Stuart Rothenberg: The House Blue Wave Is Alive and Well

For the last couple of months, I’ve heard from many quarters that the “blue wave” has dissipated. Meh.

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In fact, there is an abundance of evidence that Democratic House prospects are as good as they have been for months and the House is still very likely to flip.

Often, a healthy dose of common sense is more useful than a single misleading public opinion survey. Less than two months ago, I wrote “It seems very unlikely that there has been a fundamental shift in sentiment (in the generic ballot) among registered voters,” and “If I were you, I’d wait for the next round of generic ballot tests from the major pollsters before getting too excited about the most recent [Washington Post-ABC News] generic ballot result,” which showed a dramatically narrower 4-point Democratic advantage.

Two months earlier, on Feb. 12, my column — “The Generic is Falling! The Generic is Falling!” — had expressed skepticism that things had changed much and estimated that “the generic ballot probably now sits in the mid-single digits, in the 5- to 8-point range,” which I thought put the fall campaign on a trajectory toward Democratic control of the House.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/analysis-house-blue-wave-alive-well