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If not, you probably should look em up. They were better (and faster) than any poll in 2008, a real-time market indicator of (monetary-based) confidence in the probability of real-word outcomes. As has often been stated, people are far less likely to let their biases get in the way when they have a chance of losing money. (The morning of the election, the Obama market was flying high at 85%.)
Obama's re-election has been hovering around 58% or so recently--a number considerably higher than his poll numbers would have you think. President-elect Romney is the second highest at--get this--12%. And President The Donald? A lean 5.5%, behind Palenty.
But I don't really care about any of these margins per se, and neither should you--Obama's way out in front because he doesn't have a front-running opponent yet, and I'm sure things will change after the GOP primary is over. I just wanted to see what has been happening since this morning's events.
Actually, nothing too dramatic. But for what it's worth Obama's gone up to 59.5% (although perhaps that's also because Bernake's speech about the economy continuing to improve gave confidence to the market watchers.) And Trump has gone down to 5.2%. Nothing huge--but it proves my contention that Donald Trump has not a shot in hell of winning the nomination.
It also suggests that Obama's bold move today only helped him and hurt Trump, if it did anything at all.
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