General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAffadavit on 2016 exit polls from Ron Baiman Ph.D. (economics) with graduate work in mathematics
and B. S. in math and physics (magna cum laude)
http://www.cpegonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Baiman-Draft-affidavit-2016_6-1.pdf
His curriculum vita: http://electionmathematics.org/ucvInfo/staff/RBaimanVita.pdf
Vinnie From Indy
(10,820 posts)csziggy
(34,138 posts)And this Abstract
Updated, Expanded and Corrected Affidavit Version: U.S. 2016 Unadjusted Exit Poll Discrepancies Fit Chronic Republican Vote Count Rigging, not Random Statistical, Patterns (PDF Download Available). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319205877_Updated_Expanded_and_Corrected_Affidavit_Version_US_2016_Unadjusted_Exit_Poll_Discrepancies_Fit_Chronic_Republican_Vote_-_Count_Rigging_not_Random_Statistical_Patterns [accessed Feb 08 2018].
triron
(22,025 posts)Seems no major candidate ever seems to want 'to go there'; including Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.
At least no dems do.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)triron
(22,025 posts)I will say that one of the most notable things he observed was a "red shift"
in the presidential vote in 26 out of 28 states. Probability of this happening is not too far shy of 1 in a million!
triron
(22,025 posts)probability of this is about 4 in 10,000
SoCalMusicLover
(3,194 posts)Pretty detailed analysis showing that the election was rigged, just as I figured.
ananda
(28,879 posts)We've known since Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 that our
elections have been rigged.
The tolerance of it is what gets me!!!!
SoCalMusicLover
(3,194 posts)Elections are for suckers.
triron
(22,025 posts)diva77
(7,663 posts)enough momentum for change to occur. I hope this affidavit gets spread far and wide. I will be sending it to my congresspeople to help make a dent in the ongoing tolerance of election fraud.
pansypoo53219
(21,004 posts)diva77
(7,663 posts)on edit: maybe you were referring to Dump and not the author of the affidavit; in that case, no sarcasm smilie required!!
tosh
(4,424 posts)I've been saying behind bars and penniless, but DELETED would be much better.
Thanks for the pleasant thought!
triron
(22,025 posts)Glimmer of Hope
(5,823 posts)"In conclusion, it is nearly impossible to think of a plausible statistical, or innocent
exit poll error, rationale for the one-sided red shift UEP discrepancy patterns,
with the most highly significant discrepancies occurring in key battle ground and
deep-red states, in the 2016 U.S. general election. These repeated patterns of exit
poll discrepancies with official vote counts are in practice, statistically impossible,
but plausible from a political or election security standpoint. In other words, the
only plausible explanations are how votes are counted, not counted, or miscounted
by partisan and largely unmonitored and unregulated election officials or other
external violators of election security, such as domestic or foreign hackers. "
triron
(22,025 posts)diva77
(7,663 posts)voter fraud and election fraud. They have modeled themselves after Fux. Gwen Ifill is probably rolling in her grave.
mythology
(9,527 posts)He'd know that if he had any actual useful background on the subject.
https://www.thenation.com/article/reminder-exit-poll-conspiracy-theories-are-totally-baseless/
Some media outlets post preliminary data when the polls closethats the supposedly raw data that, according to the conspiracy-minded, reveal the fraud. But those data have already been merged with the results of those telephone interviews, and they have already been adjusted throughout the day (the interviewers send in their survey results in three waves). Unadjusted data are never released. (If you Google exit polls adjusted New York, youll get back dozens of posts claiming that the unadjusted exit polls varied significantly from the final results. All of those posts are dead wrong, as none of their authors have any idea what the unadjusted data looked like.)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit/
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, youll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
Le Gaucher
(1,547 posts)Precinct.
It also ignores people too ashamed to admit voting for Trump - but did so anyway.
This is also the reason that Dotard may have higher approval than reported.
triron
(22,025 posts)Besides this is not based precinct level but state level tallies.
So why doesn't this happen worldwide? Exit polls are accurate in other countries that use them.