Emily is not curving northwards as expected, says Jeff Masters.

Snips:
"This indicates that Emily is not curving northwards as expected.
This makes me more skeptical of the computer model forecasts that pull Emily to the northwards sharply towards the southeast coast of Florida before recurving out to sea. "

"The forecast tracks provided by the suite of simpler models, the Beta and Advection Models and CLIPER, disagree. They have Emily taking a much more gradual turn to the north, thus moving northwest across Cuba. Given that these models have done a better job of predicting Emily's westwards track, I'm inclined to place more confidence in their predictions.
However, the further west Emily goes, the chance that Emily makes landfall in Florida (due to a recurve) goes up. People with interests in Cuba and south Florida should keep an eye on this storm."


Intensity:
"If Emily's circulation can survive the mountains of Hispaniola and/or the terrain of Cuba, conditions are favorable for moderate intensification."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Looks like So. Fla. is going to get SOMETHING no matter what by Sat.

many computer lines going, who knows?

but I wonder if it's the temperature differential that drives cyclonic activity northward (in the northern hemisphere, that is), as that's where generally cooler air masses lie. With the record-breaking heat waves that have engulfed much of the US, there's not such a thermodynamic drive to seek equilibrium with cooler air to the north, so the cyclone languishes in the same lower latitudes.

If anyone has a better understanding, just let me know I'm talking out my ass...politely, of course ;-)

:hi:

Everyone is watching Emily - where is she going. We're expecting rain tonight.

are having more trouble.

...except for Don.