Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.

That's the Latin expression of the day. The stock market is dropping, and that's because:

Well...it's because of whatever thing everyone wants it to be because of, it seems.

The debt ceiling bill.
The Treasury Secretary.
The European crisis.
The Long Hot Spell.
The Texas Drought.
The Vikings Hiring McNabb as quarterback.
Welfare Cadillacs.
The boil on my ass.


Yes sir, we're in full Post hoc ergo propter hoc mode this afternoon. Anyone else have a candidate for the cause of the market tumble? Anything will do. Whatever you don't like that happened is surely the reason for the performance of the Dow today.

So, let's hear yours.

Folks: Correlation doesn't imply causation. It really doesn't.

The month of August starts.. The market drops..


It's all augusts' fault

...sensitive to national/international news.

Not the boil on your ass, not the Vikings quarterback. You just wrap up the reasonable causes (debt ceiling bill, treasury secretary, etc.) with hyperbole (ass boils, football) in order to discount their influence.

Nice attempt though, but the kinds of misdirections such as yours (kind of by nature) involve a certain construction, a certain bundling or conflation for whatever argumentative ends, which gives itself away.

PB

a depression on the horizon.

The federal government can't govern because of the faith in ideology on the right and the lack of spine on the left. There is no way this government can prevent a collapse if it's going to happen.

And on the State level jobs are disappearing as fast as Raid takes out ants. We are headed for a dead stop and there is no way to get it moving again.

Only if the investor class decides to stop backing the right will they ever grow their wealth as much as it can. There is a limit to all this corporatism.

But there's more than just a "correlation" here. The estimate is that the debt-ceiling bill will carve 150 basis points off GDP growth. That equals recession.

I've seen enough self-professed 'experts' in the field of economics fall flat on their faces to convince me that anyone who claims to have all the answers is not worthy of my time or attention - and that includes quite a few with 'PhD Econ' after their names. Hell, no less than Warren Buffett was quoted not more than a month ago as telling investors to 'bet heavily against a double-dip recession.' As I said earlier, I'm no market maven, but am I to surmise that Warren Effin Buffett was (a) gone senile, (b) flat-ass wrong, (c) misquoted, (d) fishing-in those few remaining suckers who still have money or (e) patiently biding his time, waiting to be proven right? Just for an example, mind you.

:rofl:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/business/markets.html

Hi, MM!

:hi:

that they decided to stick with the formula. :rofl:

It's our punishment for not building them a fancy new stadium, I guess.

I mean, we've only been talking about the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the growing bubble in US equities for the last year now. We've only said there are no drivers for growth outside of government stimulus and once that's taken away, risk-off could cause a panic to the downside.

You chose to stick your head in the sand so don't play the "hoocoodanode" card now.

My comment is directed at people who are trying to assign this to individual issues. I've been reading that all week. This is a global downturn, and it has global causes. Individual events of the past couple of days aren't the cause. You seem to have missed my point, but that's OK.

Especially on a political discussion board. The nerve of some people.

Note the times, LOL! Full thread HERE

See how that works? Look at the OP's message and understand the technique: Wrap up valid possibilities with absurd ones, present the whole package as "clearly" filled with only absurd possibilities and do damage control on a flailing politician's bad choices.

PB

Or don't. It doesn't matter to me. The bottom line is that the cause is not a single thing, although the current European situation is one major factor. The passage of the debt ceiling bill isn't, so much.

The boil on my ass? Well, that has a very limited impact.

...choices.

:shrug:

You pretend that drawing conclusions about the cause of the market fall is an intellectually bankrupt exercise in logical fallacies- then turn right around and do the same thing your self. Using one of the very same examples you imply having equal importance to the boil on your ass.

Deceptive at best, don't you think? You just want things to be the way you want them to be and make others look silly or unintelligent by trying to cover your actions in an "educational" moment.

:puke:

PB

Again.

So when you say that I'm "wrong", don't you really just mean you don't like being caught in deceptive behavior?

PB

Maybe it's got something to do with consumers not having jobs?