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Dow down 300 again... (Original Post) Wounded Bear Feb 2018 OP
Could be just a hiccup, but with all the crazy shit going on The Velveteen Ocelot Feb 2018 #1
Not to worry! MyOwnPeace Feb 2018 #2
He will claim the market is really going up DBoon Feb 2018 #15
And for context Blue_Adept Feb 2018 #3
Incipient inflation ? More fed hikes ? DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2018 #4
Yes and yes. Yavin4 Feb 2018 #5
High P.E.s assume perfection ? DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2018 #9
I think most of this is due to the sell off in the bond market. Interest rates are going up, and still_one Feb 2018 #6
Correction is necessary as current lofty prices are not supported by anything real. democratisphere Feb 2018 #7
This may be a correction lapfog_1 Feb 2018 #14
Agreed. Ali is excellent and extremely knowledgeable. democratisphere Feb 2018 #17
The employment numbers and manufacturing numbers were good, so my guess is that the market will AJT Feb 2018 #8
I wonder if that still holds... Wounded Bear Feb 2018 #12
Nope. lapfog_1 Feb 2018 #13
It's sad that a bad economy may be the only way to bring him down. kentuck Feb 2018 #10
tax reform act of 2017 lapfog_1 Feb 2018 #11
Uncertainty. C_U_L8R Feb 2018 #16
The bubble is bursting spinbaby Feb 2018 #18
That's what I was thinking... Wounded Bear Feb 2018 #19
I'm certain some demonstrative director of the domestic Dow will be along soon LanternWaste Feb 2018 #20
Merrill Lynch / BOA advised clients that the market is overbought Algernon Moncrieff Feb 2018 #21
So that would be about a 3-3.5k point drop, give or take... Wounded Bear Feb 2018 #22
I'd bet on stabilizes. Algernon Moncrieff Feb 2018 #23

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,719 posts)
1. Could be just a hiccup, but with all the crazy shit going on
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:10 PM
Feb 2018

(and the prospect of interest rates going up in March), it's not surprising. Markets hate uncertainty and chaos, and we have plenty of that.

DBoon

(22,366 posts)
15. He will claim the market is really going up
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:23 PM
Feb 2018

and it is only the fake news media that says otherwise

His supporters will believe every word of it, just like they believe the market slumped under Obama

One of my favorite quotes from 1984:

It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday […] it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.

still_one

(92,204 posts)
6. I think most of this is due to the sell off in the bond market. Interest rates are going up, and
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:13 PM
Feb 2018

I think that is what is concerning the market


lapfog_1

(29,205 posts)
14. This may be a correction
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:22 PM
Feb 2018

but more likely related to the bond market (see below).

That analysis was provided by Ali Velshi who may be the smartest business guy on cable at this point ( Since Mark Haines (sp?) passed away )

AJT

(5,240 posts)
8. The employment numbers and manufacturing numbers were good, so my guess is that the market will
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:14 PM
Feb 2018

recover.

Wounded Bear

(58,661 posts)
12. I wonder if that still holds...
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:17 PM
Feb 2018

After 2008-9, the Market was kind of decoupled from those statistics. Pres Obama and Dodd-Frank temporarily stifled it a bit, but it looks like the Market has been going into Casino Mode again.

kentuck

(111,098 posts)
10. It's sad that a bad economy may be the only way to bring him down.
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:14 PM
Feb 2018

We may end up with the "best depression in history".

lapfog_1

(29,205 posts)
11. tax reform act of 2017
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:17 PM
Feb 2018

has roiled the bond market.

Yields on corporate bonds have to go up to match the yields the US Gov is now offering on Tbills. The Tbill yeilds had to increase because the government debt is increasing ( rapidly as it turns out ) so the government has to sell more.

Corporate bonds had to increase to match (nobody buys a lower yielding bond).

That is causing companies to spend more money ( future paybacks on those bonds)... thus the expectation that corporate profits will go down.

Hence... stocks are going down.

The increased profits due to tax cuts was already priced into the market ( thus the run up all of last year )

THANKS Trump! THANKS repukes!

Deficit supply side strikes again. Hope it isn't a "bagel" (obscure West Wing reference)

Wounded Bear

(58,661 posts)
19. That's what I was thinking...
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:40 PM
Feb 2018

it was already announced that the debt limit will hit faster because of reduced revenue.

$1000 bonuses will be a blip on the radar, much like the Bush $300 checks. That will provide some short term cover on bills, but probably won't stimulate anything.

The market is bases on not much more than a gambler's mantra of bet the streak. Works fine until the streak ends.

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
20. I'm certain some demonstrative director of the domestic Dow will be along soon
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:52 PM
Feb 2018

I'm certain some demonstrative director of the domestic Dow will be along soon to lecture us that the fall is merely one one-hundredth of the smallest fraction in particle physics; and that by merely reporting the fall, we're becoming both hysterical and berserk.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
21. Merrill Lynch / BOA advised clients that the market is overbought
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 12:55 PM
Feb 2018

They are looking for a 12% correction

Per CNBC

The frantic dash into stocks has hit a boiling point, causing a reliable indicator from Bank of America Merrill Lynch to flash a sell signal Friday.

High levels of investor enthusiasm can be a bad thing when it comes to financial markets, as too much money can push valuations out of whack. BofAML's historically reliable indicator is pointing to just such a period.

The firm's strategists say overheated bullishness tripped its "sell" indicator Tuesday, in the early stages of what has been a rough week. When all is said and done, technical indicators point to a level of 2,686 on the S&P 500, which would represent a nearly 5 percent drop from Thursday's closing level, BofAML said in a note to clients.


This is the 12th time that the "Bull & Bear" indicator has indicated a "sell" position dating to 2002, and each time has been accurate, the firm said in a note last week. The average peak-to-trough return is a drop of 12 percent.

Wounded Bear

(58,661 posts)
22. So that would be about a 3-3.5k point drop, give or take...
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 01:23 PM
Feb 2018

any bets on whether it stabilizes there or shoots right on through?

Not holding my breath. Sorry for all those who will lose retirement and 401 funds. I don't have any skin in the Wall Street game, so my hits will be secondary in escalating prices and such.

Time to hunker down.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
23. I'd bet on stabilizes.
Fri Feb 2, 2018, 01:57 PM
Feb 2018

I thought the market would correct back down to around 13K when it hit 16.5K - so what the Hell do I know.

Earnings are a mixed bag, and it's hard to interpret accurately, since a lot of companies (especially in housing) are taking charges because of the new tax law. Inflation and rising labor costs are expected to be a thing this year - while I don't think we'll see $15, the marketplace is effectively raising a lot of minimum wage jobs in my area to $10 - 12. My state has the legal minimum wage headed up to $9, IIRC.

If you are in the market and nearing retirement, it might be a good time to move some of your funds into safer investments.

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