FL: Sarasota State House spepcial election has major parties on edge

Candidates typically don’t change tactics when they’re working well.

So when Republican state House candidate James Buchanan decided to stop avoiding campaign appearances with his opponents and agreed last week to a debate it was viewed by some of his supporters as a sign that the avoidance strategy — one often employed by front-runners — was starting to hurt him.

Leading Southwest Florida Republicans have expressed concerns about the District 72 race in recent days. They point to a state Senate contest in Wisconsin as an ominous harbinger for the GOP. A Democrat won a special election for the Wisconsin seat last week, despite President Donald Trump having carried it by 17 percentage points.

Trump won the Sarasota state House district Buchanan is seeking by 4.4 percentage points.

During a normal election cycle, District 72?s GOP leanings combined with Buchanan’s name recognition — he is the son of U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan — and significant financial resources would put the odds in his favor.

But Democrats are fired up to push back against Trump and the GOP agenda in Congress, and that enthusiasm is manifesting itself in races up and down the ballot, including special elections for legislative seats.

Regardless, Democrats have reason to be nervous as well. Republicans still have a significant voter registration advantage in District 72, which covers much of northern Sarasota County. The seat has been held by a Republican since 2010.

As of Friday evening, Democrats had a slight edge in the number of absentee ballots returned.

The Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections office mailed out 12,545 ballots to Republicans, 11,308 to Democrats and 3,720 to voters with no party or a minor party affiliation.

Democrats had returned 4,607 absentee ballots as of Friday, compared to 4,283 for Republicans and 1,174 for all other voters.


http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20180120/sarasota-state-house-race-has-major-parties-on-edge