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I think that there are two important factors: first, I do not think President Obama would have an easy time being re-elected, if the republicans had a strong candidate; second, there does not appear to be any potential republican candidate that will make a strong challenge.
Some of our friends here point to polls that indicate President Obama is relatively popular, and enjoys the potential support of nearly half those asked if they will vote for him in 2012. I do not question the significance of such polls, especially in the context of Obama's running against a weak republican candidate.
However, things can change -- and quickly. The economy and war in Libya could hurt the President. And if a stronger candidate gets into the republican primaries, the election in November will not be a popularity contest. It will be decided on electorate votes, meaning if a challenger takes traditional republican states, and gets victories in some of the up-for-grabs regions of the country, it could be ugly.
It bothers me that this President, and his administration, take the democratic left for granted.
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