General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCan we get enough votes to Remove Trump in 2018?
First we have to win big in 2018. The GOP must see a bigger threat from the general public then from their base. For the Senate that means.
1. We have to hold all our seats. This is a huge deal as we are defending seats in deep red states.
2. We have to win both AZ and NV. Again, this is a huge tasks, but that gives us 51 votes.
3. We need to pick up McCains seat when he resigns or passes away. While I hope McCain the best, the reality is his type of cancer is very hard to treat. That would bring us up to 52 votes.
4. We need to win in TN and TX. In both cases we have very good canidates. In TN, that seat is empty. In TX, we face Ted Cruz. In a huge wave, they are both doable. That gives us 54 seats.
5. With a wave that big, the house goes big too. So actual impeachment wont be a problem.
Even in this landslide, we need 13 GOP votes to remove Trump. This sort of landslide will scare the shit out of the Republicans, but I dont know if it will be enough. The 13 most moderate Republicans there in this situation are:
Sen. Thom Tillis
Sen. Joni Ernst
Sen. Rand Paul
Sen. Patrick Pat Toomey
Sen. Charles Chuck Grassley
Sen. Shelley Capito
Sen. Richard Burr
Sen. Thad Cochran
Sen. Dan Sullivan
Sen. Richard Shelby
Sen. Lamar Alexander
Sen. Lindsey Graham
Sen. Robert Rob Portman
Though I dont think that tells the whole story. I think Sen Sasse, Rubio, etc are possiable gets. That said, this is very hard.
With all of that, is removal from office actually possiable or is this a pipe dream?
imanamerican63
(13,807 posts)start now just as in Virginia & Alabama!
Casprings
(347 posts)Including the take over if the courts.
Demsrule86
(68,628 posts)onenote
(42,726 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)Doing that to him and Pence eats sets it up nicely for 2020.
EL34x4
(2,003 posts)...that will convince them that Trump is guilty of anything. And any Republican elected official whose continued employment in Congress is dependent upon Trump's base going to the polls is never going to vote for impeachment.
Casprings
(347 posts)rzemanfl
(29,565 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)rzemanfl
(29,565 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)rzemanfl
(29,565 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)The bottom line is I went from saying, Al should go because the numbers and diversity of the women and that being hidden by a jury to posters showing support for someone I consider very brave. Popularity does not equal right. That said, I see it as progress.
rzemanfl
(29,565 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,418 posts)rzemanfl
(29,565 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)How is this not a personnal attack?
BannonsLiver
(16,418 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,418 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)Tipperary
(6,930 posts)We all mistype, but these mistakes are telling I think.
BannonsLiver
(16,418 posts)I guess word hasn't reached Moldova yet that Franken has resigned.
whathehell
(29,069 posts)Sorry.. Couldn't help myself.
marble falls
(57,137 posts)marble falls
(57,137 posts)Response to Casprings (Reply #9)
Matt_R This message was self-deleted by its author.
Casprings
(347 posts)Current one.
Response to Casprings (Reply #97)
Matt_R This message was self-deleted by its author.
Demsrule86
(68,628 posts)You know such comments increase my dislike of those who had a hand in the demise of Sen. Franken ...and solidifies my decision to vote for a Democrat who had no involvement in the Franken debacle ...in the 2020 primary or any future primary.
Casprings
(347 posts)Demsrule86
(68,628 posts)as a prosecutor. I like her.
marble falls
(57,137 posts)pangaia
(24,324 posts)She has done a lot of good in the past.. BUT..
Casprings
(347 posts)Lurks Often
(5,455 posts)sofa king
(10,857 posts)The only thing that needs to happen is Donald Trump has to switch parties, and then Lamar would drink Trump's blood.
Piece of cake, right?
muntrv
(14,505 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)The problem is removal isnt up to only us. We need to build a strong case with the public and handle this as professionally as possiable.
rzemanfl
(29,565 posts)Demsrule86
(68,628 posts)removal...the last thing we need is for Trump or some other repuke to win in 20 because of a similar backlash that happened when Pres. Clinton was impeached...and the GOP went down in flames. New Gingrich was forced to resign in 98 if you remember.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)karynnj
(59,504 posts)the case against him. In the 1990s, the conclusion is that high crimes and misdemeanors are whatever the members of the House or Senate think them to be. I think it also has to be something done as President.
At this point, the strongest case that might be made is obstruction of justice relating to the investigation of Russian collusion. It might be that if Trump becomes more toxic, the Republicans will join in impeaching him knowing they get rid of him and get Pence, a Republican more rightwing than any they would have been able to get elected. If Pence is not linked to anything for which Trump is impeached -- the list of which Republicans back it might be different.
It may cynically come down to whether Republicans consider that they are hurt more by Trump being there than Trump being impeached.
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)I just don't see it happening. HE'll serve out his term then go down in flames.
Casprings
(347 posts)The chances that he does something truly destabilizing.
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,362 posts)If Trump gets ousted, Pence takes over, just as evil, but more effective.
If not Pence, then Ryan, whose goal in life is to eliminate Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
No, I prefer leaving Trump where he is until 2020.
Casprings
(347 posts)And Pence is blocked with a democratic congress. Plus the risk of Trump doing something like in North Korea is there.
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,362 posts)If Pence is not made Prez, then it goes to the Speaker of the House. By that time, it will NOT be Ryan, it will be Pelosi or some other Democrat. Otherwise, there is no impeachment.
WPB_dem
(14 posts)The only thing they can affect is the appointment of a new VP.
A new VP would have to be approved by a simple majority of both houses of congress.
Control of the House or Senate would give the Democrats enough control to keep out the most extreme left-wing nutjobs.
Casprings
(347 posts)But no way they hand power over. Still should impeach Pence to tie him to trump in 2020.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Pence is a nutcase American Taliban no doubt but I don't think he is crazy enough to start a nuclear war with NK for shits and grins.
Trump is though. Trump can't wait to see the bodies burning IMO.
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,362 posts)And maybe show him reruns of Hiroshima, to make him think his orders were followed. Bring good doughnuts to his morning security briefing, and he'll think he's in presidential heaven.
"Here's a red button, Mr President. OF COURSE it's connected to real missiles."
edit: delay, not belay.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)As for impeachment, I don't think our leadership will even consider it unless Mueller returns some cast iron evidence. Even then I can see them agreeing to some kind of resign-pardon deal ala Nixon. It infuriates me, but there just hasn't been any signs that Nancy would consider going after them like that, just like they didn't with the Bush criminals.
Casprings
(347 posts)Nixon would have been removed. GOP base might not allow trump to be. He might win the fight.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)I don't think even Fox would support him if something irrefutable came out, their commentators have even turned on him at times in the last year when he's gone over the top. I think the only way he wins is if they manage to shut down the investigation before the proof is released.
Casprings
(347 posts)And a guilty plea that state pretty irrefutable that they tried to work with Russians. We just need to track what is already there and make sure we dont lose track of that.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)But for it to turn the media and the public completely it needs to be the FBI coming out saying 'They commited crimes'. I think that's when it becomes unstoppable and beyond all but the most partisan voices to deny.
Casprings
(347 posts)Which is the GOP base. We still need to move forward and build a strong case with the evidence. The point I am making, is there is likely enough there right now.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)That's the level Nixon had still supporting him when he resigned. I think we can work with that.
Golden Raisin
(4,611 posts)home-grown meddling and vote suppression. Our election integrity is seriously compromised. To say nothing of if Trump starts a war (N. Korea, Iran, fill-in-the blank.) He and the Republican Congress would cheerfully suspend elections as a "patriotic" necessity. I would put nothing past them.
shanny
(6,709 posts)25th Amendment is more likely...and not likely at all.
Only way out is through. Take back Congress, and the White House in 2020 (along the way take back state and local governments). With luck the pResident will keel over from a stroke before then so that at least we won't have a nuclear war, but there will be no early end to the nightmare.
duforsure
(11,885 posts)Have the real power of our country's government for ALL of us, not them. Be positive WE can unite , and can do this, or We The People means nothing.
HughBeaumont
(24,461 posts)Ever heard Joni Ernst speak? Rob Portman? Rand Paul? Chuck "booze, movies and women" Grassley?
COME on, y'all.
Casprings
(347 posts)lastlib
(23,261 posts)Our only hope is that Pence gets indicted and resigns in disgrace, then AnusMouth has a stroke that turns him into a vegetable. And we take the House next year, putting a D in the line of succession.
Joe941
(2,848 posts)Our best hope is to win the house in 2018 - we need that win! That puts a stop to tRump's agenda for 2 years until the 2020 presidential election. In 2020 the senate will be in play again. So, we have to hold our ground for the next 3 years and limit the damage until we have a chance to really change things back to how Obama left it. I predict we will have all 3 branches of government in 2020.
lastlib
(23,261 posts)to put clamps on AnusMouth's judicial appointments. IMHO, that is just as important as winning the House.
Come on, Dems, Get Out The Furshlugginer Vote!!
Joe941
(2,848 posts)In 2020 the senate looks much better just based on the seats up for election.
brooklynite
(94,665 posts)As much as people may feel Trump was involved with or knew about Russian involvement in the election, unless Mueller comes up with authoritative proof, you won't get 2/3 of the Senate to convict him.
Casprings
(347 posts)Plus the evidence in normal times is already there. The campaign was actively trying to get their help and that is on written emails and on plea deals.
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)I'm thinking absolutely certain proof of "illegitimate election" is forthcoming. Trump is trying to prop up his coup.
Casprings
(347 posts)If this were Obama and his Campaign meet with Russia serveral times, he would be gone.
rock
(13,218 posts)But I prefer trying him for high crimes in situ, i.e. while still fulfilling the office of presidink. I believe the presidink is as indictable as anyone else (though it may take more balls).
rockfordfile
(8,704 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)bronxiteforever
(9,287 posts)If Mueller finds substantial direct evidence of felonious conduct by IQ45i.e., Nixon tapes type evidence.
Casprings
(347 posts)bronxiteforever
(9,287 posts),authorizing and paying for criminal acts. Your question was how to get to 13 rethugs to join Democratic Senators in approving impeachment. With the GOP it will require proof beyond a reasonable doubt.
If a Democratic President did anything wrong, mere innuendo would be enough for that great deliberative body to impeach.
rsdsharp
(9,188 posts)I want some of what you're smoking.
Casprings
(347 posts)EL34x4
(2,003 posts)You're not going to get 13 GOP senators to impeach Trump. It doesn't matter what evidence the Mueller investigation presents.
Casprings
(347 posts)marble falls
(57,137 posts)That other "moderate" Alex Jones loves ol' Chuckie.
WPB_dem
(14 posts)1. Pledge to work to find a fair resolution to the Student Loan crisis
Something fair to the lenders and borrowers and people who have worked hard to pay off their loans. Also some measures to reduce student loan debt to people majoring in disciplines that will never result in a job that will enable payback.
2. Pledge to work toward legalization of recreational marijuana.
remove it from the federal list of narcotics and encourage state governments to legalize and tax MJ.
3. Introduce a plan to fix and expand the ACA. Democratic candidates repeatedly suggested mending the ACA but never came out with a list of what they would change.
These changes will energize the youth vote and deliver a nice wave of young blue voters.
Been lurking here for a while, happy to have finally joined
Eliot Rosewater
(31,112 posts)MineralMan
(146,321 posts)up for election in 2018. That's not enough for the 67 votes needed to remove Trump.
So, the answer is no.
Casprings
(347 posts)Its the senators up in 2020 and putting pressure on them.
Exultant Democracy
(6,594 posts)It isn't like Al was from a safe blue state, and this is going to leave a very bad taste in the mouths of a lot of the voters who live there. We may have just given away a safe seat.
Casprings
(347 posts)In what looks like a blue wave.
Exultant Democracy
(6,594 posts)The only fact that matters is we have one more seat we have to pour resources into defending. Even in a wave election politics are local, and this disgusting debacle will be a millstone around our necks.
Casprings
(347 posts)Exultant Democracy
(6,594 posts)And more importantly what you ignored is that we are playing defense now on a seat that was safe. Defending a seat cost infinity more money than not having a race, and we have to pull all that money out of other races.
Demsrule86
(68,628 posts)krawhitham
(4,645 posts)Many are hopping for a reason get rid themselves of Trump before he completely destroys the GOP, they are just too scared do make a move in case it does not work and the Nazi base turns on them
fallout87
(819 posts)But if you thin Ted Cruz is going to lose in Texas, you may need to re-evaluate the rest of your predictions.
marble falls
(57,137 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)2018 might be early, but a wave can do odd things.
Sophia4
(3,515 posts)The California Republicans who voted for the tax bill should be very vulnerable.
We need to go door to door and explain what that tax bill will mean for California and for the better off in California who will pay through the nose just because they live in California, a state with a lot of infrastructure costs that other states don't have like water management, etc.
Dr_Pretorius
(71 posts)Good luck with that.
Casprings
(347 posts)I went off of ideological scoring based on votes. Bottom line is, you are going to need 13 votes. Might be be impossiable.
Dr_Pretorius
(71 posts)It makes me sick that Jay Rockefeller was replaced by that snake!
Response to Casprings (Original post)
Matt_R This message was self-deleted by its author.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)And advocating for does not help us in any way possible. It will fire up the demoralized moderate republican voters and when it does not happen it will devastate the over enthusiastic on our side.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,422 posts)The Senate is a longshot and even if we win it by a bare majority, I doubt that there will be enough votes to convict, even among Democrats. For Trump to be removed from office, a good number of Republicans will have to be persuaded to vote to do so by incontrovertible evidence of serious wrongdoing. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. Many Republicans seem to be hitching their anchor to him and who knows how tied up in the Russia investigation some of them may be, so they will be fighting for their own preservation as much as Trump's. Hopefully, at the bare minimum, Democrats will put a screeching halt to the Trump/GOP agenda in Congress for the last half of Trump's Presidency and we make him a single-term President in 2020.