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What's the best and worst that could happen in Egypt?

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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:24 PM
Original message
What's the best and worst that could happen in Egypt?
I think the best that could be asked for is that the military take over the government until elections could be held. The people should vote for who they want to be their leader. The military would only have a temporary role until elections were held. Mubarak would resign immediately and he and his family would leave the country.

I think the worst that might happen would be if the Muslim Brotherhood took control and put Baradei in control as the temporary leader. They could find a way to "get rid" of him and they could end up in a worse situation than with Mubarak. The country would be very unstable and many people could die as a result.

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RandySF Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. The worst-case scenario
Fox news and their neoconservative allies talk like the streets are filled with young future suicide bombers. Of course, nothing could be further from the truth. My concern is not what happens immediately after. I worry that the person who takes power will not be able to deal quickly enough with the country's ills and is overthrown by either a theocracy or some hardline thug who learned the ropes under Mubarek.
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Ozymanithrax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:42 PM
Response to Original message
2. Egypt's future government becomes a paranoid Islamic state.
Paranoid Israel,seeing a paranoid Islamic State on their southern border, launches a premptive attack to destroy the Egyptian military, leading to another round of full scale wars across the region.

Arms dealers from all major nations, including the United States, make massive profits.
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Bragi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:43 PM
Response to Original message
3. Good observations
The very worst thing, though, would be for Mubarak to hang in for a few weeks promising to step aside, the world media tires of the whole thing, the protesters go home and back to work, and Mubarak then uses the police to do a severe crack down on enemies, dissidents, etc.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Good point.
Very possible. Mubarak is 83 years old and will not be in charge much longer.
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Blue Meany Donating Member (986 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
5. I don't think a Taliban-like regime is possible Egypt because
Edited on Tue Feb-01-11 02:47 PM by Blue Meany
it is far too cosmopolitan for that. The worst case would be a Sunni-verson of Iran, but without the alleviation of extreme poverty that came with the revolution. The best results could look something like Turkey, with the possibility of maintaining political conflict, including Islamism, with an electoral system, but with occasional intervention from the army (though sometimes to rescue the country from executives who overstepped their authority). An alliance between the poor and clerics or fundementalists would be something to worry about, as this is what brought Iran to its current state. The needs of the masses of urban poor people had better be addressed by whoever comes to power, because they, along with the Army, are likely to be the ultimate abitrers of the system.
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cynatnite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:46 PM
Response to Original message
6. The best would be a peaceful transition of leaders...
Edited on Tue Feb-01-11 02:47 PM by cynatnite
with fundamental change to a secular government that benefits everyone in Egypt.

The worst...

Iran part deux.
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:47 PM
Response to Original message
7. Best- deep fried Pepsi
Worst- Jersey Shore

I don't think the Brotherhood is that bad and I doubt that they take over. They may increase their seats but that is about all. The only reason El Baradei accepted them was because he was trying to build a constituency which he didn't have when he arrived. It seems to have worked out for him in the last week but I have also read and heard that he is seen like ex-pat Iraqis were seen by those who lived through the worst of it- he is an opportunist and a carpetbagger.
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Recursion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
8. For the worst case scenarios, look farther down the Red Sea
Edited on Tue Feb-01-11 02:49 PM by Recursion
Sudan and Somalia on the one hand (no government at all, though you also have to look backwards in time to get that for Sudan), Eritrea on the other (a government rated as more oppressive than North Korea's).
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TBF Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
9. The Muslim Brotherhood has not stated any desire to take control -
and who are we to tell the Egypt people what to do? Honestly ...
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leftstreet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 02:52 PM
Response to Original message
10. For whom?
The Egyptian working classes?

The wealthy minority?

:shrug:

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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. For the "good guys"?
:-)
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leftstreet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #11
18. I assume you mean the US
:eyes:
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Not necessarily..
Whomever can bring peace and security without a lot of violence.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:25 PM
Response to Original message
12. the worst case: chaos, food riots (there are already food shortages)
leading to an (another) authoritarian leader of some flavor. The best: transparent elections leading to a democratically elected government that doesn't oppress the people.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
13. Worst is that Mubarak stays and puts
his cronies in power before the election.
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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
14. Worst-case scenario is Israel has a ham-fisted reaction to Baradei
which will strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood coalition's power & popularity.
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Puregonzo1188 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Yeah, I'm far more worried about Israel than about whatever new government comes into power
in Egypt at this point.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:43 PM
Response to Original message
15. The military should NOT take over the govt.
An interim govt should be created. People who are in the interim will be ineligible to run in next election.

When govt seizes control of a government they almost never release it.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-01-11 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. But who would take it over in the interim?
The military is already in place and friendly to our country, not that that should be a factor...
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-03-11 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
20. Anybody change their mind?
What's the worst that could happen?
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