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highplainsdem

(49,022 posts)
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 11:41 AM Jan 2018

Larry Sabato's warning to Dems: Overconfidence about an election 10 months away can be deadly.

Tweeted a few minutes ago:







Press & pundits have now progressed to flat predictions of Dem tsunami in Nov. midterms. Quite possible given Trump...but also premature. Fine to be motivated by good polls, but let 2016 be a cautionary tale. Overconfidence about an election 10 months away can be deadly.
22 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Larry Sabato's warning to Dems: Overconfidence about an election 10 months away can be deadly. (Original Post) highplainsdem Jan 2018 OP
+1000 janterry Jan 2018 #1
Absolutley! Wounded Bear Jan 2018 #2
Don't Be Confident! MineralMan Jan 2018 #3
+100000 crazycatlady Jan 2018 #4
Exactly! 10 months is an eternity Va Lefty Jan 2018 #5
Overconfidence and underestimating the lenghts that repubs Merlot Jan 2018 #6
No lets be depressed and plan on losing that is so inspiring after all...sarcasm. Demsrule86 Jan 2018 #7
We need to be optimistic yet vigilant, enthusiastic but cautious. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2018 #9
What does that even mean? I hear stuff like this all the time...how are we vigilant? Demsrule86 Jan 2018 #21
I agree but negativity can be worse JI7 Jan 2018 #8
as long as trump is being trump, he keeps the fire in our hearts going and its beachbum bob Jan 2018 #10
.. roamer65 Jan 2018 #12
This will be retributionary voting. roamer65 Jan 2018 #11
Does James Comey plan on rigging this election too? (eom) StevieM Jan 2018 #13
Agree! Never underestimate the stupidity of some American voters. Vinca Jan 2018 #14
2018 - The Reckoning Drahthaardogs Jan 2018 #15
Nobodys overconfident BannonsLiver Jan 2018 #16
oh ffs, no one is over confident bigtree Jan 2018 #17
agreed NewJeffCT Jan 2018 #18
No impeachment talk (I'm serious) Quemado Jan 2018 #19
From 2016 - Do not believe the pundits and their polls that tells us to.Do Enoki33 Jan 2018 #20
GOTV. Fuck the pundits. Fuck the Trump voters. dalton99a Jan 2018 #22

Wounded Bear

(58,685 posts)
2. Absolutley!
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 11:47 AM
Jan 2018

Much work to be done. Thankfully, I hear a lot of good things about grass roots organizing and increased numbers of Dems running.

That's the kind of stuff we need to be hearing 10 months out, that people are working to correct the problems.

crazycatlady

(4,492 posts)
4. +100000
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 11:49 AM
Jan 2018

Dems need to put their money and/or time where their mouth is.

Doors need to be knocked, voters need to be registered, calls need to be made.

Merlot

(9,696 posts)
6. Overconfidence and underestimating the lenghts that repubs
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 11:51 AM
Jan 2018

will go to hold onto power is deadly indeed. 2016 everybody. 2016.

Demsrule86

(68,632 posts)
21. What does that even mean? I hear stuff like this all the time...how are we vigilant?
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 07:40 PM
Jan 2018

I will work for the party to elect as many Dems as I can in 18 and 20...I will vote and encourage others to do the same. What more can we do ? I know the Russians are at it again...look at the Chelsea Manning situation...she is supported by Greenwald and Assange (Russian interference already) to go after a sitting Democrat...but there is not much we can do about it.

JI7

(89,260 posts)
8. I agree but negativity can be worse
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 12:05 PM
Jan 2018

My hope is that tom perez is doing all he can to make sure there is a good GOTV organization/strategy in place so no matter what happens we already have something strong in place to start off with.

For example making sure as many/all of those who will vote for D if they were to vote DO vote. That there is nobody who isn't or doesn't vote because of things like not being able to get to polls .

I still think something like obamas 'Don't boo, VOTE' is one of the best lines we have. Especially the way he says it and how it points to how important that is.

 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
10. as long as trump is being trump, he keeps the fire in our hearts going and its
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 12:10 PM
Jan 2018

not "over confident" but anger driving democrats for fucking once.

roamer65

(36,747 posts)
11. This will be retributionary voting.
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 12:16 PM
Jan 2018

The longer Dump squats in the WH, the worse it will get for Repukes.

People will come in droves for the big referendum in November.

bigtree

(86,005 posts)
17. oh ffs, no one is over confident
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 12:55 PM
Jan 2018

...scared shitless, more like it.

I absolutely hate lectures like this. We should feel confident in our ability to influence the political system.

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)
18. agreed
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 12:59 PM
Jan 2018

I've been trying to state the true fact that Democrats just holding even in the Senate would be a huge victory and repudiation of Trump, but I know the media won't sell it like that even if Democrats pick up 50 seats in the House.

The Senate map has been called the toughest in history for Democrats, and I agree.

Quemado

(1,262 posts)
19. No impeachment talk (I'm serious)
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 01:17 PM
Jan 2018

There is a history of backlash in American politics.

Impeachment talk will rile the Trump base and other voters sympathetic to Trump.

Don't give the base a reason to show up at the polls.

Enoki33

(1,587 posts)
20. From 2016 - Do not believe the pundits and their polls that tells us to.Do
Sun Jan 14, 2018, 01:21 PM
Jan 2018

not depend solely on others to do what we personally can do, however simple and seemingly insignificant. We all have to focus on GOTV.

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