Study: Climate Change to Increase Yellowstone Wildfires Dramatically

MERCED — An increase in wildfires due to climate change could rapidly and profoundly alter the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, according to a new study authored by environmental engineering and geography Professor Anthony Westerling of the University of California, Merced.

The study by Westerling and his colleagues — which will be published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences — suggests that the expected rising temperatures caused by climate change could increase the frequency of large wildfires in Yellowstone to an unprecedented level.

The projected increase in fires would likely cause a major shift in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with fewer dense forests and more open woodland, grass and shrub vegetation. The change could happen by 2050, Westerling posits, with forests becoming younger, the mix of tree species changing and some forests failing to regenerate after repeated fires. This would affect the region's wildlife, hydrology, carbon storage and aesthetics.

"What surprised us about our results was the speed and scale of the projected changes in fire in Greater Yellowstone," Westerling said. "We expected fire to increase with increased temperatures, but we did not expect it to increase so much or so quickly. We were also surprised by how consistent the changes were across different climate projections."

http://www.ucmerced.edu/news_articles/07252011_study_climate_change_to.asp