Hardly any cuts now, most in trigger happen after 2013 when Bush tax cuts expire.

As explained at length on Sunday, most of the projected savings from this plan will come from a new Congressional committee, tasked with finding at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction, either from entitlement cuts, or tax increases or both. If that committee gridlocks, or Congress doesn't pass its recommendations, or President Obama vetoes that package, it will trigger automatic, broad cuts to both defense and domestic programs. Most of that will come from defense spending and from Medicare providers. The bad news is, there's no tax revenue in the triggers, so no guarantee anywhere that the truly wealthy will have to contribute to deficit reduction. The good news is, the breakdown of this enforcement mechanism is fairly progressive, given that it's all cuts. It amounts mostly to a two percent cut for Medicare providers, and a whopping $500 billion in defense cuts over 10 years. Programs for the poor and for veterans and Social Security and Medicaid are all cordoned off. The added bonus here is this means influential defense hawks, and the interests that back them, will do whatever they can to force the committee to pass a bipartisan fiscal plan, even if it means picking a fight with anti-tax Republicans. The other added bonus is that these "sequestered" cuts won't take effect until 2013 -- the same time the Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/reid-agrees-to-major-debt-limit-deal----heres-what-hes-signed-off-on.php

They won't be allowed to expire.

"RE-ELECT OBAMA, AND YOUR TAXES WILL SKYROCKET!!! IS THAT WHAT YOU REALLY WANT?"

The WH will do ANYTHING they possibly can to avoid the possibility of this, like the Repukes won't run this commercial anyway.

Another "deal" will be struck.

("Overseas Contingency Operations") funds for supplementals that would reverse Defence/Homeland Security trigger cuts? Someone on MSNBC today said that OCO has grown to a TRILLION DOLLARS.

On CSPAN-2, Joe Lieberman is crying about the risk to Defense and Homeland Security (which as Senate Committee chair doubtless are big sources of "contributor" funds for his pending retirement).