That may explain why Nixon is doing so poorly

538 gives them an A grade.

If my predictions were that accurate I'd move to Vegas.

He could chew trump up and spit him out.

Four years ago, Zephyr Teachout, campaigning on opposition to fracking among other issues, lost the Democratic primary to Cuomo by a similar margin. She was never a threat to win. Nevertheless, she ran a surprisingly strong race for someone who began with no name recognition and who had very little money with which to get her message to the voters. (The cowardly Cuomo refused to debate her.) Nevertheless, she got more than a third of the vote. She carried a couple dozen less-urbanized counties; although she was generally perceived as being to Cuomo's left, many voters in these rural areas were up in arms about fracking.

Cuomo was renominated and re-elected. A month after the election, he made a major change in course, announcing a ban on fracking.

No one can prove that Teachout's unexpectedly strong showing was a factor in Cuomo's about-face. All we know for sure is that many people believe it was a factor. Teachout had no chance of winning but her candidacy wasn't quixotic. At least one windmill actually fell over. With three months yet to go before the Cuomo-Nixon primary, it's too soon to dismiss her candidacy just because we all know she won't win.

One of the lowest turnouts in NY history.

The question is not whether Teachout had overwhelming support from millions of New Yorkers. The question is whether her candidacy, despite not securing her the nomination, accomplished something. It did.

Also, we haven't addressed the Working Families Party aspect. The WFP almost always cross-endorses the Democratic nominee for various offices. In 2014, progressive discontent with Cuomo was strong enough that there was significant support within the WFP to give its general-election ballot line to Teachout. In response, Cuomo narrowly headed off that nomination by making various promises that he then broke.

This year, it's possible that the WFP, for the first time in its history, will decline to cross-endorse the Democratic nominee for Governor. Cuomo will probably be strong enough against the Republican that he could win even if Nixon on the WFP line is drawing off some protest votes in November. He'd rather not test that prediction, though.

The Nixon candidacy gives the WFP a credible threat with which to push Cuomo to the left. Under New York's election laws, a minor party has a particularly strong incentive to cross-endorse in the race for this one office -- Governor -- because the party needs 50,000 votes for Governor on its line to maintain automatic ballot status for the next four years. Nixon, with her name recognition, could probably get the 50,000 votes even running against Cuomo. If instead the only opposition to Cuomo were some totally unknown random progressive, then the WFP would have to be very hesitant about nominating that person, and Cuomo would know that the WFP would have to be hesitant.

At this point, the WFP has endorsed Nixon but has not nominated her -- an important distinction. The threat of such a nomination may induce Cuomo to make some substantive concessions. In that case, even before a single vote is counted, Nixon's candidacy will have proved to be more than merely "quixotic".

guaranteeing she will be on the November ballot unless she opts to not be included on the GE ballot. Polling shows Cuomo leading in a three way race, but I would hope that Cynthia Nixon would not opt to go this route.

The WFP in New York state is very active and very good at getting out the vote. The reason I brought up the low turnout is that Teachout would have lost by even more if it was not for the WFP GOTV efforts.

As a lifelong New York State resident, I'm very aware of the long anti-fracking debate. My oldest, now adult, child was very involved in activism while a college student in a proposed fracking area.

Teachout did a great job of putting a focus on the debate, but Cuomo was simply waiting for the Health Commission to complete it's review, which was completed in December of 2014.