Hey, does this look like Irene is breaking up? 10:09 EST

It doesn't ...

Thus the side of the storm closer to land is going to look like the stronger side. The other half is out there, it just doesn't read as well. Look at the sat map downthread.

that map makes it look like a big tropical storm... the eye is completely gone. A hurricane has a tightly-focused eye.

Like this:

Of course, it may be cooling off for the night to reform tomorrow when the ocean heats up.

so it won't be able to draw energy as it did between FL and Hispaniola.

Here is why Irene moved the way she did and had such a close to the core southern side and expanded to the northeast.

Air currents at about 30,000 feet were from the southwest the whole time the storm left the Caribbean. Evidence of that is the limited southern side and the expanding north side which kept getting blown away from the core. If those currents had not effected the storm - say were non-existent, we'd be looking at a category 3 hurricane heading into NYC. As it is, most of Irene actually got blown away itself!

And I have been studying hurricanes for years. I kept waiting for the meteorologists to explain why the storm was ripped apart. I guess the currents could have stopped at anytime and the storm would have gotten stronger, so they said to hell with that?

Anyway, I sure am glad it didn't survive to be the best/worst it could be.

Now I wonder what caused those winds to blow as strong and as long as they did. More searching? Yep.

And the flash animation shows some of a center reforming as it hit water.

Realize the problem is the storm surge. time of arrival and high tide.

Static photos at times are better to visualize them

Hurricane Irene remains a Cat 1 hurricane with 80mph sustained winds. Irene has exited northeast North Carolina, and now sits over the water east of Maryland. After filling up with precipitation earlier, a small eye feature has reappeared, though this is not really a sign of intensification. Waters are a lot colder up here outside of the Gulf Stream, and Irene is in a stage where she should very slowly weaken as she moves into New England. A buoy just off the coast of North Carolina measured a pressure of 950.6mb with 60kt winds, later confirmed by recon. This is the same pressure that Irene had 30 hours ago north of the Bahamas, and it is absolutely insane that after all she has been through with losing her eye and then spending 10 hours over land, that she should still be maintaining the same intensity without weakening. By all appearances on satellite and radar, she should be weakening, but she is not. The maximum winds I can find so far reported on land were at Cedar Island, North Carolina, which reported sustained winds of 90mph with a gust to 115mph earlier this afternoon. This was an isolated event, and peak winds elsewhere have been along the lines of sustained 80mph and gusts near 100mph.

Irene's pressure is characteristic of a strong Cat 3, and if she still had an eye, we would likely see at least Cat 2 winds with this storm, and thus North Carolina got off very very lucky. The low pressure means that all of that energy is just spread out over a very large area, and Irene has a swatch of maximum winds that is over 100 miles wide. It's like having a gigantic but weak eyewall. This is bad for many people because we're talking about over 18 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds for most folks up the eastern seaboard, with several hours of hurricane force gusts.

Rainfall has exceeded 10 inches in many places in North Carolina and Virginia, and amounts of over 5 inches estimated by radar extend all the way up into New Jersey already. The ground was already saturated, and flash floods and river flooding will be one of Irene's biggest problems for the northeast U.S. during the next 36 hours. Storm surges of 4-8ft into the area from Virginia Beach all the way to Cape Cod will also be damaging, and with 25ft waves being reported offshore on top of the surge, the ocean may breach the Long Island seawall, especially since the surge will arrive near high tide. Water damage may be the worst that Irene has to offer, but wind damage could still be substantial in the big cities, especially New York, as tall city buildings will reach up into higher winds off the ground and experience high stresses.

Overall, this IS a historic storm, and most of New England's historic storms have been absolutely no stronger than Irene. Remember that. She will weaken only slowly, and with a central pressure of 951mb, she will likely remain at hurricane strength before hitting western Long Island tomorrow morning. Please be safe everyone! I will have another update tomorrow morning.

We shall see what happens!




http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/comment.html?entrynum=485

The 951 number refers to a pressure below normal sea level atmospheric pressure which, iirc, is 1000.

The reason it is lower is because air near the core is rapidly rising. We see the same thing when we witness a thunderstorm building. A hurricane is a grouping of thunderstorms going left around a circle: The core.

If you notice the wide view satellite animations you see at the outer edges bands of clouds going clockwise or to the right. This is the storm ventilating the air which is rising around the core. It turns to the right because it is a higher pressure than the atmosphere at 30,000 + feet.

A hurricane that has it all together has equal inflow at sea level and concentric outflows at 30,000 + feet. Due to the winds blowing Irene apart at 30,000 feet, the balance of the storm was messed up and it weakened.

Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning Storm Surge Probs Position Estimate

000
WTNT34 KNHC 280256
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT
SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED
OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES...205 KM...TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AS
FAR NORTH AS THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...EXPECTED BY NOON SUNDAY. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS...WATER LEVEL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

It doesn't want to give up?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1829640

I was half joking the Mexican Navy was on standby... I'd better stop joking. That is the NEXT level of mobilization, a L-4 disaster.

LA Fire is now sending people as part of a DMAT team

and tell me that this storm is 'breaking up'. Shit.