Will it go to an Appeals Court first? Regardless, it will probably end up in the Supreme Court. What are the odds it will survive in this Supreme Court? Would Kennedy go along with the ideologues on the Court?
...just how sincerely held Scalia's belief that "If you want something to change, elect leaders to pass a law for it don't have the courts legislate it" realy is.
3. It will eventually get to the Supreme Court. There is now a split precedent.
This means technically the mandate only applies to portions of the country. That is a situation the Supreme Court will not allow to stand.
Kennedy in the past has ruled with the 4 on issues where federal government pushed the limits of its enumerated powers. Kennedy while socially liberal is rather conservative in his views (correct views IMHO) that the federal government was intended to be a limited government. If the people want a more expansive federal government then the proper and legal challenge is to amend the Constitution (like was done when there was need for income tax).
While I can't speak for Kennedy I doubt he would find this Constitutional. When (not if) it goes to the SCOTUS the oral arguments will be very telling. Kennedy is rather easy to read. The specific questions he asks and how he asks them give a lot of insight in how he will rule.
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