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FarCenter

(19,429 posts)
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 09:28 AM Feb 2018

"The Vol Market Finally Broke": A Quant Explains What Happened To The Market

Fade to Black

The “grey swan” we all have spoken about for years—that being the absurd “tail wagging the dog” potential of VIX ETN market structure (inverse and leveraged products) AND the massive growth in “negative convexity” / “vol target” / “vol rebalancing” strategies to either generate extra income or “systematically allocate risk” (looks good in the prospectus, right?!) –finally “broke” the volatility market, and has now bled-through to the “underlying” spot equities market…as the short vol trade went “lights out.”

The ETNs are the “patient zero” of this current market meltdown. It is estimated that there was anywhere from ~$125mm to $200mm of vega / VIX futs to BUY on the close from the two main “short VIX” ETNs that rebalance daily (XIV and SVXY). As S&P traded -50 handles AFTER the cash close from 4:00pm to 4:15pm into the market’s anticipation of the massive rebalancing of volatility (buy to cover) on the close, XIV then saw a delayed and terrifying ~-87 PERCENT move after the close, as some who owned XIV puts as crash protection sniffed this potential and speculated liquidation from the ETN, which is set per a rules-based system to buy back short vega after an 80% “crash trigger”(which again isn’t a certainty because they use a blend of 1st and 2nd month). The asset pool nonetheless was seemingly / largely wiped-out and the note is guaranteed to “pay out” to their shareholders as set per their prospectus. It is likely that this thing has indeed been “triggered” and will be forced to liquidate. SVXY doesn’t have the firm 80% “trigger” but too is seeing its NAV “wiped out” and is trading ~-80% post-close as well.

The issue NOW is the pile-on going-forward across assets, as the systematic “short vol” community’s models are now completely toast, and they too will be forced to cover remaining “short vol” positions that didn’t trade today—i.e. BE PREPARED FOR A MAJOR VIX FOLLOW-THROUGH TOMORROW.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/vol-market-finally-broke-quant-explains-what-happened-today-and-what-coming

XIV, SVXY Halted, News Pending

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/xiv-svxy-halted-news-pending

It's all about derivatives again. In this case it is about inverse options on the Volatility Index sold in the ETF market.

And then things are bad enough that there's an options squeeze causing more deleveraging.

31 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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"The Vol Market Finally Broke": A Quant Explains What Happened To The Market (Original Post) FarCenter Feb 2018 OP
No cilla4progress Feb 2018 #1
We are fucked again. Lochloosa Feb 2018 #2
OK, this, cilla4progress Feb 2018 #4
This. It says so in the fine print Wwcd Feb 2018 #8
That was my reaction too. Kentonio Feb 2018 #6
Me too. NT mahatmakanejeeves Feb 2018 #18
Can somebody please translate this? It reads like an Onion-article. DetlefK Feb 2018 #3
An onion article would be much more readable. former9thward Feb 2018 #9
"But you would react in the same partisan defensive manner..." LanternWaste Feb 2018 #23
This is written in hedge fund language. LuckyCharms Feb 2018 #5
Hmm..Hedge Fund? Scaramucci has big plans for his hedge fund biz..hmmm Wwcd Feb 2018 #16
Whut? The Velveteen Ocelot Feb 2018 #7
Dafuq?? pnwest Feb 2018 #10
Is this talking about a pending short squeeze? n/t LuckyCharms Feb 2018 #11
Clear as mud. The one thing that grabbed me though GusBob Feb 2018 #12
The VIX is a measure of volatility. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2018 #13
Ah market speak used by a Quant makes it too difficult to understand by a farmer Farmer-Rick Feb 2018 #14
Farmers have a hard time because most sell relatively simple stuff, even tho production is complex FarCenter Feb 2018 #22
Ah, but after a 20 year career in the Navy Farmer-Rick Feb 2018 #24
Iv'e always considered farming intellectually challenging FarCenter Feb 2018 #25
your father onethatcares Feb 2018 #30
It's No Men Clay Chur OhNo-Really Feb 2018 #27
Let me guess - big bets on market direction with Other Peoples' Money? hatrack Feb 2018 #15
market in volatility cojoel Feb 2018 #17
Maybe I can turn to Babble to learn Jargonian. Stinky The Clown Feb 2018 #19
This article may help explain what happened in English rather than trade talk... Javaman Feb 2018 #20
OK, muuuch better Sentath Feb 2018 #21
Folks, the market will go up and the market will go down Cary Feb 2018 #26
I wouldn't dare buy now OhNo-Really Feb 2018 #28
Beware the "Dead Cat Bounce!" yallerdawg Feb 2018 #29
Thank you Javaman Leighbythesea Feb 2018 #31
 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
23. "But you would react in the same partisan defensive manner..."
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 04:47 PM
Feb 2018

"But you would react in the same partisan defensive manner..." as a defensive partisan once wrote.

LuckyCharms

(17,459 posts)
5. This is written in hedge fund language.
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 09:40 AM
Feb 2018

I can interpret only fragments of this.

What is the conclusive point of this information?

Thanks in advance.

 

Wwcd

(6,288 posts)
16. Hmm..Hedge Fund? Scaramucci has big plans for his hedge fund biz..hmmm
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 10:00 AM
Feb 2018

I would love to hear that this sudden selloff affects these sickeningly priviledged few in a bad way.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/01/24/scaramucci-says-salt-las-vegas-conference-won-t-happen-in-2018.amp

Anthony Scaramucci said he’d like to have a role again in the future of SkyBridge Capital, the fund-of-hedge-funds firm he founded, and scrapped plans to hold his flagship SALT conference in Las Vegas this year.

“If the sale goes through I would like to -- and I’ve talked to the HNA people about -- retaining some equity in the firm and being active in terms of trying to help the firm’s growth and prosperity,” he said Wednesday on Bloomberg TV from Davos, Switzerland.

Scaramucci last year agreed to sell his stake in SkyBridge to a group including an American subsidiary of Chinese conglomerate HNA Group Co.


Snip
Instead, he intends to take a group on a five-day trip to China for an event he’s calling the SALT Platinum Partners Experience.

It will introduce participants to business leaders and entrepreneurs in cities including Shanghai and Beijing.

Scaramucci said SALT will return to Las Vegas in 2019 and that he would continue to own 51 percent of the conference business if the sale proceeds.

Held annually at the Bellagio hotel, SALT is best known for attracting some of the world’s most well-known hedge fund managers, mostly male, as well as its lavish parties and after-parties.

In a radio interview with Bloomberg News earlier Wednesday, he responded to a question about a Financial Times report on groping and harassment of women at a London male-only charity event, predicting that the “seediness” of such events ...
More..

You think Trump's investors will get their money's worth?

GusBob

(7,286 posts)
12. Clear as mud. The one thing that grabbed me though
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 09:44 AM
Feb 2018

The line about the white knight-buy backs-failing to prop up the market

This is the main reason the Dow is overvalued. Cooperations were buying their own stock to drive up value. Trumps tax give away was supposed to prime this

Farmer-Rick

(10,212 posts)
14. Ah market speak used by a Quant makes it too difficult to understand by a farmer
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 09:47 AM
Feb 2018

A lot of careers have their own words for perfectly simple things. Half a person's education in some of these fields is merely learning the language. So, Add to that the fact that Quants are Not valued for their communication and social skills and you have something that makes absolutely no sense to this farmer.

But thanks for trying.

 

FarCenter

(19,429 posts)
22. Farmers have a hard time because most sell relatively simple stuff, even tho production is complex
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 02:28 PM
Feb 2018

The real money is made selling complex stuff that the buyer's don't understand.

That goes for business, finance, politics, science, academia, ...

Farmer-Rick

(10,212 posts)
24. Ah, but after a 20 year career in the Navy
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 07:13 PM
Feb 2018

I really wanted a simple job...But, if you look at organic farming and synchronizing your inputs and outputs it can get quite compex. But of course not as complex as this.

Who was it that said capitalism excels at selling imaginary products or some such statement?

 

FarCenter

(19,429 posts)
25. Iv'e always considered farming intellectually challenging
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 07:26 PM
Feb 2018

My father had a 6th grade education, but he knew a lot about animal husbandry, agronomy, mechanics, electricity, carpentry, blacksmithing, and a whole lot of other skills that farming requires. If you hire tradesmen to do all those tasks, you will not have much to live on from the things you sell.

onethatcares

(16,185 posts)
30. your father
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 08:25 PM
Feb 2018

was a wise man.

My father also.

My sons, don't need such dirty hand things to make them feel good. They have "investments".

facepalm: :

hatrack

(59,592 posts)
15. Let me guess - big bets on market direction with Other Peoples' Money?
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 10:00 AM
Feb 2018

And they didn't work out? And we pay?

Sounds about right.

Javaman

(62,534 posts)
20. This article may help explain what happened in English rather than trade talk...
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 12:12 PM
Feb 2018

The Risk We Warned You About: ‘Short-Vol’ Was a Money Maker…Until It Wasn’t

https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-vol-trades-the-risk-we-warned-you-about-1517882936

The "can't-miss" trade of 2017 is blowing up, even as it helped send stocks plunging Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 losing over 4%, most of it in a wild, last-hour slide.

That sure thing was the sale of futures on the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures the volatility of options on the S&P 500. That strategy--called "shorting vol" in trader lingo--was close to a sure thing in the record-low volatility that stretched across every asset class, from equities to bonds to currencies, until just a few days ago.

As I explained in Up and Down Wall Street, the strategy involved the sale of longer-dated futures on the VIX, which were priced based on the expected volatility of the S&P 500 a few months down the road.

VIX futures traded above the level of the "spot" VIX quoted in the media--the so-called fear gauge--a condition called "contango" in the futures market. As the VIX futures approach expiration, their prices converge on the spot VIX, falling from 3% to 10% per month. The VIX futures short sellers then get to cover at a profit--if markets maintain their historically low volatility; that is, if nothing bad happens. As the stock market continued on its straight-line ascent, the record-low VIX made the strategy a sure thing.

more at link...

Cary

(11,746 posts)
26. Folks, the market will go up and the market will go down
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 07:37 PM
Feb 2018

No one knows where it will go and if they did they wouldn't tell you or me.

Over the long run invest and you will make money.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
29. Beware the "Dead Cat Bounce!"
Tue Feb 6, 2018, 07:50 PM
Feb 2018

Just as the pundits argued there was nothing fundamentally wrong - some 'shorts' made good, bought more on the uptick, and now we're back where we started.

The elites make money when Wall Street soars. The elites make money when Wall Street crashes.

The elites are whales. The rest of us are sardines in a pull-top can.

Leighbythesea

(92 posts)
31. Thank you Javaman
Wed Feb 7, 2018, 12:04 AM
Feb 2018

That explanation was helpful. I read about this yesterday (along with info on gold) and it was so hard to understand. The author I read did say "this is how it ends " however----regarding how the market goes down next time.

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