Cowgirl's Morning LIne--Debt Limit Stakes

So what happens next as our long national soap opera goes on to the next stage. Here are the odds as I see it. Thought everyone could use a little laugh at this point.

1. 10-1
Tea Partiers wail and rant and Liberals threaten to defect but Boehner and Pelosi manage to corral their respective caucuses into voting for it. It gets rushed to Obama's desk for signature right before the deadline. Our respective leaders fall over themselves to hit the microphones to give themselves credit for saving the nation from default.

2. 5-1
Tea Party wackadoodles and mainstream Republicans who fear a primary threat more than they fear throwing the nation into depression joined by a few pissed off liberals block passage throwing the leadership once again into turmoil.

Analysis: Based on past performance the Tea Party Caucus are the rarest thing ever seen in Washington--TRUE BELIEVERS. They don't care if they got most of what they wanted. They wouldn't care if they got everything they wanted. They want it all and more and if they don't get it they'll happily throw the entire country into the second coming of the Great Depression or at the very least send everyone in the nation's credit card rates up into the stratosphere, damage our national image and throw a whole bunch of people out of work. They will do this and loudly blame this on Obama and the Democrats and Illegal Aliens and Space Aliens and the Federal Reserve and for all I know Thomas Jefferson and Harry Potter. If this plan somehow passes, I give even odds for the mad rush to the microphones.

If as I predict, the plan fails to pass the House here are the odds on what follows.

1. 25-1
President Obama in effect gives Republicans in Congress the universal American salute and invokes the 14th amendment. That sound you hear are conservative members of the Supreme Court preparing to pull the rug out from under him.

2. 50-1
President Obama in effect gives Republicans in Congress the universal American salute and sends a message demanding a clean debt limit bill. The first things he orders cut under his new emergency authority are agribusiness subsidies, gas company giveaways and the salaries of Members of Congress. Tea Party members, faced with this threat back down.

2. 20-1
President Obama in effect gives Republicans in Congress the universal American salute and sends a message demanding a clean debt limit bill. The first things he orders cut under his new emergency authority are agribusiness subsidies, gas company giveaways and the salaries of Members of Congress. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner invite the Tea Party Caucus to a pizza party, lock them in the room and call a quickie vote. That sound you hear are Democrats falling down in a dead faint at this show of strength from our national leaders.

3. 5-1
President Obama summons congressional leaders to the White House for more meetings during which more plans are developed and just as quickly rejected. That sound you hear is China backing up the People's Republic Repo truck. Hang on to your 401Ks kids--this is going to get ugly.

4. 20-1
President Obama summons congressional leaders to the White House for more meetings during which more plans are developed and just as quickly rejected. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner invite the Tea Party Caucus to a pizza party, lock them in the room and call a quickie vote. That sound you hear is fire trucks rushing to the capital to put out the fire when they get out and set John Boehner's drapes on fire.

4. 25-1
President Obama summons congressional leaders to the White House for more meetings during which he swears on to never raise taxes on anyone who can afford a Lexus, promises to convert Social Security into a market based plan which requires Senior Citizens to knit golf club cozies for CEOs to get a few crumbs of bread and some cold soup to keep them going one more day, and falls on his knees before a statue of Ayn Rand promising to use his next 100 weekly addresses to do a live reading of "Atlas Shrugged". This is rejected by the Republican caucus on the ground that he failed offer the life of his dog Bo as security for his pledges. This is considered a major compromise from the Tea Party who wanted him to pledge the life of his first born daughter.

Analysis: Nothing in President Obama's past performance so far indicates staying power in a tough negotiation. Being reasonable is in his DNA and he is incapable of seeing that some people will not be reasonable no matter what he does to appease them. I also really think he loves his dog and needless to say his daughters so there are limits to what he will do to placate the wackadoodles. I do think that he would kneel before the statue of Ayn Rand and do a marathon reading of Atlas Shrugged if he thought it would gain him some concessions and avoid Great Depression Part II. Likewise compromise is not in the Tea Party wackadoodles DNA. Republican leaders are scared to tears of the Tea Party on one hand and Wall Street on the other. They are about as powerful as a rottweiler with his teeth pulled. Could Obama summon the guts he needed to order the Navy Seal hit on Osama Bin Laden and stand up to these guys? Stranger things have happened but the past performances don't bode well for anyone.

A great leader lets their people know where they are going
and leads by example

Where is this leader going??

A great leader does not blame their non-fighting stance on the other side being so scary..........

The only way you get to be President or in a leadership position in Congress is to insure the Powers That Be that you are not a threat to the. Barak Obama is not going to give the great full-throated populist battle cry that I would like to see him give. If he were to do so his source of funding, hence his power, will be eliminated. The PTB have supported, if not created the Tea Party. They may, or at least some of them may, be regretting this now. Frankenstein's monster is loose.