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kentuck

(111,102 posts)
Tue Dec 19, 2017, 04:39 PM Dec 2017

The Fed is starting to get worried about the $2 trillion commercial real estate market

This article is from earlier this year but very relevant with the 14 Senators that voted for the CRE (Commercial Real Estate) protection in the tax bill, including Bob Corker.
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http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-worries-2-trillion-commercial-real-estate-market-2017-2

<snip>
What concerns the Fed about CRE aren’t the valuations per se, but the fact that the sector is highly leveraged, and that when prices collapse, which they tend to do, the collateral value gets crushed, and banks are left to twist in the wind. That’s what happened during the Financial Crisis.

<snip>
The Fed is careful not to sow panic among bank investors. So it couches its message in a big “while” and some other mollifying words, before getting to the meat at the very end of its long sentence, namely that a “sizeable” decline in CRE prices could take down “smaller banks”:

While CRE debt remains modest relative to the overall size of the economy and the tightening in bank lending standards for CRE loans in the second half of last year may reflect some reduction in the appetite for CRE lending, the heightening of valuation pressures may leave some smaller banks vulnerable to a sizable CRE price decline.

And “smaller banks” are precisely what’s the most on the hook: they hold about $1.22 trillion of these CRE loans.

<snip>
Boom and bust – that’s the nature of the sector. Only this time, historically low interest rates for eight years and the resulting wild chase for yield among desperate investors have created the most magnificent CRE bubble ever with the most leverage ever. And I have no idea how the Fed is going to unwind its handiwork softly without pulling the rug out from under the banks and CRE investors.

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The Fed is starting to get worried about the $2 trillion commercial real estate market (Original Post) kentuck Dec 2017 OP
+1, increasing treasury yields will help quicken the crash uponit7771 Dec 2017 #1
Couldn't read the article, but did it mention this was Trump's problem? When he blew it last time... TreasonousBastard Dec 2017 #2
No, it doesn't mention Trump specifically. kentuck Dec 2017 #4
That was when he borrowed from US Banks. Now he borrows from Russia. SharonAnn Dec 2017 #5
Did anyone see the latest season of Fargo? Where a business borrows from Russians? SharonAnn Dec 2017 #6
The two major Debt's that will blow up Wellstone ruled Dec 2017 #3

TreasonousBastard

(43,049 posts)
2. Couldn't read the article, but did it mention this was Trump's problem? When he blew it last time...
Tue Dec 19, 2017, 05:05 PM
Dec 2017

it turned out he owed so much that if he went under there was so little actual value in his properties that he would take banks down with him. Then the FDIC and whatever else gets involved...

So, they let him stay in business with overseers who basically took away his checkbook-- this is why he isn't living in a gutter somewhere.

This is not to take away the banks' responsibility for stupidly lending him so much, but certainly shows that we should take a much closer look at real estate than we have been. Fat chance of that, though.

kentuck

(111,102 posts)
4. No, it doesn't mention Trump specifically.
Tue Dec 19, 2017, 05:11 PM
Dec 2017

But, my opinion is that this is very connected to the tax bill they are rushing thru the House and Senate.

SharonAnn

(13,776 posts)
6. Did anyone see the latest season of Fargo? Where a business borrows from Russians?
Tue Dec 19, 2017, 05:45 PM
Dec 2017

It's pretty ugly, what they do with your business, money laundering through it, borrowing against it, taking complete control of it, and killing you and your family if you stand up to them.

Really brutal. I think that's the situation 45 is in.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
3. The two major Debt's that will blow up
Tue Dec 19, 2017, 05:10 PM
Dec 2017

are Student Loans and Commercial Real Estate. Notable are Shopping Centers First,and Older Class C Office buildings. Remember,Tech is replacing the Cube Rat. Tons of stories about how AI has taken over Back Room Tech Jobs.

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