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brooklynite

(94,571 posts)
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 10:51 AM Apr 2018

COOK POLITICAL: 7 more House Races shift towards Democrats

Speaker Paul Ryan's retirement plans could complicate the House GOP's fundraising math. In 2017, Ryan's joint fundraising committee brought in $44 million and transferred $32 million to the NRCC. His exit could leave GOP donors skittish. But even before last week, Democratic donors had been demonstrating far more enthusiasm on a race-by-race basis, a fact reflected in the newest House fundraising reports.

The newest FEC filings spell danger for Republicans. In the most recent fundraising period, Democrats outraised Republicans in at least 60 GOP-held seats, more than twice the 23 seats Democrats need for a majority. Meanwhile, the reverse is true in just five Democratic-held seats. That's going to force the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund to bail out a lot of cash-strapped GOP candidates come the fall.

Ratings Changes:
AZ-08: VACANT (Franks) | Solid R to Likely R
AR-02: Hill | Likely R to Lean R
IL-14: Hultgren | Likely R to Lean R
MI-01: Bergman | Solid R to Likely R
OH-14: Joyce | Solid R to Likely R
SC-05: Norman | Solid R to Likely R
VA-05: Garrett | Likely R to Lean R

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/new-house-fec-reports-rating-changes-7-districts

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COOK POLITICAL: 7 more House Races shift towards Democrats (Original Post) brooklynite Apr 2018 OP
the bottom line is with GOP donors who believe supporting a gop candidate will be a waste of money beachbum bob Apr 2018 #1
Thanks for posting. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2018 #2
K&R Scurrilous Apr 2018 #3
According to this Cook report, it doesn't give me much confidence. YOHABLO Apr 2018 #4
Confidence in what? brooklynite Apr 2018 #5
Shifting to "Likely R" is not all that exciting oberliner Apr 2018 #6
What if I told you... brooklynite Apr 2018 #7
Then there is some hope oberliner Apr 2018 #8
It's great to see you posting good news for Democrats IronLionZion Apr 2018 #9
 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
1. the bottom line is with GOP donors who believe supporting a gop candidate will be a waste of money
Wed Apr 18, 2018, 11:20 AM
Apr 2018

and will either not contribute OR support the democrat to have some access. The "K Street" crowd is about access and they can read the tea leaves and see the coming blue tidal wave. Koch Money alone will not win much for the GOP...its the other big money and PACS....influence and access is way more important than ideology when it comes down to it.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
6. Shifting to "Likely R" is not all that exciting
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 05:02 PM
Apr 2018

Losing 5-2 is not really any different than losing 10-1.

brooklynite

(94,571 posts)
7. What if I told you...
Sat Apr 21, 2018, 01:04 AM
Apr 2018

...that in 7 of the "Likely R" races, the leading Democrat outraised the Republican incumbent.

The fact that more seats are moving out the "Solid R" category shows forward momentum.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
8. Then there is some hope
Sat Apr 21, 2018, 05:36 AM
Apr 2018

I admire your optimism. The 2016 election results drained a lot of that from me.

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