Aluminum Sanctions Convulse Market as Rally to $3,000 Forecast (Screw Ford and the F-150)

Aluminum surged to a six-year high as the impact of U.S. sanctions against United Co. Rusal continued to reverberate through the global market more than a week after they were announced, with buyers rushing to secure supplies amid forecasts that the price may hit $3,000 a metric ton.

The metal, used to make everything from cans and cars to airplanes, reversed an early drop to gain as much as 1.5 percent to $2,435 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, the highest intraday price since September 2011. It traded at $2,429 at 7:52 a.m. in London, extending Monday’s 5 percent jump.

The aluminum market is in turmoil following the U.S. action against Russia’s Rusal, which has unleashed a supply shock that’s still unfolding as the company accounts for about 17 percent of worldwide production outside China. The Russian supplier has been shut out of the Western financial system, lacerating its share price while boosting rivals. Rio Tinto Group, South32 Ltd. and Alumina Ltd. are among the potential beneficiaries, according to UBS Group AG.

“The market is looking at $2,800, $3,000,” Jackie Wang, an analyst at CRU Group, said from Beijing. There are concerns about possible production cuts by Rusal, either because its sales are blocked or the raw material supply chain is affected, according to Wang. LME prices last topped $3,000 in 2008.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/aluminum-market-convulsed-by-sanctions-as-price-near-2011-high

Ford switched from steel to aluminum for much of the F-150 pickup structure in order to meet fuel economy requirements. Embargoing Russian aluminum and raising the price is going to make that a bad decision.