Obama's Path To Reelection Narrows - NationalJournal

Check out that bottom graph... biggest drop is mostly in blue states...

Obama's Path to Reelection Narrows
Analysis of state-by-state approval ratings show president's Electoral College margin closing.
by Ronald Brownstein - NationalJournal
Updated: August 11, 2011 | 12:47 p.m.
August 10, 2011 | 4:23 p.m.

<snip>

Newly released state-by-state approval numbers for President Obama suggest that in 2012 he could face fewer options for assembling an Electoral College majority and increased pressure to capture racially diverse states. As a result, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, among others, appear to be evolving into critical battlegrounds on the campaign map. The polling results, released earlier this week by Gallup, underscore both the stability of each party’s Electoral College base and the shifting roster of swing states that could decide the 2012 contest.

In all, the compilation shows that Obama’s approval rating exceeds his disapproval rating in states with 301 Electoral College votes--well down from his 365 total in 2008 but still enough to win. That total, however, includes North Carolina, where Obama’s approval and disapproval ratings are virtually even, and Georgia, where Republicans remain skeptical that he can seriously compete, despite signals from his reelection campaign that it intends to. If those two are removed from the list, the states in which Obama’s approval number exceeds his disapproval rating provide exactly 270 Electoral College votes, the bare majority needed to win.

In 2008, the Obama campaign prided itself on expanding the playing field by contesting states previously considered reliably Republican. Next year, the president may find fewer plausible pathways to victory. “In 2008, there may have been many paths … but at this stage it looks like he’s got to thread the needle to get reelected,” said Carl Forti, a founder and partner of the GOP consulting firm Black Rock Group, and the director of an independent-expenditure group supporting Mitt Romney. “There is no margin for error in the road they are going down.”

Bill Burton, the former deputy White House press secretary who is now directing a pro-Obama independent-expenditure campaign, agrees that the numbers point toward a close election, but he argues that they portray a more durable floor of support for Obama than many analysts now assume. “The bottom line here is what we already knew: Which is that it’s going to be really close,” Burton said. “In a cycle where there are going to be pretty stiff headwinds , it should be a small breeze of fresh air to know that there is a structure to the map.”

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More: http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-s-path-to-reelection-narrows-20110810?print=true





:shrug:

You just keep right on with what yer doin' now. You'll get them Republicans elected, sure as yer born.

Feh!

Messenger shoot, much?

n/t

But.. glad it touches you so! ;-)

Truly. :hug:

Now you seem to care... well, you also cared enough in the other thread to respond and therefore kick it, but...

I'm getting mixed messages from you.

Also... when your smoke detector goes off, do you yell at it and tell it to shut up, or do you look for the source of the smoke?

Just curious.

:hi:

a primary. It's irrelevant.

I do care that you appear to be exclusively seeking out and posting anything negative written about President Obama you can locate. Yes, I do care about that. And I expressed my feelings here in this thread. I believe that's still OK to do here on DU.

:shrug:

And BTW... I've posted many anti-Republican threads this very day. Just for the record.

:hi:

going off at odd times, when there was no reason for it. Turned out they were all the same age and almost anything, from high humidity to someone smoking a cigarette in the next room would sometimes set them off. So, I went to the hardware store and bought all new ones and replaced them all. Now, they don't go off unless there's actually a reason. Sometimes the answer is to look closely at the thing that is annoying and correct the real problem.

Sometimes the smoke detectors are defective and need replacing.

Weird.

:evilgrin:

conditions, they can become erratic and prone to false signals after a few years. Kitchen grease, cigarette smoke, and other factors can shorten that useful lifespan. Replacement is the only fix.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

and where are the (R) approval numbers in these states?

That's why this stuff's only function is to discourage Democrats. It's a meaningless exercise in FUD.

Now, when a Republican nominee begins to emerge from the pack, comparisons like this will begin to make some sense. Now, however, they're just so much crap.

so I thought I would point out the obvious flaw in the logic

Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Oregon, Hawaii, Colorado. But also red states like Montana and West Virginia. My own thoughts are these are independent states that have become disappointed by Obama, realizing that he is no progressive and that he doesn't represent them.

In the second tier are states like Washington, Maine, Michigan.

Then there are states like Connecticut, Minnesota, Georgia, Alaska that haven't changed significantly.

To me it looks like Obama is losing,/has lost his progressive and independent support. But, he has tried earnestly to accomplish that. It may also be an opening for a progressive/independent to challenge him in the primary or as a third party candidate.

:shrug:

:hi: