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blake2012

(1,294 posts)
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 11:45 PM Apr 2018

Our last three successful Dem presidential candidates had one thing in common

Two years prior to their successful run, they were on no one’s radar as a credible nominee let alone actually winning the White House.

The last three unsuccessful nominees were considered foregone conclusions and had very long public records for people to run against.

Which hopefuls for 2020 fit into the former and latter categories?

And yes I do realize the last three unsuccessful Dem nominees were jobbed in some way with two of the three winning popular vote but losing electoral.

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Our last three successful Dem presidential candidates had one thing in common (Original Post) blake2012 Apr 2018 OP
Hillary Clinton is a WINNER. She won the election. The conspiracy stole the Electoral College. nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2018 #1
I was in process of editing caveats in that regard blake2012 Apr 2018 #2
She was about to win the EC in a landslide when Comey stole the election and handed it to Trump. StevieM Apr 2018 #16
No. Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2018 #23
So did Al Gore until SCOTUS changed it... dajoki Apr 2018 #38
Six of the last seven presidents ran as outsiders marylandblue Apr 2018 #3
Yes. People want change other than when an incumbent is running blake2012 Apr 2018 #5
Biden, Warren, and probably now Sanders fall into the second. TDale313 Apr 2018 #4
Im thinking somebody like beto could be our dark horse candidate Tiggeroshii Apr 2018 #15
TAMMY DUCKWORTH!!! Squinch Apr 2018 #6
Very inspiring choice blake2012 Apr 2018 #7
I Wouldn't Say John Kerry Was A Foregone Conclusion ChoppinBroccoli Apr 2018 #8
December 2003 was a heady time for people who knew Howard DFW Apr 2018 #10
I was a Deaniac Cha Apr 2018 #20
I never met Kerry DFW Apr 2018 #21
Way Cool! Cha Apr 2018 #22
This was last October DFW Apr 2018 #25
Wonderful! Mahalo for that pic, DFW.. you Cha Apr 2018 #43
I Absolutely Loved Howard ChoppinBroccoli Apr 2018 #27
They all won after eight or more years of Republican rule. People wanted change. betsuni Apr 2018 #9
I think people will want some governing and political experiencebut not wizened veterans of DC blake2012 Apr 2018 #12
Do you know what that means? ecstatic Apr 2018 #11
Nothe opposition does that more than Dems blake2012 Apr 2018 #13
Here ya go leftstreet Apr 2018 #14
My First Choice PaulX2 Apr 2018 #19
I like this guy blake2012 Apr 2018 #31
Kamala Harris, Liberty Belle Apr 2018 #17
I like Tom Steyer. (eom) StevieM Apr 2018 #18
Clinton, Kerry, and Gore were successful Dem presidential candidates. milestogo Apr 2018 #24
EXACTLY. Ohiogal Apr 2018 #26
This. TheSmarterDog Apr 2018 #29
You Do Realize.......... ChoppinBroccoli Apr 2018 #30
I am a liberal/centrist Democrat blake2012 Apr 2018 #34
Obama was being talked about over four years before he ran. NCTraveler Apr 2018 #28
That may be. But few were discussing them as serious candidates blake2012 Apr 2018 #32
"That may be." NCTraveler Apr 2018 #37
One thing we tend to forget--the nation wasn't always in election mode in 1990's blake2012 Apr 2018 #39
If you are considering Carter a success, I cannot agree. He failed to strike a deal and get Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #33
He won and was in the White House blake2012 Apr 2018 #35
You have a point...he did win. He wasn't good at Washington politics. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #36
Was Obama better than Carter at Washington politics? oberliner Apr 2018 #41
Barack Obama gave the keynote speech at the 2004 DNC convention oberliner Apr 2018 #40
Radaryes. But as a bright, refreshing young politician that was a rising star blake2012 Apr 2018 #42
From CNN, November 2, 2006: "Poll: Obama now trails only Clinton on '08 list" oberliner Apr 2018 #44
Yep. He still heavily trailed presumptive nominee, Hillary at that point blake2012 Apr 2018 #45

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
16. She was about to win the EC in a landslide when Comey stole the election and handed it to Trump.
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 03:09 AM
Apr 2018

Actually, Comey dominated the election from start to finish.

dajoki

(10,678 posts)
38. So did Al Gore until SCOTUS changed it...
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:50 AM
Apr 2018

the last time a r won the popular vote for 1st term was 1988. And 2004 was questionable.

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
4. Biden, Warren, and probably now Sanders fall into the second.
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 11:49 PM
Apr 2018

Kamala Harris, and maybe Joe Kennedy III are in the former.

ChoppinBroccoli

(3,784 posts)
8. I Wouldn't Say John Kerry Was A Foregone Conclusion
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 12:45 AM
Apr 2018

As late as Christmas 2003, it was still a "foregone conclusion" that Howard Dean would be the nominee. It wasn't until a couple of months later when John Kerry shocked everyone and won Iowa that he became the presumptive nominee.

And by the way, I think the whole "people want an outsider who's not part of the Washington Insiders" wisdom is going to be turned on its head in 2020. We HAVE an outsider without ANY experience in office right now, and the people HATE it. This time around, they're going to be looking for someone who knows what the job entails and who can hit the ground running. They're going to be looking for stability; a steady hand. Someone who has a record of success.

DFW

(54,379 posts)
10. December 2003 was a heady time for people who knew Howard
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 01:39 AM
Apr 2018

Even though later on, he would tell (even today) anyone that asked "we didn't know what the hell we were doing."

But back then, it was amazing. This guy I had met at a dinner table just 2 years before, and talked guitar as much as politics (Howard and I are both Leo Kottke fans) suddenly has a team of Secret Service surrounding him and has to run to catch his own plane. He was on the cover of both Time and Newsweek at the same time. It didn't last long, and it took him a while to adjust, but when he won the post of DNC chair, he really hit his stride and never looked back. He wasn't really interested in trying again, although he did say that if neither Hillary nor Biden had tried in 2016, he might have been tempted. It wouldn't have lasted, though, as Judy would have had him chained to the breakfast table rather than go through it all again.

Cha

(297,237 posts)
20. I was a Deaniac
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 03:29 AM
Apr 2018

because he was against the war on Iraq.. and I liked him.

I went to meet-ups in upper state NY and met a lot of really nice people.

When Kerry got the nom.. it took me about a week to get on board and then I was gung ho!

My sis and I drove to Manchester, NH to see him on Nov 2nd I think, where about 15, 000 other supporters showed up.. I didn't even get to see him in person.

I don't think they were expecting that many and the stage was too short.

DFW

(54,379 posts)
21. I never met Kerry
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 04:07 AM
Apr 2018

Our paths just never crossed.

Howard remains a personal friend to this day, of course, just spoke to him last week.

DFW

(54,379 posts)
25. This was last October
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 08:46 AM
Apr 2018

Howard was on a speaking tour of northern Germany, and we had dinner with the mayor of Düsseldorf

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

ChoppinBroccoli

(3,784 posts)
27. I Absolutely Loved Howard
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:14 AM
Apr 2018

In a lot of ways, he is still one of my political heroes. He is one of the first politicians to really inspire me, and he caused me to become an active participant rather than just an enthusiast who watched from the sidelines. I jumped on his bandwagon early, and when he lost Iowa, I couldn't believe it. When he eventually dropped out of the race, I was devastated, but I eventually threw my support 100% behind John Kerry. I literally went to a John Kerry rally days after Howard dropped out and told all his supporters to get behind Kerry (I actually got John to sign a copy of his book for me and got to talk to him briefly at that rally, which was really cool).

About a week before the election, I finally got a chance to meet Howard. He was at a book signing here in town, so I stood in line for him to sign my copy of his book. I only got to speak to him briefly, but he was super nice to me. I have pictures from that event on my computer, but I don't know how to post them here.

The DNC was at its strongest under his leadership. I wish we had someone like him running things now.

betsuni

(25,524 posts)
9. They all won after eight or more years of Republican rule. People wanted change.
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 01:24 AM
Apr 2018

And those administrations were tainted by scandals and war and bad economies. Our last Dem nominee had no such advantage, no matter who they might have been.

 

blake2012

(1,294 posts)
12. I think people will want some governing and political experiencebut not wizened veterans of DC
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 01:54 AM
Apr 2018

Which is why I agree with others it shouldn’t and won’t be Biden, Bernie or Warren.

ecstatic

(32,704 posts)
11. Do you know what that means?
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 01:45 AM
Apr 2018

It means we overanalyze and critique candidates until they're completely unelectable. Which means, this thread isn't a great idea. 2 years or less time means we don't have the opportunity to rip a great candidate apart.

 

blake2012

(1,294 posts)
13. Nothe opposition does that more than Dems
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 01:56 AM
Apr 2018

I do think we’ll need a person in their 40’s or 50’s who’s either a relatively unknown governor or very new Senator.

leftstreet

(36,108 posts)
14. Here ya go
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 02:33 AM
Apr 2018



Jay Robert Inslee (/ˈɪnzliː/; born February 9, 1951) is an American politician, author, and attorney serving as the 23rd and current Governor of Washington since January 2013. He is a member of the Democratic Party.


Although he is 67, a little over the 40s-50s

Liberty Belle

(9,535 posts)
17. Kamala Harris,
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 03:10 AM
Apr 2018

California's new Senator and former Calif. Attorney General and sits on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

ChoppinBroccoli

(3,784 posts)
30. You Do Realize..........
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:26 AM
Apr 2018

............that the Republicans haven't LEGITIMATELY won a Presidential election in 30 years, right? This is the thought that keeps coming back to me every time I hear hand-wringing Democrats declare that we need to make wholesale changes to our political philosophy or do this or do that in order to "keep up" with the Republicans. If you have to cheat to win, your philosophy is no good to begin with. We need to stop blaming ourselves and get to work changing the rules that allow them to cheat these elections.

Case in point: Wisconsin. Immediately after the election was over, we went into self-blaming mode, talking about how we could have "better reached Wisconsin voters," or how Hillary should have spent more time campaigning there, or how we could have changed our message, or whatever. Now it comes out that even Republicans have admitted that it was the voter suppression that swung Wisconsin.

I realize that introspection and self-blaming is kind of what we do as a Party, but we need to stop all that and start figuring out how to prevent these treasonous A-holes from STEALING elections. And it needs to start the MINUTE we take back the Congress in November. When we were in control in 2008, we were content to sit on our hands and in-fight about the perfect way to do things while getting nothing done. That can't happen this time around. Screw the appearance of bipartisanship and ram through an agenda that will ACTUALLY improve things. They certainly have no problem doing it to us for laws that make things WORSE.

 

blake2012

(1,294 posts)
34. I am a liberal/centrist Democrat
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:30 AM
Apr 2018

I stated clearly the situation around those candidates. The fact is—they weren’t in the WH and the others were. The reason it was close enough that Republicans could cheat is they were seen as more of the same Washington insider yards yada.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
28. Obama was being talked about over four years before he ran.
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:20 AM
Apr 2018

You can easily search and find news articles about it.

Conversations about Clinton were being held in the mid eighties.

 

blake2012

(1,294 posts)
32. That may be. But few were discussing them as serious candidates
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:28 AM
Apr 2018

They both were known for their oratorical skills but not widely known by Americans.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
37. "That may be."
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:37 AM
Apr 2018

Yes, they were being discussed as serious candidates during the time-frames I referenced.

"They both were known for their oratorical skills"

They were both well accomplished at that point.

 

blake2012

(1,294 posts)
39. One thing we tend to forget--the nation wasn't always in election mode in 1990's
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 01:24 PM
Apr 2018

Here's NYT on 1990 midterm elections:

https://www.nytimes.com/1990/11/07/us/1990-elections-nation-democrats-retain-grip-congress-take-top-posts-texas.html

Quite a trip down memory lane with guys like Bill Bradley, Mario Cuomo and Jesse Helms.

Cuomo was the only one who was a strong contender in 1992 who made it into this article. It focused on midterms themselves whereas most articles today would already be casting forward to the next presidential campaign.

I can guarantee you the majority of news outlets weren't discussing Bill Clinton and Barack Obama as candidates for president two years prior to their presidential election bids.

Demsrule86

(68,576 posts)
33. If you are considering Carter a success, I cannot agree. He failed to strike a deal and get
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:30 AM
Apr 2018

a really good healthcare plan with a Democratic Congress. This was before most healthcare companies were made for profit and our best chance to get a really good plan passed. He completely missed the boat on Iran and helped keep an unpopular dictator in power...which we paid a heavy price for. He did make the only lasting peace agreement in the middle east...between Israel and Egypt. So kudos for that. But, he paved the way for Reagan. While he was a decent man, I don't consider him a successful president.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
40. Barack Obama gave the keynote speech at the 2004 DNC convention
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 01:29 PM
Apr 2018

He was on everybody's radar after that.

 

blake2012

(1,294 posts)
42. Radaryes. But as a bright, refreshing young politician that was a rising star
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 05:30 PM
Apr 2018

Not as someone who would run in the next Presidential in 2008. At that point he was not even been elected as US Senator.

Only when he announced his run in Feb 2007 did people start to see him as going for it. Even then, most money was on Hillary or Biden. Others were encouraging Kerry, Gore, and Dean to try again. Even Edwards had more airplay as a potential nominee over 2 years prior to Nov 2008. Not Obama.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
44. From CNN, November 2, 2006: "Poll: Obama now trails only Clinton on '08 list"
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 07:22 PM
Apr 2018
Poll: Obama now trails only Clinton on '08 list
POSTED: 8:38 a.m. EST, November 2, 2006

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who has recently said he is considering a bid for his party's presidential nomination, now trails only Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton on list of potential Democratic candidates in 2008, according to a new CNN poll released Wednesday.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona is running neck and neck with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani among Republicans, the poll found.

Obama gets support from 17 percent of registered Democrats, vaulting him into second place, ahead of former Vice President Al Gore, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, according to the poll.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/01/poll.2008/
 

blake2012

(1,294 posts)
45. Yep. He still heavily trailed presumptive nominee, Hillary at that point
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 07:50 PM
Apr 2018

As I said, he had not separated himself from the pack even by October/November and he hadn’t even announced. That would come the following Feb.

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