this is from 2007, still relevant IMO.
We're Swimming In Liquidity, Aren't We?
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2007archives/mofeb07.htmCharts at link.
"...But what we don’t know is how households/consumers will react ahead as, very much unlike the financial markets, they are not swimming in liquidity. Not by a long shot. At least not relative to the context of history. It’s probably been a year and a half or more since we’ve touched on this subject. Given our fixation on the residential real estate cycle being an asset class capable of behavior modification when it comes to the US consumer, we need to fully recognize that US household excess liquidity availability has largely been driven by the monetization of asset inflation in both equities late last decade and residential real estate in the current, to say nothing of additional leverage assumption.
In literally point blank terms, the following chart documents just how important stock and real estate asset inflation has been to growth in household net worth by the decade over the last half century-plus. As is clear, real estate and equities have never been more meaningful to aggregate household net worth expansion than is the case in the current decade. Hence, incredibly meaningful to consumer behavior.
If indeed we will be seeing a slowing in the growth of household asset inflation ahead, as sure appears to be the case at this point, just where will consumers find their next source of liquidity? Although we sure wish we had an answer to that question, maybe more important is to at least be aware of current circumstances regarding household liquid assets. For if continued household asset inflation is at any point a non-starter anywhere ahead, household liquidity will either be what's on the books of household balance sheets right now, or ever more leverage assumption. It's either one of the two. As you know, God forbid there is any deflation in either household residential real estate holdings or equity values.
We'll make this relatively quick. The pictures tell the story in a big way. Moreover, this is in part a review of data we showed you over a year and one half ago. Trends have just gotten a good bit more extreme.
...Boom, Boom, Out Go The Lights?...So why is all of this discussion about household liquidity important? What does it mean to our investing activities ahead and the broad economy in general? Although this is somewhat of a generic comment, we believe the significance of these trends find their meaning in demographics. In very simple terms, we know that the baby boom generation is moving full speed ahead into retirement years. Point blank, assuming the boomers in aggregate actually do retire, their need for real liquidity will be meaningful. Very meaningful. Remember, we're referring to a baby boom generation who has "learned" to become relatively dependent on asset inflation for a good many years now to generate household "liquidity". Asset inflation that has truly acted to underpin consumption. Unless we can bank on asset inflation continuing, implying that asset inflation will "fund" boomer retirements as it has clearly funded their lifestyles for at least a good decade now, just where will retirement funds/liquidity come from? This is the issue, and it's clearly of longer term importance as opposed to being something influencing the open of trading tomorrow morning. Can the Fed fund boomer retirements by simply printing money and inciting ever greater household asset inflation? Can the boomers "borrow" their retirement lifestyles as they have done up to this point by taking on ever greater household leverage? ..."