General Discussion

Locut0s

(6,154 posts) Tue Apr 10, 2018, 10:11 PM Apr 2018

What odds would you put on Trump serving out his full term?

I know that mid term elections will be held at the end of the year and with that I assuming that if a blue wave sweeps the country that perhaps impeachment proceedings are more likely to get some kind of foothold. I don't know the US system that well but I understand a 2/3rds majority would be required in the senate to actually impeach and a quick google shows me the midterm elections have many fewer republican seats up for election in the senate. How likely do you think it is that even after the mid terms it might be hard to impeach Trump? And of course with the Muller investigation he can of course fire Muller at any point. That will of course cause chaos but that's something Trump always loves. Everything still seems to fall to enough republicans turning on Trump?

7 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

What odds would you put on Trump serving out his full term? (Original Post) Locut0s Apr 2018 OP

BIG FAT ZERO! democratisphere Apr 2018 #1

Zero nada zip wasupaloopa Apr 2018 #2

90:10 I don't see him making it through his first term by any way. Frustratedlady Apr 2018 #3

100% GulfCoast66 Apr 2018 #4

99 percent bearsfootball516 Apr 2018 #5

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2018 #6

95% Awsi Dooger Apr 2018 #7

democratisphere

(17,235 posts)

1. BIG FAT ZERO!

Reply to Locut0s (Original post)

Tue Apr 10, 2018, 10:13 PM

Apr 2018

wasupaloopa

(4,516 posts)

2. Zero nada zip

Reply to Locut0s (Original post)

Tue Apr 10, 2018, 10:14 PM

Apr 2018

He will resign after we take over the Congress.

Frustratedlady

(16,254 posts)

3. 90:10 I don't see him making it through his first term by any way.

Reply to Locut0s (Original post)

Tue Apr 10, 2018, 10:17 PM

Apr 2018

If he does, I won't be here. One of us has to go.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)

4. 100%

Reply to Locut0s (Original post)

Tue Apr 10, 2018, 10:20 PM

Apr 2018

He ain’t going anywhere. And republicans will back him to the end. They sold what little was left of their soul in 16.

Impeachment is a pipe dream. If, and it is a big if, we win the House, the best we can do is limit the damage.

Not trying to be a Debbie downer, but the presidency is a very powerful office. Our founding fathers never foresaw a man like Trump in the office or a group like the republicans enabling him.

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)

5. 99 percent

Reply to GulfCoast66 (Reply #4)

Tue Apr 10, 2018, 10:25 PM

Apr 2018

Mueller’s findings would have to be so unbelievably, incredibly damning that the Republicans have no choice but to join the Democrats in order to save themselves. And even if it is, I don’t have much faith that they’ll stand up.

Response to Locut0s (Original post)

Name removed Message auto-removed

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

7. 95%

Reply to Locut0s (Original post)

Tue Apr 10, 2018, 11:20 PM

Apr 2018

At his age there has to be some play in the number for mortality and health reasons. Those factors would be at least equal to the Mueller stuff and anything else that might cause him to leave office voluntarily. Overall I'd estimate 1/20 odds of finishing his term so that would equate to 95%.

I am impressed that others have offered very high numbers. Slightly too high, IMO. There is always some leeway in a future book, which is essentially what this is, more than 30 months removed.

Not what the OP was expecting so far in this thread, if I had to guess. Kudos to the sharp folks on Democratic Underground who resist the Happy Adjuster mode.

I wish Rachel Maddow made the betting odds on anything similar to this. It could be cupcake city.

Reply to this discussion