The next special election that could portend a Democratic wave

Republicans are bracing for a potentially competitive special election in a usually reliable part of Pennsylvania.

By ELENA SCHNEIDER 12/23/2017 07:01 AM EST



A March special election in a conservative-leaning stretch of western Pennsylvania that Donald Trump won by 20 points is the next big test of whether a Democratic wave will sweep the party into the House majority for the first time 2010.

The congressional seat left vacant by ex-Rep. Tim Murphy, an anti-abortion Republican who allegedly encouraged a lover to terminate a pregnancy, has all the makings of the next major special election showdown. It pits Democrat Conor Lamb, a young, telegenic Marine veteran with a political pedigree, against Rick Saccone, a Trump-supporting GOP state representative with a long voting record and doubters among local Republicans.

Though the district favors Republicans, the contrast in candidates, coupled with the enthusiasm coursing through the Democratic base around the country, has some GOP operatives in Washington and Pennsylvania on edge as they look ahead to the March 13 election.

"If you look at every special election to date, Republicans have been underperforming Trump’s [margin] by double digits," said Titus Bond, a Republican strategist and polling director for Remington Research Group. "I don't think Republicans are going to lose this seat, but it's going to be a battle and they're not going to take any chances,” he added.

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https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/23/republicans-brace-for-competitive-pennsylvania-house-race-316206