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misanthrope

(7,418 posts)
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 06:31 PM Apr 2018

WaPo: North Korea announcing the cessation of all nuclear activities

They claim to be halting missile and nuclear tests and closing testing site. This is less than a week prior to a meeting between Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in as a precursor to a meeting between Kim and Trump.

This makes zero sense. Why would a nation that has long been moving toward a goal, spent numerous resources on it and recently moved closer there than ever suddenly claim to be giving up altogether before a summit with no visible reciprocity? Normally there's a give and take, with each side making concessions. This has none of that. North Korea has received nothing and instead cedes all their bargaining chips prior to the meeting.

Either this is all a ruse and they are actually giving up nothing, or North Korea will attempt to use these proclaimed plans as a way to ask for something. I think the latter is the more likely. They are merely suspending activity until the summit to see what happens.

Otherwise something about this doesn't add up.

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misanthrope

(7,418 posts)
3. That's my thought
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 06:37 PM
Apr 2018

They have it all dormant and can gear back up with a quick notice. This is little more than N. Korean p.r. which Mango Mussolini will use as a feather in his cap until the summit.

misanthrope

(7,418 posts)
4. Possibly
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 06:40 PM
Apr 2018

I think they have some powerful missiles and warheads. I think plenty of nations in the Pacific Basin should be wary.

That said, I think it's likely ICBM guidance is more difficult than many realize, especially at distances on the other side of the ocean.

longship

(40,416 posts)
16. My thinking is that the DPRK has zero nuclear warheads.
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 08:12 PM
Apr 2018

And certainly zero that are weaponized for delivery via missiles, intercontinental or otherwise.

My thinking is that they do not even have a reliable missile of any range, let alone an ICBM.

See my post below as to why I think that they also do not have a reliable nuclear weapon. Their nuke bag is empty.

These are not things that can be hidden from the scientists. We have plenty of measurements to reveal the truth.

Mister Kim is holding a losing hand, and he knows it. All one needs to do is call his bluff and he has no choice but to fold.

anneboleyn

(5,611 posts)
6. It takes the wind out of Trumps sails as it makes his meeting irrelevant
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 06:44 PM
Apr 2018

Of course Trump and co will try to take credit for this move as they try to claim everything but I think it will be clear to many that this has to do with North Korea meeting with South Korea. I think it also makes a future meeting between Trump and North Korea most irrelevant.

marble falls

(57,106 posts)
9. The cost of nuclear weapons has more to do with this than cheetolini. At some point that the Kims...
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 06:55 PM
Apr 2018

will go the way of Nicolae Ceaușescu when North Koreans realize how fucked they've been.

longship

(40,416 posts)
10. Because their nuke program is in big, big trouble.
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 06:55 PM
Apr 2018

My conjecture...

The so-called last underground test utterly destroyed their underground test facilities to the point that there was no way to repair it. The tested nuke ran away and just fucked the whole thing up. The DPRK currently has little or no infrastructure by which to continue and little to no resources to rebuild.

After all, it was a dodgy adventure from the get go. The first tests were pretty much all fizzles, way below nuclear yields. My thinking is that they had no idea about constructing a functional initiator. They weren't happy with their low yield fizzles, so they made a really big bomb, and when their initiator design finally worked, it blew up their test facilities.

Or something like that. Anyway one looks at it, their nuke program looks like it's fucked.

And the scientists know about it all. These are things that cannot be hidden.



 

B2G

(9,766 posts)
12. Agree.
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 07:05 PM
Apr 2018

There was a huge explosion that was detected awhile back.

Weapons facilities went boom.

hunter

(38,317 posts)
13. Maybe North Korea's big ass fusion bomb worked too well and destroyed their test site.
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 07:07 PM
Apr 2018

The U.S.A. Castle Bravo test in 1954 was two and a half times larger than predicted and made a huge radioactive mess.

I can well imagine North Korea suffering a similar accident after previous bombs had merely fizzled.

.

.

.

Nah, it's all bullshit, our posturing idiot vs. their posturing idiot.

WhiskeyGrinder

(22,357 posts)
15. They've reached their goal: They've brought the U.S. to the bargaining table, and are able to
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 08:09 PM
Apr 2018

give something to Trump that makes him think he's winning. Because that's apparently important. But NK has walked away from agreements in the past and even if they get everything they ask for, it's not like they're going to "forget" the gains they've made. And after reaching their goal anything else is gravy.

WhiskeyGrinder

(22,357 posts)
17. I'm mean, these concessions are pretty small. Anyone who pays attention to arms control and
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 08:14 PM
Apr 2018

arms-related diplomacy sees what's going on here: Trump's getting outmaneuvered. As usual.

tarheelsunc

(2,117 posts)
18. Because Putin controls both Trump and Kim
Fri Apr 20, 2018, 08:18 PM
Apr 2018

Putin is directing Kim. Just watch, Kim is going to completely capitulate to Trump so that Trump will be given credit for ending the rogue NK regime.

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