AZ-08: Republican holds 10-point lead in Arizona special election
Republicans are in a strong position weeks out from Arizona’s House special election, with the party’s nominee holding a sizable 10-point lead, according to a new poll shared first with The Hill.
A survey from Phoenix-based polling firm OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona found former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) garnering 53 percent of the vote, compared to physician and first-time candidate Hiral Tipirneni (D) with 43 percent....
According to the poll, Tipirneni has benefited slightly more from crossover voters. The Arizona Democrat has the support of 14 percent of Republicans, while Lesko has captured 10 percent of Democrats. Plus, Tipirneni has a 12-point edge with independent voters and a strong lead over voters who describe themselves as moderate.
Still, Lesko has a strong grip on the base in a district that skews heavily Republican. More than two-thirds of voters with a high school diploma or less back the Arizona Republican. She also has a majority of support from voters who have college degrees or at least some college education. Tipirneni leads by 10 points among post-graduates, or voters who have more than a bachelor’s degree.
“When the Democrat is up 12-points with independent voters and up by 40 points with self-identified moderate voters, that points to a problem in expanding their base for the GOP this election year,” said Noah Rudnick, a data analyst at OH Predictive Insights.
Arizona is a heavy vote-by-mail state, with early voting having been in full swing since March 28. Of the poll’s 500 respondents, 75 percent — or 373 voters — have already cast a ballot.
Of the 373 early voters, Lesko is leading Tipirneni by 12 points, 56 percent to 44 percent.
For those who haven’t voted yet but plan to cast a ballot, Lesko and Tipirneni are tied at 42 percent each. Sixteen percent of those likely voters are still undecided.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election
