Map of Governor's Races Favors Democrats

Republicans are defending 26 seats, including a number in blue and purple states. They go into the general election with one seat – the open seat in New Mexico – in the Lean Democrat column. Republican Gov. Susanna Martinez is unpopular, and Republican nominee U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce does not have a great track record in statewide races, having lost U.S. Senate contests in 2000 and 2008. He is the only Republican in the state’s congressional delegation, and as a member of the Freedom Caucus, he is likely too conservative and controversial to win a statewide contest this year.

There are seven seats in the Toss Up column, including incumbent Govs. Bruce Rauner in Illinois and Kim Reynolds in Iowa. Rauner is easily the most vulnerable incumbent of either party, but his significant personal resources make it hard to put him in the Lean Democrat column, at least for now. Reynolds is running for a term in her own right after becoming Governor when Terry Branstad resigned to become Ambassador to China. She will face Fred Hubbell, former president of Equitable Iowa and former Acting Director of the Department of Economic Development under Democratic Gov. Chet Culver. Hubbell easily won a crowded primary, outperforming expectations. This contest has moved to the Toss Up column.

The other five contests are in open seats in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio. In Florida, both parties are hosting competitive primaries. There isn’t a real frontrunner on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is the frontrunner, but he is getting a challenge to his right from U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis. Putnam would be a very competitive nominee, while the race gets harder for the GOP if DeSantis, a member of the Freedom Caucus, is the party’s standard-bearer.

Maine will host a three-way contest. Shawn Moody, who ran for Governor in 2010 as an independent and finished fourth, won the GOP primary. As a result of the state’s ranked-choice primary system, it’s not clear yet whether businessman Adam Cote or Attorney General Janet Mills will be the Democratic nominee. There are several independent candidates running, but state Treasurer Terry Hayes seems likely to get the most traction.

In the open seat in Ohio, Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine will face off against Democrat Richard Cordray, former head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. There are three recent polls: one shows DeWine up by six points, another has Cordray up by two points and the third has Cordray up by seven points. It is extremely unlikely that Cordray is up by seven points and he may not even be ahead by two points, but the takeaway from these surveys is that this race is within the margin of error. As a result it has moved to the Toss Up column.

Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin is in the Lean Republican column, but Democrats are convinced that this race will ultimately be a toss up. Walker is seeking a third term, which is always difficult, but before Democrats can go head to head with Walker, they need a nominee. They are hosting a 10-way primary, and seven or eight of the candidates can make credible cases that they have a path to the nomination. Until the August 14 primary, Walker is left to raise money and fine-tune his organization.

There are five seats in the Likely Republican column — Govs. Doug Ducey in Arizona, Jeff Colyer in Kansas, Larry Hogan in Maryland, Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and the open seat in Tennessee. The Likely columns are essentially watch lists. The party is favored to hold a seat, but there are some circumstances present that make the race worth keeping an eye on. In Kansas, Colyer faces a primary challenge from controversial Secretary of State Kris Kobach. This race would get more difficult for Republicans if Kobach were the nominee. Another complication is the presence of independent candidate Greg Orman, a wealthy businessman who took 43 percent of the vote against GOP U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts in 2014. It’s unclear whether he pulls more votes from Democrats or Republicans, but he will be a factor in the race.

New Hampshire seems unusually vulnerable to electoral waves, which is reason enough to watch this race. At the same time, Sununu has solid job ratings and Democrats don’t have a first-tier candidate, although there seems to be growing enthusiasm for former state Sen. Molly Kelly. It doesn’t help that the primary isn’t until September 11. The race was in Lean Republican, but has moved to the Likely column. It’s up to Democrats to make it more competitive.



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