at least a few days after my 75th birthday, and the world will solve all of its problems of population, war, poverty, pollution, warming, and energy and join the Federation of planets as a valuable partner to the Vulcans. If I thought too much about what probably will happen, I'd probably blow my brains out or something.

So don't tell me what the math says. I don't even want to think about Republicans controlling the House and Senate. Before anybody resigns themselves to "what probably will happen" I want to see some sort of action plan for the best way to avoid this scenario.

Further prediction: Politicians, pundits, and assorted others will express wonderment at the lower turnout and offer explanations other than "I didn't want to".

Who shows up is the real question.

to eliminate elections as part of its new efficiency in government agenda. Institutes a form of American Idol as new way of "electing" leaders. 95% of the population does not notice.

but because our margins are so thin we still can't get anything really progressive done and we continue to make smaller incremental improvements that most liberals can't seem to grasp.

I'm still not seeing us keeping the Senate. I am willing to entertain retaking the House, however. I think their will be some Teabagger blowback.