General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums"The Vol Market Finally Broke": A Quant Explains What Happened To The Market
Fade to Black
The grey swan we all have spoken about for yearsthat being the absurd tail wagging the dog potential of VIX ETN market structure (inverse and leveraged products) AND the massive growth in negative convexity / vol target / vol rebalancing strategies to either generate extra income or systematically allocate risk (looks good in the prospectus, right?!) finally broke the volatility market, and has now bled-through to the underlying spot equities market
as the short vol trade went lights out.
The ETNs are the patient zero of this current market meltdown. It is estimated that there was anywhere from ~$125mm to $200mm of vega / VIX futs to BUY on the close from the two main short VIX ETNs that rebalance daily (XIV and SVXY). As S&P traded -50 handles AFTER the cash close from 4:00pm to 4:15pm into the markets anticipation of the massive rebalancing of volatility (buy to cover) on the close, XIV then saw a delayed and terrifying ~-87 PERCENT move after the close, as some who owned XIV puts as crash protection sniffed this potential and speculated liquidation from the ETN, which is set per a rules-based system to buy back short vega after an 80% crash trigger(which again isnt a certainty because they use a blend of 1st and 2nd month). The asset pool nonetheless was seemingly / largely wiped-out and the note is guaranteed to pay out to their shareholders as set per their prospectus. It is likely that this thing has indeed been triggered and will be forced to liquidate. SVXY doesnt have the firm 80% trigger but too is seeing its NAV wiped out and is trading ~-80% post-close as well.
The issue NOW is the pile-on going-forward across assets, as the systematic short vol communitys models are now completely toast, and they too will be forced to cover remaining short vol positions that didnt trade todayi.e. BE PREPARED FOR A MAJOR VIX FOLLOW-THROUGH TOMORROW.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/vol-market-finally-broke-quant-explains-what-happened-today-and-what-coming
XIV, SVXY Halted, News Pending
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/xiv-svxy-halted-news-pending
It's all about derivatives again. In this case it is about inverse options on the Volatility Index sold in the ETF market.
And then things are bad enough that there's an options squeeze causing more deleveraging.
cilla4progress
(24,770 posts)clue
What you are talking about here.
Lochloosa
(16,068 posts)cilla4progress
(24,770 posts)I get.
Wwcd
(6,288 posts)Kentonio
(4,377 posts)mahatmakanejeeves
(57,613 posts)DetlefK
(16,423 posts)former9thward
(32,082 posts)LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)"But you would react in the same partisan defensive manner..." as a defensive partisan once wrote.
LuckyCharms
(17,459 posts)I can interpret only fragments of this.
What is the conclusive point of this information?
Thanks in advance.
Wwcd
(6,288 posts)I would love to hear that this sudden selloff affects these sickeningly priviledged few in a bad way.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/01/24/scaramucci-says-salt-las-vegas-conference-won-t-happen-in-2018.amp
Anthony Scaramucci said hed like to have a role again in the future of SkyBridge Capital, the fund-of-hedge-funds firm he founded, and scrapped plans to hold his flagship SALT conference in Las Vegas this year.
If the sale goes through I would like to -- and Ive talked to the HNA people about -- retaining some equity in the firm and being active in terms of trying to help the firms growth and prosperity, he said Wednesday on Bloomberg TV from Davos, Switzerland.
Scaramucci last year agreed to sell his stake in SkyBridge to a group including an American subsidiary of Chinese conglomerate HNA Group Co.
Snip
Instead, he intends to take a group on a five-day trip to China for an event hes calling the SALT Platinum Partners Experience.
It will introduce participants to business leaders and entrepreneurs in cities including Shanghai and Beijing.
Scaramucci said SALT will return to Las Vegas in 2019 and that he would continue to own 51 percent of the conference business if the sale proceeds.
Held annually at the Bellagio hotel, SALT is best known for attracting some of the worlds most well-known hedge fund managers, mostly male, as well as its lavish parties and after-parties.
In a radio interview with Bloomberg News earlier Wednesday, he responded to a question about a Financial Times report on groping and harassment of women at a London male-only charity event, predicting that the seediness of such events ...
More..
You think Trump's investors will get their money's worth?
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,858 posts)pnwest
(3,266 posts)LuckyCharms
(17,459 posts)GusBob
(7,286 posts)The line about the white knight-buy backs-failing to prop up the market
This is the main reason the Dow is overvalued. Cooperations were buying their own stock to drive up value. Trumps tax give away was supposed to prime this
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)There are better economic sites than zerohedge.
Farmer-Rick
(10,212 posts)A lot of careers have their own words for perfectly simple things. Half a person's education in some of these fields is merely learning the language. So, Add to that the fact that Quants are Not valued for their communication and social skills and you have something that makes absolutely no sense to this farmer.
But thanks for trying.
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)The real money is made selling complex stuff that the buyer's don't understand.
That goes for business, finance, politics, science, academia, ...
Farmer-Rick
(10,212 posts)I really wanted a simple job...But, if you look at organic farming and synchronizing your inputs and outputs it can get quite compex. But of course not as complex as this.
Who was it that said capitalism excels at selling imaginary products or some such statement?
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)My father had a 6th grade education, but he knew a lot about animal husbandry, agronomy, mechanics, electricity, carpentry, blacksmithing, and a whole lot of other skills that farming requires. If you hire tradesmen to do all those tasks, you will not have much to live on from the things you sell.
onethatcares
(16,185 posts)was a wise man.
My father also.
My sons, don't need such dirty hand things to make them feel good. They have "investments".
facepalm: :
OhNo-Really
(3,985 posts)hatrack
(59,592 posts)And they didn't work out? And we pay?
Sounds about right.
cojoel
(957 posts)gambling, by any other name, would still be risky...
Stinky The Clown
(67,818 posts)What the ever loving fuck does that mean?
Javaman
(62,534 posts)The Risk We Warned You About: Short-Vol Was a Money Maker
Until It Wasnt
https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-vol-trades-the-risk-we-warned-you-about-1517882936
The "can't-miss" trade of 2017 is blowing up, even as it helped send stocks plunging Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 losing over 4%, most of it in a wild, last-hour slide.
That sure thing was the sale of futures on the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures the volatility of options on the S&P 500. That strategy--called "shorting vol" in trader lingo--was close to a sure thing in the record-low volatility that stretched across every asset class, from equities to bonds to currencies, until just a few days ago.
As I explained in Up and Down Wall Street, the strategy involved the sale of longer-dated futures on the VIX, which were priced based on the expected volatility of the S&P 500 a few months down the road.
VIX futures traded above the level of the "spot" VIX quoted in the media--the so-called fear gauge--a condition called "contango" in the futures market. As the VIX futures approach expiration, their prices converge on the spot VIX, falling from 3% to 10% per month. The VIX futures short sellers then get to cover at a profit--if markets maintain their historically low volatility; that is, if nothing bad happens. As the stock market continued on its straight-line ascent, the record-low VIX made the strategy a sure thing.
more at link...
Sentath
(2,243 posts)Thank You
Cary
(11,746 posts)No one knows where it will go and if they did they wouldn't tell you or me.
Over the long run invest and you will make money.
OhNo-Really
(3,985 posts)prices are too high imo
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)Just as the pundits argued there was nothing fundamentally wrong - some 'shorts' made good, bought more on the uptick, and now we're back where we started.
The elites make money when Wall Street soars. The elites make money when Wall Street crashes.
The elites are whales. The rest of us are sardines in a pull-top can.
Leighbythesea
(92 posts)That explanation was helpful. I read about this yesterday (along with info on gold) and it was so hard to understand. The author I read did say "this is how it ends " however----regarding how the market goes down next time.