The Key to the Congressional Elections are the 19% of 2016 Voters Who Disliked Both Candidates

The reasoning goes like this: People went to the polls in three groups. Those who favored Clinton, those who favored Trump, and a large group of people who disliked both candidates. Republicans won down ballot contests in 2016 because nearly everyone in the country assumed Hillary would win.

Now, let's follow the logic. If you favored Clinton, you voted for her and the Democrats, down ballot. If you favored Trump, you voted for him and the Republicans, down ballot. But 19% of voters in the exit polls liked neither candidate and split, relatively evenly on the top of the ballot. But, they voted by an overwhelming margin for Republicans for Senate and Congress. The reason for this anomaly is that, because of the assumption of a Hillary Clinton victory, a voter who disliked both candidates voted for the Republican as a measure to stand in opposition to a President that they didn't like as a candidate.

Now, that President is not the person they thought would win, but it's still the guy they also didn't like. He has done nothing to change that voter's opinion, in the interim. That 19%, who went to the polls in 2016, even though they didn't like even one of the major party candidates, knows who the President is for the next two years and if they want to have a moderating condition placed on him, the logic goes, they will vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate for Senate and Congress.

I have linked to an article in July that speaks to this theory. At the time, the Democrats held a 9 point lead in the generic ballot. Now, that lead is 17% in the latest polls.

I know we still need to work, so please don't respond to me with that advice. I have worked all my life (65 years old), and continue to work for Democrats at every level government throughout the year.

This is just to let you know that we need to swim as long and as fast as we can, but we can be heartened that the current is with us.

Link:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bad-news-for-house-republicans-clinton-wont-be-on-the-ballot-in-2018/