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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Fed is starting to get worried about the $2 trillion commercial real estate market
This article is from earlier this year but very relevant with the 14 Senators that voted for the CRE (Commercial Real Estate) protection in the tax bill, including Bob Corker.
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http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-worries-2-trillion-commercial-real-estate-market-2017-2
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What concerns the Fed about CRE arent the valuations per se, but the fact that the sector is highly leveraged, and that when prices collapse, which they tend to do, the collateral value gets crushed, and banks are left to twist in the wind. Thats what happened during the Financial Crisis.
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The Fed is careful not to sow panic among bank investors. So it couches its message in a big while and some other mollifying words, before getting to the meat at the very end of its long sentence, namely that a sizeable decline in CRE prices could take down smaller banks:
While CRE debt remains modest relative to the overall size of the economy and the tightening in bank lending standards for CRE loans in the second half of last year may reflect some reduction in the appetite for CRE lending, the heightening of valuation pressures may leave some smaller banks vulnerable to a sizable CRE price decline.
And smaller banks are precisely whats the most on the hook: they hold about $1.22 trillion of these CRE loans.
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Boom and bust thats the nature of the sector. Only this time, historically low interest rates for eight years and the resulting wild chase for yield among desperate investors have created the most magnificent CRE bubble ever with the most leverage ever. And I have no idea how the Fed is going to unwind its handiwork softly without pulling the rug out from under the banks and CRE investors.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)it turned out he owed so much that if he went under there was so little actual value in his properties that he would take banks down with him. Then the FDIC and whatever else gets involved...
So, they let him stay in business with overseers who basically took away his checkbook-- this is why he isn't living in a gutter somewhere.
This is not to take away the banks' responsibility for stupidly lending him so much, but certainly shows that we should take a much closer look at real estate than we have been. Fat chance of that, though.
kentuck
(111,102 posts)But, my opinion is that this is very connected to the tax bill they are rushing thru the House and Senate.
SharonAnn
(13,776 posts)SharonAnn
(13,776 posts)It's pretty ugly, what they do with your business, money laundering through it, borrowing against it, taking complete control of it, and killing you and your family if you stand up to them.
Really brutal. I think that's the situation 45 is in.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)are Student Loans and Commercial Real Estate. Notable are Shopping Centers First,and Older Class C Office buildings. Remember,Tech is replacing the Cube Rat. Tons of stories about how AI has taken over Back Room Tech Jobs.