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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDemocrats Are Blaming A Big-Spending Candidate For A Potential Disaster In California
National operatives are increasingly worried no Democrat will advance to the general election in a key U.S. House district in Southern California, blaming a self-funding candidates attacks on other Democrats for a potential disaster that could harm the partys chances of winning the U.S. House.
Democratic operatives are pointing fingers at Paul Kerr, a Navy veteran and businessman, ahead of the primary vote on Tuesday. Kerr has spent over $5 million of his own money on the race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa in San Diego County. Despite the heavy spending, he was running fourth among Democrats in two polls of the district released this week, one from the San Diego Union-Tribune and the other from the Democratic firm Tulchin Research.
The problem comes from Californias top-two primary system, where the two leading vote getters in the primary advance to the general election regardless of which party they belong to. While Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won the 49th District by 7 percentage points in 2016, national operatives now fear a four-way split of Democratic votes could lead to two Republicans advancing to the general election.
There are two additional districts where Democrats fear they could be blocked from the November ballot ― the adjacent 48th District, represented by pro-Russia Republican Dana Rohrabacher, and the nearby 39th District, where GOP Rep. Ed Royce is retiring. All three districts are considered toss-ups in November.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/paul-kerr-democrats-california_us_5b12c1a9e4b0d5e89e200a8d?ncid=edlinkushpmg00000313
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)if I recall. Would be disappointing if we couldn't flip this one
stuffmatters
(2,574 posts)Ca 49 has an enormous military, veteran presence. The District not only includes Marine Camp Pendleton but so many retired military and defense contractors & all their families in North San Diego and Southern Orange County. Issa always considered that vote his "safety net." Yet Col Applegate was more respected (a Marine Col with combat chops) more active (at Pendleton)) with the military community here, plus a very straight talking progressive messenger ; he crumbled Issa's most reliable voting block.
Chavez(R) is the only other candidate in contention besides Applegate who has this important military support. And it looks like the DCCC ads against Chavez will take him out of the race tomorrow. I cannot see Harkey, the predicted R winner,or either of the two Dems, in contention with Applegate for 2nd place, having appeal to military voters. None have military experience or cred equal to Chavez or Applegate.
I believe this military vote is going to be crucial for winning Ca49 in Nov. What Issa lost to Applegate in 2016 is this constituency that Democrats need to win Ca49th in Nov. I'm looking at the long game here.