NJ-SEN: Menedez Holds 21-Point Lead Over Republican

West Long Branch, NJ – Democrat Bob Menendez holds a sizable advantage over Republican Bob Hugin in the 2018 race for U.S. Senate according to an early Monmouth University Poll of all New Jersey registered voters. Menendez starts out the campaign with weak approval ratings in part due to fallout from his recent corruption trial. But these negatives are more than offset by the fact he has a “D” next to his name. Hugin, on the other hand, is known to few New Jersey voters at this stage of the race.

Among all registered voters in New Jersey, a majority of 53% say they would vote for the incumbent Menendez and 32% would choose former Celgene Executive Chairman Hugin if the election for senator was today. Menendez is backed by 92% of his fellow Democrats while Hugin is supported by 84% of his fellow Republicans. Independents split 41% for Menendez and 33% for Hugin. Removing “leaners” from the mix – about one-fifth of all registered voters only “lean toward” a candidate at this time – Menendez has a 42% to 22% edge. Both Menendez and Hugin are the prohibitive favorites for their respective parties’ nominations in the June primary.

“Let’s be honest. It’s very unlikely that these results are predictive of the final margin on Election Day. New Jersey voters do not tune in to midterm elections until sometime in October and fewer than half of the voters we polled now will actually show up to vote then. However, the current state of the race does speak to what is perhaps the incumbent’s biggest strength: being a Democrat in a blue state in a year that is looking very good for Democrats,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A major advantage for Menendez is the fact that New Jersey Democrats have a 15 point advantage over Republicans in party registration (37% to 22%) according to state voter rolls. And they have a 17 point advantage in voters’ self-reported party identification (39% to 22%) according to the Monmouth poll.


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_041218/