Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 07:36 AM Apr 2018

2018 vote margin narrows as Democratic engagement slips (POLL)

A Democratic advantage in the upcoming midterm elections has narrowed in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, with indications of lower engagement among members of the party now out of power in the federal government.

A 10-point Democratic lead among all adults narrows to 4 points among registered voters and 5 points among those who say they’re both registered and certain to vote; neither of those is statistically significant. In January, by contrast, Democrats held similar margins in all three groups – 13, 12 and 15 points, respectively.

Factors at play include a slide in self-reported registration among Democrats, which is a sign of waning engagement; consolidation among Republicans of their base; and better results for the GOP among less-educated Americans generally, and non-college-educated white women in particular.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2018-vote-margin-narrows-democratic-engagement-slips-poll/story?id=54482800
28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
2018 vote margin narrows as Democratic engagement slips (POLL) (Original Post) oberliner Apr 2018 OP
Plus no coordinated PR on our end. All people hear is them. Nt Laura PourMeADrink Apr 2018 #1
Amen. Everytime I hear one of Trump's or Sarah Huckabee Sanders' RandomAccess Apr 2018 #22
When we controlled Government.. vi5 Apr 2018 #27
People get the goverment they deserve Fullduplexxx Apr 2018 #2
They used a generic ballot. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #3
I wasn't aware that news had to be "positive"... brooklynite Apr 2018 #4
The results are within the margin of error...3.5 for margin of error. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #7
Some who gets demoralized by reading something here probably should find something else to do... brooklynite Apr 2018 #11
Things here end up on twitter quite often...and voters get demoralized by this sort of thing. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #26
Im all for keeping an eye on these things. NCTraveler Apr 2018 #5
Yep, I always look at internals. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #8
Sometimes the news isn't what we want it to be pintobean Apr 2018 #12
I don't doubt that. I think the House is more difficult than people think with the gerrymander...it Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #25
They interviews about a 1000 people...65% who are landline only ... Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #6
If American voters... mrsv Apr 2018 #9
Oh look. At it again. Squinch Apr 2018 #10
Yep. I look, and I see a spotless plate glass window blake2012 Apr 2018 #20
The upcoming midterm elections are critical oberliner Apr 2018 #21
And that means posting every outlier poll with bad news Squinch Apr 2018 #23
+1. N/t obnoxiousdrunk Apr 2018 #28
What I find is that I have not seen this poll in two years. Saboburns Apr 2018 #13
and then theres 538s numbers.....huge slip for Dems...... a kennedy Apr 2018 #14
Why look at that! Dems chance of taking both houses went UP! Squinch Apr 2018 #15
It is hard to know whether to take this serioulsy or not given the mess the republicans are in. Mr. Sparkle Apr 2018 #16
Yeah - but if nothing else, a little extra motivation for us to work hard in the midterms oberliner Apr 2018 #17
Hahaha! You are hilarious. Keep me coming blake2012 Apr 2018 #18
No joke - we got work to do oberliner Apr 2018 #19
Who is arguing otherwise? LanternWaste Apr 2018 #24
 

RandomAccess

(5,210 posts)
22. Amen. Everytime I hear one of Trump's or Sarah Huckabee Sanders'
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 02:06 PM
Apr 2018

LIES about the Dems, I silently scream: WHERE ARE YOU, DEMOCRATS? These LIES need to be countered.

 

vi5

(13,305 posts)
27. When we controlled Government..
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 09:16 PM
Apr 2018

Republicans were out in force, all the time on every show on every channel.

Everything Democrats did or said, no matter how inconsequential was met with coordinated counter and rebuttal from Republicans at every level.

Justified or not, people may be thinking that Democrats are simply content to sit back and wait for Republicans to implode and self-destruct and then just plan on riding the wave of disgust.

That may work around the margins but its not a long term sustainable strategy.

Demsrule86

(68,582 posts)
3. They used a generic ballot.
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 07:49 AM
Apr 2018

How not surprising to find this post...I can't remember you ever posting positive news for Democrats. However, the blue wave is coming.

brooklynite

(94,586 posts)
4. I wasn't aware that news had to be "positive"...
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 07:52 AM
Apr 2018

As we frame a political campaign, this is a data point to consider. Unless, like Donald Trump, you choose to ignore any polling data that you don't like.

Demsrule86

(68,582 posts)
7. The results are within the margin of error...3.5 for margin of error.
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 08:02 AM
Apr 2018

Yesterday it was reported that Trump's numbers were up by the same poster...using one poll although multiple polls showed him below
40 %. These sort of posts which are multiple if you check are demoralizing and not helpful in our attempts to take back Congress.

brooklynite

(94,586 posts)
11. Some who gets demoralized by reading something here probably should find something else to do...
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 09:15 AM
Apr 2018

This is a discussion board, noting more. Things that get posted here have no impact on politics in the real world.

Demsrule86

(68,582 posts)
26. Things here end up on twitter quite often...and voters get demoralized by this sort of thing.
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 08:31 PM
Apr 2018

The constant negative posts...I just don't see the point. We all know with the gerrymander the House is tough. Look at our win in Virginia...sure we had way more votes but failed to take power...gerrymanders are terrible. I do hope we take governorships and legislatures this year as 20 is coming ...a presidential election and another census. We are so screwed it we don't take back state houses by 20.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
5. Im all for keeping an eye on these things.
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 07:55 AM
Apr 2018

This article was put together by someone who doesn’t have the most elementary understanding of statistics. A bit horrifying how this media organizatation is analyzing and disseminating this. Those with a similar understanding of statistics will simply buy in.

You are spot on with what you say. It’s who things like this are directed at.

Demsrule86

(68,582 posts)
8. Yep, I always look at internals.
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 08:14 AM
Apr 2018

Also, I would not report a poll that was within the margin of error as fact.

Demsrule86

(68,582 posts)
25. I don't doubt that. I think the House is more difficult than people think with the gerrymander...it
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 08:27 PM
Apr 2018

will be a tough slog, but I just think this poll is garbage. The results are within the margin of error and too many landline which means older voters...also not likely voters polled either. There was about 1000 people sampled...that alone makes it questionable.

Demsrule86

(68,582 posts)
6. They interviews about a 1000 people...65% who are landline only ...
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 08:01 AM
Apr 2018

the margin of error is 3.5 points thus 'decline' is within the margin of error...there is likely no change at all since March. How nice of you to report yesterday that Trump's number rebounded (I disagree looking at more than one poll). And now today, an OP showing the Democratic chances to take back congress have declined...I don't think so. and what a demoralizing post...again the margin for error is 3.5, thus these results are within the margin of error.

mrsv

(209 posts)
9. If American voters...
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 08:17 AM
Apr 2018

Would vote republican after seeing this shit show....then America deserves all the shit coming its way!!!

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
21. The upcoming midterm elections are critical
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 01:56 PM
Apr 2018

Let's work together and do everything we can to ensure Democratic victories across the board.

Can I get an Amen?

Squinch

(50,953 posts)
23. And that means posting every outlier poll with bad news
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 03:46 PM
Apr 2018

for democrats while ignoring those in the same articlewith good news? Kay.

Saboburns

(2,807 posts)
13. What I find is that I have not seen this poll in two years.
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 09:49 AM
Apr 2018

But the first time it had bad news for us I get to read about it in 4 different posts as well as see it on splashed all over a a morning news show.

W wonder why that is?

Squinch

(50,953 posts)
15. Why look at that! Dems chance of taking both houses went UP!
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 01:25 PM
Apr 2018

Funny how these OPs only ever mention the bad polls. What could that ever mean??

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
17. Yeah - but if nothing else, a little extra motivation for us to work hard in the midterms
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 01:47 PM
Apr 2018

And to take nothing for granted.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
19. No joke - we got work to do
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 01:49 PM
Apr 2018

Volunteer for your local Democratic candidate and help in any way you can!

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
24. Who is arguing otherwise?
Mon Apr 16, 2018, 04:05 PM
Apr 2018

"Volunteer for your local Democratic candidate and help in any way you can!"

Who within the thread is arguing otherwise or doesn't already know this?

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»2018 vote margin narrows ...