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democrank

(11,096 posts)
Sun Apr 8, 2018, 02:49 PM Apr 2018

Anyone here willing to help me understand the situation in Syria?

I'm sickened over this latest horrific chemical attack and can't even imagine the suffering. The U.N. seems so inept when it comes to dealing with war criminals. I know it's complicated, but....

Are there clear "sides" united over specific goals or do different factions have different interests? What does Putin want? Iran? What about the Kurds? Exactly what is the U.S. military doing? Do we have just Special Forces there? Is a diplomatic solution even possible?

I'll appreciate any responses. Thank you.

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Anyone here willing to help me understand the situation in Syria? (Original Post) democrank Apr 2018 OP
I would like to hear some murielm99 Apr 2018 #1
Syria: Allies, Foes, Frenemies and Chimeras EX500rider Apr 2018 #2
Thank you. democrank Apr 2018 #6
Its a cluster fuck. Xolodno Apr 2018 #3
Thank you. democrank Apr 2018 #7
. moondust Apr 2018 #4
Thank you. democrank Apr 2018 #8
all this is well and good, but onethatcares Apr 2018 #5
As long as we aren't on the same side as Russia... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2018 #9

murielm99

(30,745 posts)
1. I would like to hear some
Sun Apr 8, 2018, 03:01 PM
Apr 2018

opinions and facts, too.

We can' t always trust what we read or hear in the media. There are some good analysts here. Has anyone here lived there?

EX500rider

(10,849 posts)
2. Syria: Allies, Foes, Frenemies and Chimeras
Sun Apr 8, 2018, 03:13 PM
Apr 2018

"Iran, Russia, Turkey, the United States and Israel are all present in Syria along with the Assad government and a considerable number of Syrian rebel groups who are still not united . Everyone has different goals and a different (often constantly shifting) set of allies. Keeping track of who is doing what to whom and why (and for how long) has become increasingly difficult. A current summary of allies, foes, frenemies and chimeras goes like this:
Israel wants to keep Iran out of Syria and Lebanon and avoid a war with Iran. For this has the support of the U.S., Russia and most Gulf Arab states. None of these supporters is willing to provide any military assistance, at least not until Iran actually attacks Israel. Russia wants to get Turkey out of NATO, to keep the Iranians from starting a war with Israel and make the Americans look bad. At the same time Russia needs to do this on the cheap and make Russia look good, especially to Russians back home. That is proving difficult as most Russians were not enthusiastic about the Syrian operation in the first place and popular support has been declining.Turkey wants to create a security zone on the Syrian side of the border that has no Kurds or Islamic terrorists in it. Turkey also wants to show the Sunni Moslem world that it can handle Iranian aggression (without going to war with Iran) and keep the Israelis out of Lebanon and Syria. Turkey is willing to play diplomatic games with Russia and Iran to achieve these goals as well as send troops into Syria to fight, and get killed. .

The U.S. wants to ensure that ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) does not reestablish itself in Syria. To help with that the American are doing what they can to help the local Kurds maintain autonomy in northeast Syria (east of the Euphrates) where the Kurds have always been dominant. Secondary objectives are keeping Iran, Turley and Russia out of Syria. The U.S. and Israel are allies and any attack on Israel will trigger American intervention on the Israeli side. But short of that the Americans are quite blunt about stating that their troops are in Syria to deal with terrorists, not Iranian preparations for an attack on Israel. The Americans will not stop Kurds in the northeast from going to the aid of Kurds defending Afrin. The Turks asked the Americans to stop the Kurds and the U.S. refused. Syria in general wants all the fighting to stop but the minority Assad dictatorship wants to resume ruling all of Syria and the Syrian rebels want Assad gone. Iraq would like less violence in Syria and less Iranian interference in Iraq. Iraq also wants its Kurds to be less independent and reduce Islamic terrorist activity in Iraq.

All this can get confusing. For example Israel has persuaded Russia to do what it can to prevent Iran from assembling, arming and positioning a large force of non-Iranian forces to attack Israel. Russia has limited ability to block Iranian efforts but does what it can. Iran is building bases to support a large force of Lebanese (Hezbollah), Syrians (whichever Shia Syrians it can recruit) and lots of foreign Shia mercenaries (mainly Afghans, Iraqis other non-Iranian Shia) in parts of Syria where Russia does not have much military power on the ground and Russian air power cannot occupy ground or otherwise interfere with what Iran is doing. Russia does not want Iran starting a war with Israel but as a practical matter Iran is pretty irrational when it comes to Israel and cannot be stopped by Russian, Turkish or American threats. Russia has publicly criticized Iran for regularly calling for the destruction of Israel. Russia has also sided with Turkey in disagreements with Iran over strategy and tactics in Syria. Russia still considers Iran an ally, but a flawed one that really should work on their bad habits. Currently Turkey, Russia and Iran all say they are working out their differences and continuing to cooperate in Syria."
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/syria/20180308.aspx

Xolodno

(6,395 posts)
3. Its a cluster fuck.
Sun Apr 8, 2018, 04:30 PM
Apr 2018

To make it simple...

1. Russia and Syria want a return to status quo. And they are willing to wipe out swaths of population to obtain it. And as long as Russia has Veto power in the UN, nothing will be done internationally.

2. Turkey want's the Kurds neutered. In Iraq, the Kurds have near defacto self rule, they are a country within a country. Assad has indicated that if they side with him, he would give them something similar. This could embolden Turkey's Kurd population, something they drastically want to avoid. They are siding with Russia in the hopes they will stunt Assad from following through, since the US has pretty much gone one step further implying they could have their own country.

3. Iran wants bases in Syria, where they could directly threaten Israel and funnel unrest in the West Bank and Gaza as a proxy war.

4. Israel wants Iran out of Syria, but is resigned to the fact that is not going to happen since the Sunni's prospect of taking control appears to be doomed. So they are siding with Russia via back channels to reign in Iran.

5. House of Saud, Sunni's, etc. Wanted the Alawite/Shia out of power in Syria and then run their pipeline to Europe. But their arming of radical elements backfired with the rise of ISIS. Thus they have largely bowed out of the civil war.

6. The US, wanted to support "moderate" forces...only, they were largely pretty much a very small minority. The "moderates" were actually Shia/Alawite, which was supporting Assad. So the goal has been predominately supporting the Kurds and eliminating ISIS.

Obama wisely kept us out of this, as we had nothing to gain. But at the same time, its going to be a humanitarian nightmare. We wanted Assad out, but that was thrown out the window when Russia intervened. The US thought they were entering something that would be a mess for them, but were wrong. They read the battlefield better and turned the tide back into Assads favor.

-----------------

Ultimately, those opposing Assad have lost. However, the opposition continues to fight, and so, the atrocities continue. It may be a few years before the civil war ends, but it will end.

onethatcares

(16,172 posts)
5. all this is well and good, but
Sun Apr 8, 2018, 05:47 PM
Apr 2018

does it boil down to: Oil? Religion? Access to warm water ports?

What is the reason for the continual war?

Why kill civilians?

WTF is going on?

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