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RandySF

(58,911 posts)
Fri May 25, 2018, 10:09 AM May 2018

CALIFORNIA PRIMARY: "Unlikely" that Dems will be shut out of congressional races

Mitchell is a Democrat but his clients include both the California Democratic and Republican parties. He thinks the likelihood of Democrats getting locked out in any particular district remains low — but says there’s a good chance they’ll blow one race, a costly mistake in a year where every seat counts as Democrats try to win back the House majority.

“I believe it’s an unlikely event for this to happen in any one district but if you take five unlikely events you end up with one fairly likely event,” he told TPM.

Democrats are doing everything they can to avoid that situation, pouring millions of dollars into a number of districts to tear down some Republicans and boost some Democrats. Republicans have been surprisingly quiet in those races, considering how with some effort now they could guarantee victory in a few key House battles — as well as save themselves a lot of money down the line (though there have been some last-minute efforts by GOP outside groups).



https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/want-to-know-if-dems-will-get-skunked-in-california-watch-the-early-vote

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CALIFORNIA PRIMARY: "Unlikely" that Dems will be shut out of congressional races (Original Post) RandySF May 2018 OP
game theory unblock May 2018 #1
But Republicans will be locked out of many. JayhawkSD May 2018 #2
The biggest problem we have in California is our God awful semi-open primary system. There are still_one May 2018 #3

unblock

(52,253 posts)
1. game theory
Fri May 25, 2018, 10:17 AM
May 2018

democrats are at a big disadvantage trying to figure out where to spend money, in which districts, to back which democratic candidates or to trash which republican candidates.

republicans do their best to hold off committing much at all while democrats play defense. republicans can then pour a ton of money into one or two districts late in the race when democrats are more depleted.

unfortunately, democrats don't have a good counter to this other than raising a ton of money.

 

JayhawkSD

(3,163 posts)
2. But Republicans will be locked out of many.
Fri May 25, 2018, 10:34 AM
May 2018

Which is okay and, in fact is a highly desirable state of affairs.

I am a Democrat, but I still think that elections should be fair. Having two Democrats on the ballot for US Senate last election was a travesty. That was not a proper exercise of the democratic process.

A state decides to allocate its electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. Why not just scrap the constitution altogether? If you think it needs amendment, then work to have it amended, but to take these circuitous routes to have the coastal states render the "fly over" states impotent is not democracy in the form that our constitution defined it.

If we are no longer a federal republic then let's have the courage to declare that we are no longer a federal republic and change our constitution to reflect that. If we are seeking a one party nation, then let's have the courage to admit that we seek a one party nation and amend the constitution to reflect that status as well.

still_one

(92,219 posts)
3. The biggest problem we have in California is our God awful semi-open primary system. There are
Fri May 25, 2018, 10:42 AM
May 2018

over 20 candidates running for Governor and Senate respectively.

It is a confusing ballot, and not only has the potential to contribute to mistakes when people vote, but effectively allows those who are NOT affiliated with a political party, to vote for who should lead that party. It is bullshit.

Democrats should choose who they want to represent them in the general election, not someone who refuses to be a Democrat

This was implemented through our initiative process in 2011, and I have no doubt we will eventually get burned by this, like what happened in Illinois where Lipinski defeated the progressive Democrat Newman because of republican cross overs

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