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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:15 PM
Original message
Wisconsin Recall Prospects Dimming
Source: Public Policy Polling

Scott Walker's approval numbers are continuing to improve, making the prospect of recalling him look much tougher for Democrats than it did during the spring.

Walker's still not popular- 47% of voters approve of him, compared to 51% who disapprove. But those numbers represent continuing improvement over the course of the year. He hit his lowest point in PPP's polling in May at 43/54. By August he'd improved to 45/53, and now that improvement has continued over the last couple months. Republicans continue to stand pretty uniformly behind Walker, and Democrats pretty uniformly against him. Where the shift is occurring is with independents. In May only 40% approved of him with 56% disapproving. Now those numbers are almost flipped with 52% approving to 44% who disapprove.

Walker's not out of the woods by any means. 48% of voters in the state want to recall him, while 49% are opposed to such a move. But it's not clear if Democrats will have a candidate strong enough to unseat Walker. The only one who beats him in a hypothetical recall is Russ Feingold. But Feingold's already said he's probably not going to run, and his margin over Walker is just 3 points at 49-46. In May Feingold led Walker 52-42 and in August Feingold had a 52-45 advantage. So even with their strongest possible candidate Democrats' prospects against Walker are slipping.

We tested a whole laundry list of other potential challengers to Walker. 2010 foe Tom Barrett comes closest, but trails Walker 48-46. In May Barrett had a 50-43 advantage in a potential redo. After Barrett the Democrat who comes next closest is David Obey, who trails 47-42. Peter Barca and Ron Kind both trail by 6 points at 48-42 and 47-41 respectively. Jon Erpenbach is down by 7 at 47-40. And Kathleen Falk and Steve Kagen each trail by 8 at 49-41 and 47-39 respectively.

Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/wisconsin-recall-prospects-dimming.html



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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. Not surprising considering they couldn't take back the Senate.
Uninformed voters. The GOP's best friend.



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Goblinmonger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. I know there was great hope we retake the senate
but we recalled TWO senators. That's huge. People are pissed. And, trust me, things aren't getting any better in Wisconsin despite what this article wants to say.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #1
20. You know nothing. Theres another set of recalls coming in much more competitive districts.
:*
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Scuba Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:23 PM
Response to Original message
2. Most polls are designed to shape opinion, not measure it. n/t
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tosh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Indeed.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. This one was conducted by a Democratic polling firm
How do you think they are trying to shape public opinion?
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #10
22. perhaps to insure a good turn out.
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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #2
13. Agree, especially polls taken far in advance of an election
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tcaudilllg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #2
26. Good observation.
I agree. What can we do to undermine such polling?
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:24 PM
Response to Original message
3. How did his approval numbers rise so quickly?
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Blue Owl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:25 PM
Response to Original message
4. I say BULLSHIT
Focker is burnt toast and he knows it.
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bobthedrummer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
6. BULLSHIT, Freddie Stubbs. Come on up here and be part of history. WALKER is John Doe.
RECALL SCOTT WALKER!
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bobthedrummer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Unrec.
RECALL SCOTT WALKER!
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
9. PPP employs Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, does political robocalls
Friends of yours??

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Kingofalldems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:55 PM
Response to Original message
11. How long did it take you to find this?
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Pharaoh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 03:59 PM
Response to Original message
12. unrec
propaganda bullshit.
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No DUplicitous DUpe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:02 PM
Response to Original message
14. MOE is +/- 2.9% so there has been no big improvement. nt
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Hardrada Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:04 PM
Response to Original message
15. Debbie Downer!! Get thee hence!
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johnson542 Donating Member (11 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:15 PM
Response to Original message
16. Hmm
Sadly the memory of the voters is far too short.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:23 PM
Response to Original message
17. ....and the spin is on even before the ink is on the paper for the petition.
Edited on Wed Oct-26-11 04:24 PM by Ellipsis
Lets see what happens with the John Doe hearing.
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MasonJar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:25 PM
Response to Original message
18. I am sorry, Wisconsin. I feel your pain. I just hope the wack job, David
Williams, loses the Kentucky governor's race or we'll be joining your pain.
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #18
24. Three polls give Mr. Beshear a 30 point lead.
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bobthedrummer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #18
32. We've both been through quite a bit in the past decade as DUer's MasonJar.
I know you are NOT BEING represented in the Senate by Senator NO! of Kentucky.
:puke: :argh:
RECALL SCOTT WALKER!
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seacaves Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
19. MJS: Wisconsin voters split on Walker recall in new poll ...
I think this is a more truthful headline---and it comes from a conservative leaning newspaper who endorsed Walker.





http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/132646608.html
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seacaves Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:27 PM
Response to Original message
21. K and R (but the headline sucks big time)
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SkyDaddy7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
23. The sad but true part is...
Republicans are not hated or disliked as much as we would like or as much as they should be by the middle class...Over the past 30yrs the Republicans have stuck together & worked hard to turn this country into right leaning nation. FOX "News" & especially Talk Radio has shaped the thinking of so many in the middle class over the past 25yrs that even the financial disaster & the Iraq War made only a slight but temporary change in people's opinion of the Republican Party.

Look at how easily the people of Wisconsin forget what happened just several months ago!

This is why I cringe every time I see people talking like none of the Republican Candidates for POTUS have a chance of winning...Add in the fact many in our own party are talking about running someone against Obama in the primary, voting for a 3rd party candidate like Nader should he run or even not voting for POTUS to somehow teach Obama a lesson & it is more likely than not whoever wins the Republican nomination will be the next President.

Oh well...I feel sick every time I start to think of what will be done to the middle class if the Republicans take full control of this nation in 2013.
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seacaves Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 04:59 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. I am living in the midst of that amnesia
in WI. But on the other hand, I am also in the midst of many eager volunteers who are ready to hit the road.


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Swede Atlanta Donating Member (906 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 05:29 PM
Response to Original message
27. It is still nearly a couple of weeks away........
the OWS movement, though diverted a bit by the recent rounds of police brutality, is still going strong. I think the WI OWS activities are continuing to attract participants. We can only hope that this combined with the GOP candidates' proposals for more tax cuts for the wealthy will bring enough people to their senses to at least have a recall vote. Even if Walker won again I suspect it would be by a slimmer margin and at least he and the pukes are aware that everyone is watching them and they are subject to recall. They lost two of their own darlings from the Senate.
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Yon_Yonson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
28. Fucking A you say ... let's get this recall started
The NEOCON RAT TURD is toast!
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bobthedrummer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #28
34. Especially with REPUBLICANS OR FORMER REPUBLICANS!! LOL!
RECALL SCOTT WALKER!
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 05:48 PM
Response to Original message
29. I smell the b.s. on this poll
n/t
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plumbob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 06:15 PM
Response to Original message
30. 43 to 47 is still within the 5% margin of error.
This is completely indeterminate, since he could be 42 to 52 with the new number.

Quite unethical for the pollster to pretend that this shows up, down, or unchanged.

It shows nothing.
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AlbertCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-26-11 06:17 PM
Response to Original message
31. Where the shift is occurring is with independents.
Scared, misinformed, spineless, ignorant, wishy-washy independents.
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bobthedrummer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. I'm an Independent because there isn't a viable Democratic Socialist Party in the US.
You can learn much from me, AlbertCat. Antifascist to the core here.
RECALL SCOTT WALKER!
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