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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Sat Jan 6, 2018, 11:41 AM Jan 2018

The Labor Force Participation Rate is hovering at 62.7%

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Labor Force Participation Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 62.70 percent in December of 2017. Labor Force Participation Rate in the United States averaged 63 percent from 1950 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 67.30 percent in January of 2000 and a record low of 58.10 percent in December of 1954.

When President Obama was president we were told to ignore the unemployment rate and focus on the Labor force Participation Rate. What happened ?

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The Labor Force Participation Rate is hovering at 62.7% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2018 OP

We were also told in the campaign that there were 94 million "jobless Americans". Now? 95.5 million progree Jan 2018 #1

The most interesting numbers to me are U 6 and the Labor Force Participation Rate DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2018 #2

In case anyone wants to look up the numbers and see the graphs progree Jan 2018 #3

Where do you see GDP going ? DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2018 #4

Dunno. Depends how many more workers continue to come off the sidelines progree Jan 2018 #5

Trump said we might see 6% GDP growth. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2018 #6

6% GDP growth is not unreasonable progree Jan 2018 #7

progree

(10,908 posts)

1. We were also told in the campaign that there were 94 million "jobless Americans". Now? 95.5 million

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Jan 6, 2018, 12:10 PM

Jan 2018

Caligula sometimes talked about 94 million jobless Americans during the campaign,

(citing the "Not In Labor Force" number) and said the real unemployment rate is 40% --
Not in Labor Force, Age 16+ https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

Here is the 12 months of 2017 (in thousands):

2017: 94364 94248 94179 94407 95038 94743 94684 94759 94480 95395 95416 95512

Interestingly, its up by 1,148,000 since the inaugural month of January, so you don't hear very much about it from Trump or his Trumpanzees anymore. (1.148 million more "jobless Americans" to use Trump's campaign rhetoric)

I discuss this some more at
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=466755

Some other stats of interest:

Civilian labor force, 16 and over, thousands, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000

Civilian noninstitutional population, 16 and over, Thousands, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000

Since January, the Labor Force has grown by only 879,000,
the Not in Labor Force number has grown by 1,148,000
while the civilian non-institutional population (the sum of the above two numbers) has grown by 2,027,000

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

2. The most interesting numbers to me are U 6 and the Labor Force Participation Rate

Reply to progree (Reply #1)

Sat Jan 6, 2018, 12:17 PM

Jan 2018

They have barely budged.

progree

(10,908 posts)

3. In case anyone wants to look up the numbers and see the graphs

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #2)

Sat Jan 6, 2018, 12:37 PM

Jan 2018

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# Official Unemployment rate (U3) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

Dec'16 Dec'17
==== ====
62.7% 62.7% LFPR Labor Force Participation Rate
4.7% ` 4.1% Official Unemployment rate (U3)
9.1% ` 8.1% U-6 unemployment rate (includes part-timers wanting full-time work)
95,006 95,512 Not in Labor Force (thousands)
5,674 ` 5,308 Not in Labor Force, Wants Job (thousands)

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

4. Where do you see GDP going ?

Reply to progree (Reply #3)

Sat Jan 6, 2018, 12:53 PM

Jan 2018

progree

(10,908 posts)

5. Dunno. Depends how many more workers continue to come off the sidelines

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Sat Jan 6, 2018, 04:53 PM

Jan 2018

I've been astonished by the job growth figures in the past couple of years.

Civilian non-institutional (cni) population, age 16+ http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
Civilian non-institutional (cni) population, age 65+ http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000097

Figures are in thousands:

Dec'16 ` Dec'17 Change
254,742 256,109 1,367 Civilian non-institutional (cni) population, age 16+
48,837 ` 50,319 1,482 Civilian non-institutional (cni) population, age 65+
205,905 205,790 -115 Civilian non-institutional (cni) population, age 16-64 (subtracting the two lines above)

Apparently, the age 16-64 cni population has decreased by 115,000

Some people make an enormous thing about older people working longer than they used to, but the LFPR of this age 65+ group is still a low 19.0% (Dec'17) compared to 62.7% for the age 16+ group. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

6. Trump said we might see 6% GDP growth.

Reply to progree (Reply #5)

Sat Jan 6, 2018, 05:09 PM

Jan 2018

That won't happen with an aging work force and a graying population.

progree

(10,908 posts)

7. 6% GDP growth is not unreasonable

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #6)

Sat Jan 6, 2018, 05:13 PM

Jan 2018

over a 3 year period (2%/year)

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