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DonViejo

(60,536 posts) Wed Feb 7, 2018, 10:29 AM Feb 2018

In dueling Florida Senate polls, Nelson either leads or is tied with Scott

By MARC CAPUTO 02/07/2018 05:05 AM EST

MIAMI — Sen. Bill Nelson is either tied with Gov. Rick Scott or starting to pull ahead of the likely Republican challenger in what could be the nation’s most-expensive Senate race, according to a pair of dueling polls released today.

In a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey of 625 registered Florida voters, Nelson is basically tied with Scott, 45-44 percent. That result is essentially unchanged since the firm’s October poll, which found the two tied evenly at 44 percent each.

A University of North Florida poll of 429 likely Florida voters, however, had better news for the incumbent. It showed Nelson leading Scott 48-42 percent. Nelson’s 6-point advantage has grown since UNF’s last survey, in October, when the Democrat had a marginal one-point lead over Scott, 37-36 percent.

The differences between the poll results can be chalked up to different sample sizes and methods (UNF surveyed fewer people but screened for likely voters) and natural variations that occur when different people survey different people from the same population. The UNF poll’s error margin is 4.7 points and Mason-Dixon’s is 4 points.

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https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/02/07/in-dueling-florida-senate-polls-nelson-either-leads-or-is-tied-with-scott-241233

11 replies

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In dueling Florida Senate polls, Nelson either leads or is tied with Scott (Original Post) DonViejo Feb 2018 OP

This shouldn't even be a contest mcar Feb 2018 #1

If I were Senator Nelson, Id make the response to Puerto Rico a major issue Tommy_Carcetti Feb 2018 #2

100k new voters from Puerto Rico lagomorph777 Feb 2018 #4

Here's hoping... Wounded Bear Feb 2018 #6

And Senator Nelson needs to take the lead on it. Tommy_Carcetti Feb 2018 #7

Scott has been visiting the island regularly and has courted IluvPitties Feb 2018 #10

Please write him and tell him to do that! lagomorph777 Feb 2018 #11

I think this is a very important race that we are ignoring janterry Feb 2018 #3

Yep Panhandle still loves Trump, too RockaFowler Feb 2018 #5

This is going to be a tough one. NCTraveler Feb 2018 #8

Scott is a smug, rich, corrupt, hateful SOB DFW Feb 2018 #9

mcar

(42,403 posts)

1. This shouldn't even be a contest

Reply to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 10:32 AM

Feb 2018

Gov Voldemort in the Senate? God, no.

I'll do everything I can to help Nelson win!

Tommy_Carcetti

(43,219 posts)

2. If I were Senator Nelson, Id make the response to Puerto Rico a major issue

Reply to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 10:36 AM

Feb 2018

Somehow I think that’s going to play a big role this go round.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)

4. 100k new voters from Puerto Rico

Reply to Tommy_Carcetti (Reply #2)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:26 AM

Feb 2018

IF Nelson can get them registered and out to the polls.

Wounded Bear

(58,737 posts)

6. Here's hoping...

Reply to lagomorph777 (Reply #4)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:30 AM

Feb 2018

I have to believe they're working on that. Those Puerto Ricans should be motivated, since they just suffered the "efficiency" of the Trump/Repub administration.

Tommy_Carcetti

(43,219 posts)

7. And Senator Nelson needs to take the lead on it.

Reply to Wounded Bear (Reply #6)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:38 AM

Feb 2018

Not only because of the fact there are people moving to Florida from Puerto Rico, but you already had a large diaspora in Florida before Maria.

And not just for political reasons. We need to hit home on the fact that the Trump Administration (and his party) are ignoring US Citizens at their most vulnerable time of need.

IluvPitties

(3,181 posts)

10. Scott has been visiting the island regularly and has courted

Reply to lagomorph777 (Reply #4)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:53 AM

Feb 2018

PR voters. Nelson has not had the same level of visibility. I am a Puerto Rican in Florida, so I know.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)

11. Please write him and tell him to do that!

Reply to IluvPitties (Reply #10)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:56 AM

Feb 2018

Most politicians only listen to their constituents (or, of course huge donors).

janterry

(4,429 posts)

3. I think this is a very important race that we are ignoring

Reply to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:22 AM

Feb 2018

I think people think Nelson will win because he has won before. I don't think so. I think Scott is going to offer a real challenge (idiot that he is).

I lived in the Panhandle for 16 years - and there are plenty of areas that will vote as a block for Scott - even those so-called union members who work for the prisons (a big employer up there) all voted for Scott.

This is a race we should pay a lot of attention to!

RockaFowler

(7,429 posts)

5. Yep Panhandle still loves Trump, too

Reply to janterry (Reply #3)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:28 AM

Feb 2018

I don't get it, but OK

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)

8. This is going to be a tough one.

Reply to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:43 AM

Feb 2018

Scott has worked himself in a position where he has "Jeb" appeal.

Nelson has one thing going for him. Even as long as he has been around in Florida, Scott probably has stronger name recognition. Nelson can go up once his campaign starts in honest. Nelson is out of sight out of mind in Florida, overall.

DFW

(54,448 posts)

9. Scott is a smug, rich, corrupt, hateful SOB

Reply to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Feb 7, 2018, 11:48 AM

Feb 2018

Just the kind of guy Trumpadores love. Nelson is an astronaut hero and a true-believing Christian. They love that, too in Florida. I'm hoping the incumbency factor will hold sway, because Republican electoral corruption has become pretty much institutionalized in Florida since the 2000 presidential race.

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