Is the US headed for a prerevolutionary situation?

One of the four conditions of a revolutionary situation is the political class not being able to solve the inevitable capitalist crises that occur, which results in all of the classes losing faith in the SYSTEM itself.

I read this morning in the Tennessean that one projected reason for the wild swings of the stock market and the downgrade is the lack of faith by the investors in the political class's ability to solve the crises of capitalism that always occur.

Well, inasmuch as we are experiencing an economic crisis, it is not logical to expect solutions from the "political class."

Most of them are attorneys by "trade."

I saw a Rasmussen poll that said only 17% of Americans think their government has the consent of the governed. That sounds pretty pre-revolutionary to me, but it's a long way from ticking a box in a poll to blackening the White House.

I think the USA has a ways to go yet. I'd bet there won't be a revolution for at least 5, and maybe as long as 10 years. A coup d'etat is another story, of course - that has already happened.

I'd love to think that you Yanks are getting your revolutionary chops back, but I have to admit I don't really expect to see it any time soon.

Seems the only chops most of us are getting are porkchops.

Long time no see! :hi:

A crisis which capitalism will always provide. That's part of the system. The political class being totally impotent at solving the crisis, which we might have the glimmerings of, hence my OP. Three, ALL of the classes, INCLUDING the bourgeoisie, losing faith in the system itself. The article I read said that the investor class, who are DEFINITELY the big bourgeiosie, have lost faith in the political class. This is a little more iffy because you don't know if the investors have lost faith in the system or just the current actors in the system. Also, the classes have different ways to slove the problems with the system. The bourgeiosie favors fascism or Bonapartism for "stability", whereas the working class should favor a revolution to overthrow the system. And that's where the fourth condition comes into play, which is a revolutionary vanguard willing and able to overthrow the system. The vanguard doesn't have to be huge, but it does have to be big enough to act and it must have at least the TACIT approval of the masses. This would be a revolutionary situation. Anything less than these four conditions, but which involves SOME of these conditions, might make for a PRErevolutionary situation.

Tying into conditions three and four would be the mass of the populus feeling that they can't go on like this anymore. I think that the riots in Britian are something of a symptom of that. But of course that's in Britian. That hasn't happened here yet, which is why the situation is PRE revolutionary rather than revolutionary. Along with some of the other conditions. Just something to watch for as the future unfolds.

Based on your four conditions:

A crisis which capitalism will always provide.
I think this train is pulling into the station as we speak. I don't see it as "crisis of capitalism", since I use an ecological dialectic rather than a Marxist one, but since we live under a capitalist system it will certainly look like one.

The political class being totally impotent at solving the crisis.
I think this is a foregone conclusion. According to my read of the crisis, it goes a lot deeper than economics or social structure, though it subsumes both. The drivers of this crisis include biophysical issues like resourcw shortages, climate change and ecological breakdown, and so is intrinsically beyond the control of the political classes. Hell, most of them have no clue about the nature of the crisis that's breaking over them, how could they possibly resolve it?

ALL of the classes, INCLUDING the bourgeoisie, losing faith in the system itself.
We're nowhere close to that point yet in the USA and Canada, though they are much closer in Europe. The realization that the system is fundamentaly busted will take another 10 years of deepening crisis to sink in. I'd expect the faith to last for three more US presidential election cycles (i.e. until 2020), when it will finally dawn on most people that nobody is fixing things. In the interim the bourgeois preference for order and security will keep growing as it has since 9/11.

A revolutionary vanguard willing and able to overthrow the system.
Here is the rub. the plutocracy has apparently had enough warning to put countermeasures in place. Willingness has been short-circuited by consumerism (people with a little to lose are much more reluctant to storm the barricades) and propaganda (read about the Powell Memo for a look at how the propaganda has catapulted at every level). Ability has been countered by the buildup of the state security apparatus since 9/11. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have kept the troops sharp at the same time as they have instilled a level of fervent, troop-worshipping patriotism in the proletariat.

So while conditions are slowly ripening, I don't see much hope of a breakout before 2020. And even then it's going to be some ugly.

On edit: typos

but the bad news (as it were) is that it's the teabaggers.

their agenda, goals, and motivations are purely those of their capitalist controllers, with some racism tossed in to spice things up.

if/when a revolution against the wealthy occurs, count on those fools to be out in front, defending gated estates from the pitchforks and torches of the angry masses.

ownership fo the means of production. Thus, they are hardly 'revolutionary' as we have been using the term. If anything, the teabaggers run the gamut from libertarian to fascist -- but if they have to be labelled with a single word, I think the best one would be 'reactionary'.

especially the time frame. And that worries me because with a time frame that far out, it's more likely to be a bourgeoisie reaction like fascism or Bonapartism.

All the things you mentioned in the ecological crises are part of the economic system we're under. The reason we can't do anything about climate change because it fucking COSTS too much! Think about that a second. It costs too much to save the planet EVEN FOR THE CAPITALISTS THEMSELVES. Short sighted attention to massive profits can kill us all including THEM, but the system (capitalism) won't allow us to save ourselves. The resource shortages are also the fault of the system because it's an expansion based economy that's bumping up against limited resources.

As to the troops, no revolution will suceed anywhere unless the military either comes over to the side of the revolution or at the very least stays neutral. I'm also not sure that the propaganda will continue to be effective in the face of the reality of capitalist oppression. The consumerism won't matter much if there's no money to buy the capitalist's shit.

Thanks for your reply. It was a thoughtful take and I appreciated it.

If the income disparity gets any worse, that is. And we've got Boner and the Teabaggers yelling, "Let them eat cake!!!" Real students of history, those righties.

nm

We been there a while now. I try to come up with comparisons, and I keep coming back to the 1930s, and I think we are around 1931 or so right now, maybe sliding into 1932.

We're closer to '05 than '17.

It may require another large-scale global military engagement to make the current political establishment
vulnerable to overthrow.

Anytime they need a distraction they whip up a war. It's becoming less and less effective as a distraction though.

will replace it?

The first is some form of socialism. The second is Fascism where the business interests have merged with the state. Of course, a third alternative could arise in the future.

That's the end-state the anarcho-primitivists theorize about. The one advantage it has is that tribalism has a very long and successful history as a sustainable form of human organization. Of course, this idea is predicated on a much lower level of population and technology, so getting from here to there would be a cast-iron, gold-plated bitch.

I've honestly never understood anarcho-primitiveists. I just don't why we would want to go backwards in regards to technology. Sure, it has caused problems and can be abused. However, it has overall made life much better and longer.

And IMO it won't come about by choice. That's where the A-P vision tends to come apart at the seams. Most people wouldn't give up today's technology - you'll have to pry their steering wheels out of their cold, dead fingers...

But a 100 year outlook that includes accelerating global warming, complete oil depletion, global food shortages and world-wide economic collapse points in that direction. Not by choice, but because Mother Nature bats last.

:shrug:

If you don't like your government, simply cast your vote at election time to get rid of it. You don't like the choices available? Run for office or start your own party. Or mount a primary challenge. It's only in countries where you're not allowed to do these things that there is ever a real need for a violent revolution.

And after the election, you're still not happy with the government? Tough shit, you're in a minority. Deal with it and better luck next time.

the new deal is a good example, reagan is another... and having a pre revolutionary feel does not necessarily mean it will happen with bullets.

Either way, there is one component missing here... ORGANIZATION.

even if it is my preferred solution,because it suffers from a few flaws, that can be fatal. 1. It relies on the fact that all parties have an equal voice. That is not the case in our system. We have a two party dictatorship pretty much. 2. It relies on the ruling class actually being willing to give up power if you elect a party that will truly change things. That is not always the case. Look at Chile for instance. Hell, look at 2000 here. Bush lost, but he still took power. I'm not saying democracy is bad, I'm merely saying it cannot be the only solution as it can be ignored.

It's a half-functional claptrap Oiligarchy running on empty, that does NOT truly serve the people.

After the election, "tough shit" u say--and that's true if the leaders failing you are the ones you elected? OR if the "elected" were actually the "selected."

:banghead: the logic the logic

bourgeois electoral system, some people haven't given up on it yet.

Because some areas still have relatively fair elections, go ahead and vote, but LORD, don't expect to have any sort of REAL change come out of voting nowdays. The exploiters will not ALLOW "elections" to interfere in their exploitation.

in this country. To accept that they are being disenfranchised and exploited in the WORST kind of way sets up a lot of anxiety and feelings associated with victimization. Denial is a lot easier on the nerves.

People cling to voting as the "way things will change." Sure we must vote, but it amounts to putting a finger in the dike at best. It is not the way the changes WE want to see will happen because this country has been hijacked. I don't expect a lot of people to understand that. Easier to pretend. Someday the People will wake up.

And you're right, someday the People WILL wake up. That won't be pretty either.

the last one here started to cook in the 1730s...

Just to offer some perspective.

And yes it is cooking and I do not need to use Hegel either.

rears it's ugly head. We'll not only have to wait until after football season, we'll have to wait until it ripe too. :) WHENEVER that happens to be.

As an aside, these conditions are one of the reason that us Trotskyists are accused of not ever seeing a revolution that we support. But history has taught us that if you make a revolution before it's time, it morphs into something that nobody likes, even the revolutionists. Or it fails.

I'm sure the teadicks would riot at the drop of a hat.

While the super rich would sit smug, happy and warm in their protected mansions and watch all of us eliminate each other.

But I think the American people are too indoctrinated to actually do anything. It will have to start elsewhere. We'll need braver souls than us to show us the way. I would predict that Europe will erupt first.

It is MUCH closer to a revolutionary situation than the US is. Greece was pretty damn close not too long ago, but condition 3 and 4 was not fully realized. There's also a MUCH higher class consciousness in the European countries than there ever has been here.

What I would like to see is some of the European countries that are bearing the brunt of "austerity", Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and soon Italy, just go "Fuck it" and do it. Any one of them going over to full fledged socialism COULD bring the rest of them around in a domino effect. THEN they could unite in some sort of "socialist bloc" and possibly even with some of the more progressive Latin American countries in order to survive. And possibly thrive. Because they WILL need to help each other to survive the capitalist reaction.

They've already told the bankers to go fuck off. Do you think they could show the way?

bloc I was talking about.

It's ridiculous to fantasize about the masses rising up for some leftwing revolution in this country. just straight up juvenile.

But I guess it's easier to fantasize about it than put the hard work into effectively organizing to push the country left, because that would mean working the system and forming coalitions with *gasp* centrists and other people who may not share all of your political views and likely never will.

some of the objective prerevolutionary conditions being met and all of the sudden it's "straight up juvenile". And if I believed that "working the system" would help the working class and NOT the exploiters, then I'd work the system. But this fucking system has NEVER does anything for the working class and poor unless it ALSO benefits the rich. Mostly what this system does is FUCK OVER the working class and poor. Unless they're scared OF a Red revolution that is.

Of course, as soon as the perceived danger to their precious capitalism is past, they start clawing back any concessions the commies forced them into. THAT'S the system that you want to work within. No thanks, I'll pass. I can do united front stuff on specific issues that benefit the working class and poor, but ultimately I want this system smashed and socialism instituted.

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but time is getting funny, a function of technology and crisis I think. Things are speeding up.....

decades can pass without much progress and then decades of progress can come in weeks. Or something like that.

And you're right it is DEFINITELY a function of technology. And maybe crisis too. Although the crises have always been there, they're getting more severe and coming closer together.

You have one political party that thinks that the government has a legitimate role to play in improving the lives of the average citizen.

You have a second party that think that the government has no role whatsoever in improving the lives of the average citizen.

The second group, when in the majority, uses the levers of government to enrich their friends, while simultaneous dismantling as much of the government as they can.

And when that second group is out of power, they do everything they can to bring the entire government to a stop. Perhaps through odd investigations, impeachment over blow jobs, threats to shutdown the government, threats to allow the country to default.

The second group's goal is to prevent all government action so that they people become so beaten down, that they simply give up on the idea of an active, helpful government. If that second group succeeds, there will be no revolution, the people will simply give up and collapse into a world of learned helplessness.

I think that describes it exactly.

And unlike wars fought "over there," this one is killing us right here at home.

successful government because it would give lie to ALL of their ideology. So they'll do everything they can to make sure that government CANNOT succeed.

we are approaching a pre-revolutionary state. The question is whether the people or the (Milton) Friedmanite sociopaths eventually seize the situation for their advantage.