Dow down over 525. Looks to close very hard on back of European market swan

nomb

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Thu Sep-22-11 02:27 PM
Original message

Dow down over 525. Looks to close very hard on back of European market swan

This is potentially a critical point.

Not just another erratic swing, this could have follow-thru. Not cool.

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banned from Kos

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Thu Sep-22-11 02:30 PM
Response to Original message

1. I tend to agree - been optimistic since March 2009

but the Euro crisis is pounding us and Sep/Oct are erratic bear months. Probably a month of weakness until data turns this around.

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girl gone mad

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #1

13. lol

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closeupready

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Thu Sep-22-11 02:35 PM
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2. The autumn seems to be a traditionally bad time for the Dow.

Both Black Fridays (in 1929 and 1986) were in October, IIRC.

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rdking647

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Thu Sep-22-11 02:51 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. 1987

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closeupready

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Thu Sep-22-11 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #4

6. Thx.

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n2doc

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #4

14. 1989 too. Also 2008.

A long time ago someone did the analysis that if one bought stocks in November and sold in April, then sat out the next 6 months and repeated, one did much better than 'buy and hold'.Don't know if that continued, though.

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banned from Kos

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Thu Sep-22-11 02:50 PM
Response to Original message

3. VIX up a whopping 15

Crude (WTI) kept selling off after the Merc closed to below $80.

Bad omens.......

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rdking647

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Thu Sep-22-11 02:58 PM
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5. i bought today

i sepnt about 25% of my free cash and bought a lot of stuff that got killed.
EWY down over 12% in 2 days
CE down almost 20%
MET down 15%.

a few others down the same...
based on th eidea that nothing has changed in the last 2 days... what is out there that we didnt know?? we know the economy sucks...

right now,my portfolio which is composed mostly of dividend payers with sustainable dividends is yielding 7.38%

these are the stocks I own (amounts have been blanked out)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ara4pvUgPus9dHo5UDVUY1BPbXpDQ3JpcnBxa0VVeXc&output=html

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closeupready

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. What has changed is if Greece defaults, it will destabilize an already unstable, rioting Europe.

Edited on Thu Sep-22-11 03:00 PM by closeupready

And Greece, it is being predicted, is very likely to default.

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banned from Kos

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #5

11. nice spreadsheet ----- you like those energy MLPs

have you had any cut their fat dividend?

that 12% yield caught my eye.

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rdking647

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Thu Sep-22-11 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #11

17. i asume you mean NKA and its dividend

I actualy no longer own that. they havent cut their dividend but i suspect they will. they havent had enough cash flow to cover it recently. whenever you see an outsize dividend like NKA compared to its peers you have to dig in deeper and see why..

and yes I love MLP's.. high growing SUSTAINABLE dividends (actually called distribution in the case of MLP's) but they do have drawbacks. You have to be careful holding them in any type of retirement account due to a quirk in the taxcode and you get k-1'a instead of 1099's which makes tax time oh so fun.....
but a large percentage of their distribution is tax deferred until you sell

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jannyk

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:02 PM
Response to Original message

8. Closed off 389

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nomb

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. Crisis averted. Just another bad swing. But like bowling, we score markets by the frame that follows

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aikoaiko

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:06 PM
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10. I'm glad I bailed at 12100 in late July. Its been squirrelly ever since.

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Lochloosa

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #10

16. 12700 Here....beat you by a few days

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Warpy

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:25 PM
Response to Original message

12. The Dow has been overvalued since the late 90s

because all that hoarded supply side bonanza the wealthy found themselves with had so few other places to go, especially when interest rates hit bargain basement levels. At least your money works for you if you buy stocks that produce dividends.

My own guesstimate of its real value is 6500-7500 points.

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rdking647

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Thu Sep-22-11 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #12

18. based on what????

the s&p will earn around $100 this year.. lets assume that its 20% to high. that makes it $80.

lets assume 10 year rates go back to 5% from their current 1.75.
assuming a 5% earnings yield equals a price of 1800 for the s&p thats if you subscribe to the fed model of equity prices

or if you assume the 80 in earnings again and a p/e of 12 which is a below average p/e for the market you get an s&p price of 960..

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Broderick

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Thu Sep-22-11 03:34 PM
Response to Original message

15. So what

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