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To DU financial types, will the market start to crash on Monday?

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Drahthaardogs Donating Member (482 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:13 PM
Original message
To DU financial types, will the market start to crash on Monday?
Just curious if the precipitous fall starts before an actual default since it looks like no debt reduction deal will happen and it is 50/50 if the ceiling is raised independent of a reduction.
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RKP5637 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
1. Glad you asked this, I've been wondering the same. The track record to date
makes the US look very unstable, if I were a huge investor I would have shaken confidence by now just in the way all of this is being handled.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
15. If interest rates on treasuries go up significantly, I will be a buyer. / nt
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no_hypocrisy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
2. You'll know by 9:35.
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Drahthaardogs Donating Member (482 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:22 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I am betting it starts tanking right off the bat and they have to stop trading
However, I am a lowly engineer, so my grasp of the financials is lacking.
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no_hypocrisy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I figure 9:35 b/c everyone will have been watching the Asian and European markets
starting at 9 a.m. EST tomorrow.
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FreakinDJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:23 PM
Response to Original message
4. Asian Markets were up Friday
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-24-11 12:43 AM
Response to Reply #4
21. Asian markets were closed when Obama had his presser
(it was Saturday morning in Asia during his presser)
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former9thward Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:23 PM
Response to Original message
5. No crash.
If Boner comes up with some plan on Sunday, as he says he will, it will probably rally everything else being equal.
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FLPanhandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
7. You can watch the futures market for an indication
So far it's not really showing an impact. Also watch the US dollar / Euro exchange rate. Holding steady.
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-24-11 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #7
22. None of the markets are open today.
Check back Sunday afternoon.
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
8. No, it will not
It will fall maybe 180-220 points in the first 30 minutes should there be no sign of a deal, but will then stabilize, ending up down about 130 for the day.

:-)

I can also tell you some of Monday's baseball scores if you're interested.
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Drahthaardogs Donating Member (482 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Nah, baseball is boring
Lotto numbers though, you got any of those? I am not greedy either, I don't need Powerball numbers. A simple little state lottery will do me just fine.
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Brigid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. How about the Cubbies score?
:evilgrin:
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 10:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
18. Went to the game today, actually
Monday's score will be 0-0.

According to my brilliant foresight, I predict that the Cubbies won't be playing at all on Monday.

:-)
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Brigid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. How about the Cubbies score?
:evilgrin:
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TomClash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
10. No crash
But it might decline quite a bit. On Friday hedging strategies were activated to short Treasuries.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
13. Why would it?
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dawg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
14. Who knows? In the short-term, it's all psychology.
Edited on Sat Jul-23-11 08:33 PM by dawg
In the long-term, I'm not all that worried. All this is for show. Deal or no deal, the debt-limit will eventually be raised. There will be no true default.
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 08:57 PM
Response to Original message
16. Maybe.
Boehner's Market Signals? Did August 2nd Just Become Tomorrow?

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/07/boehners-market-signals-did-august-2nd-just-become-tomorrow/242413/
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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 09:55 PM
Response to Original message
17. Yes and no
It's not clear whether the Asian and European markets for their stocks and bonds will be much affected.

However, US stock market futures trading before the bell will tell the story. Chances are that they would be down sharply before the open. Most of the movement would be baked in before the US markets open. Same thing with treasuries. It would be all over before the US markets open.

So the US stocks and bond on the Asian and European exchanges crash before the US exchanges open for trading. Small US investors that don't trade globally get screwed.
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-24-11 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #17
23. Not true.
That's not how it works.
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cbdo2007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-23-11 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
19. Yes, on Monday the stock market will go down to 0.
hahahahahaha

No one knows what the market will do. Anyone who thinks they do will put a lot of money on it and then it will surely go the other way.
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-24-11 12:41 AM
Response to Original message
20. The market will selloff bigtime on Monday
if there's no agreement by then. Default has gone from a minuscule possibility to a real possibility and the markets have not priced that in, assuming everything till now had been political posturing and a deal would get done. The press conference by Obama was scary in that regard. Watch the futures and currency markets on Sunday afternoon to get an idea. The dollar will selloff and bond yields will soar I expect.
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