That's the peril of small samples . 90 Hispanics were polled. The margin of error for that subgroup is > 10%.

Here is a link to an ISPOS poll from roughly the same time period that Silver rates higher. His approval/disapproval rating among Hispanics is 27/65:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/smallest/filters/SC_RACE:5|6|7/dates/20180301-20180611/collapsed/true

Plus add to that they're talking about making more laws giving them the ability to criminalize , or challenge all minorities citizenship , and deport many others with it. All minorities should be scared what these people are capable of doing to them. He wants to ethnic cleanse this country except for affluent wealthy whites, and keeping the poor enslaved to them. Their immigration policy TRUMP and the GOP are behind I think will haunt them forever, and effect negatively elections in the future. Its inhumane and brutal , and child abuse.

Where are you seeing these signals?

The margins of error can be very large.

That said your analysis makes sense.

That's roughly the percentage of Hispanic votes Republican presidential candidates have been getting since Reagan with the exception of W. Trump's approval among Hispanics is around 30% or so, among African Americans its around 10% or so. Among whites he's about even. If there's room for movement I believe it will be there.

will probably have a good go at it, whether they were legal, born here or not.

their own spouse, even though he or she is a well-liked model member of the community, even a business owner providing jobs and contributing money and effort to civic causes.

Just a couple of days ago we read about the wife of a retired military Trumpster being up for deportation, and I linked to an article about the fact that many military spouses are being deported.

We can't forget the last Democrat to win a majority or plurality of the white vote was Lyndon Johnson, though Clinton came close to winning a plurality in 1992 I believe. Hillary was around 37 or 38%. We really need to get it over 40% in 2020.

Let's face it. If they would vote for Trump, they have their reasons.

Probably more than half would vote for ANY Republican, and they're unreachable (and that's fair-- it's a two-party system, and in that case, you need some loyal to the other party). Some might be quietly persuaded not to vote for Trump next time, just vote the downballot races (Can we all say a prayer that Trump never gets that far). But they're not going to vote for a Democrat.

But the ones who chose to vote for Trump specifically, his (not the GOP's) base-- the 30-35% who now love North Korea and hate Canada because Trump told them to- they're REALLY unreachable. They'd vote for him, as he said, if he murdered someone. They're supporting him when his policy is ripping a baby from his mother's breast, for god's sake.

I think that many of them will rapidly lose interest in politics when Trump is (we hope) indicted. They'll transition to more crazy conspiracy theories about how, you know, Scott Pruitt is really a Cylon created by the Democrats, and Nancy Pelosi has stolen Donnie Jr's magnificent sperm and is using it to breed humans with monkeys, and then they'll plot how to overthrow the government and restore Trump as dictator. They're going to be way too busy to vote for Pence or whatever patsy the GOP comes up with next.

The idea of trying to appeal to THEM-- well, nothing that will appeal to them will be within the realm of large-D or small-D Democratic values.
The Democratic base, however, is a large group, and strengthening that-- getting more "lean dems" to become "strong dems" -- Hispanics becoming more like African Americans, overwhelmingly and powerfully Democratic-- and perhaps pulling over some white suburban women (Go, Chesterfield County, VA Liberal Ladies!) who recognize that any party that would nominate that guy isn't for them... that's a much more likely and feasible way.

And if we're for the rights and interests of minorities, women, workers, and poor, even if the Trump voters continue to hate the "LibDems," they'll also benefit from a more prosperous and productive nation.

They don't have to vote Democratic to get the benefit of a Democratic victory. So let's not feel too bad ignoring them. They won't agree, but it's good for them.

I believe President Obama won 43% and 41% of the white vote is 08 and 012 and we won Electoral College landslides.

acquaintances, mixed white, mestizo, native, most citizens, some undocumented. They were predominantly conservative, some liberal, although in those days I didn't realize those both are basic personality orientations that play out in later political affiliations, so I never wondered who was conservative because of their mostly conservative heritage but actually liberal by nature.

In any case, the conservative citizen Hispanics I knew all opposed undocumented immigration and wanted it stopped. They brought the subject up the same as white conservatives did. I was struck again and again by expressions of resentment that they and undocumented Hispanics were viewed as much the same thing by others. And they resented undocumented Hispanics for it, seemingly MORE than they resented the attitude of white conservatives at least they spoke of the one to me and not the other. I believed these conservatives wanted acceptance and inclusion by the Republican Party.

They emphatically didn't get it and don't have it now, of course. We've lost touch, pre-internet connections lost through deaths, moving, remarrying, etc., and I often wonder how they all feel about this now.

But human nature and personality don't change, not that much. Conservative is always some variation of conservative under the skin. So those approval numbers for Trump were dismaying but not surprising. I'd hoped for more resistance to the white right to have developed, the kind we're seeing in the strong, monolithic black alliance, but again, not surprised.

Hispanic citizens have always known, of course, that undocumented Hispanics are viewed and abused as surrogates for themselves. Vulnerable Hispanic targets are abused in part as a way to insult and kick at far less vulnerable Hispanic citizens. This author's prediction of collapsing support may be right. Sure hope so. It's way past time for Hispanic Americans to smite their enemies, and they have the numbers to make it hurt bad.

That's what I dont understand. Do they somehow think if it came down a to a choice of them or a white person, their racial purity bullshit would not win out.

Rich, poor. status, position, they don't give a shit unless you are the right color or breed.

to all this, emphatically including ovens. As long as our democracy survives.

Hispanics are something like 17.8% of Americans now, blacks around 13.3%. Separately and together, those groups alone are a lot of voting power.

One thing we need to remember is that Jews were something like 1% of the German population. Most Germans didn't know any Jews. Another thing is that democracy was a brief, failed experiment, 12-15 years or so, in a ruined Germany during a time of great tribulation between wars; Germans voted for a return to the prosperity and pride they had under an authoritarian kaiser.

They could be there long enough to register to vote-- they are US Citizens and eligible to vote, right, as long as they're in a state? I really doubt many of them would vote for Trump or his successor.

BTW, this is what shows the danger of having a large population of citizens (millions!) who are not allowed to vote in the national election. Arguably the residents of PR are the ones most profoundly affected among citizens by the Trump administration's malign neglect of actual governing.

Just like some Whites that get food assistance, ACA subsidies, Medicaid, ect. In their minds, they are the deserving ones, their house will be marked and God will pass over them as God smite the undeserving. They are in for a rude awakening. Once the Nazis get rid of undocumented immigrants, they will come for documented Hispanics or African Americans next, but AA have clearly shown that they at least will put up a fight, politically and otherwise, so my guess, documented Hispanics start losing shit because many of them acquiesced when they should have fought.

are generally unsympathetic. It's probably because they are multiple generations removed from immigration, if there was immigration at all. Many in south Texas are Conservatives, saying things like, "They should have come in legally," as if their own grandparents and great-grandparents did. And of course, in many cases, the family tree in the area goes back two centuries, well before Texas' independence and joining the US.

It's not just Hispanic immigrants coming in from the Southern border. How about how the Trump administration's treatment of Puerto Ricans in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria?

Here's my problem understanding. I'm white, over 65 and in an upper income bracket. My family and friends are mostly the same income bracket. We are not professional's, but trades' people and entrepreneurs. In my circle of aquintenseces, outside of work, I have at least 100 family and friends. I'd say 75% are Trump supporters. Some stronger than others, and very few men agree with me. Mostly, they are bigots, to one degree or another.

Again, my problem is this, they vote for Trump because "he says what I think." My reply is always "Ya, you're a racist and afraid to say it, so let Trump say it for you." If I need to argue with nearly every one of my contemporaries about being a racist, it would be nice to know that the people being abused agreed with me. If they don't, what's the point?

IQ45 has done a fine job of expressing his racism and disregard for people in trouble, especially PR.

And I do think the ones being abused appreciate everything we are doing to call out the abusers. I hope the people being polled recognize how truly evil trump's policies are. I just don't know if polling will change much.

I'm in San Antonio. Lots of Mexican-American Republicans.

The thing is, they can "rationalize" this with, "It's fake news", "The liberal media is blowing this out of proportion", "The kids are fine" etc.

They also don't like undocumented immigrants because in their mind, they take jobs, get government benefits and bring drugs etc.

We can't discount El Chapo and those types.....There is a tendency to lump immigrants with criminal activity even if you are Mexican-American.

Hurricane Maria was Puerto Rico...


Most are moderate Republicans. I think most are Republicans because of abortion. To them, that is all that matters.

I worked outside the polls during the primary runoff (May 22) . Someone was circulating a petition for "Paid sick leave". Many Mexican-American Republicans signed the petition. Most White Republicans refused. Some of the white people started arguing with of the petitioner saying, "Too many people get too much stuff" etc..

I am married to a Mexican-American. Our candidate for governor is a Lesbian-Latina. My sister-in-law said, "Mexican-American men will not vote for her".

So they remain Republican, yet the espouse Democratic values to some extent. I think abortion is big issue.

I guess it's all about timing.

I often say that people who profess to be pro-life are actually just pro-birth. After that, they couldn't give a fuck.

sounds very much like what you are describing.

Cuz Trump "Ain't killing unborn babies"

There is also a tendency to minimize/rationalize what is happening....we know how bad it is, but to them it is no worse than a child being taken by CPS....They can also rationalize with, "It is only for a few weeks", "The kids will be quickly reunited with their parents" etc.

The Obama admin had problems too. Kids were trafficked under his watch. These were older minors seeking asylum. HHS lost track of them.

I'm in San Antonio. Lots of Mexican-American Republicans.

The thing is, they can "rationalize" this with, "It's fake news", "The liberal media is blowing this out of proportion", "The kids are fine" etc.

They also don't like undocumented immigrants because in their mind, they take jobs, get government benefits and bring drugs etc.

We can't discount El Chapo and those types.....There is a tendency to lump immigrants with criminal activity even if you are Mexican-American.

I've known him for about twenty years. Somehow he managed to work in fast food/restaurant kitchens during that time and also crossed back and forth into Mexico repeatedly to visit his family. He was undocumented.

My sister-in-law bore his three children and didn't work outside the home except for brief periods in order to live off every social program that was available to her, without declaring his income. (Let me note that I think they both are good parents as far as taking really good care of the kids goes.)

Now that he finally got his green card last year and she's raised the kids and has a job, it's constant bitching about undocumented Mexicans and people on welfare and food stamps are committing fraud.

It's astounding, really.

Even in the early 20th C, when immigration was much opener, my Polish grandparents were both "illegal" in some way. (One pretended to be his cousin's brother, the other was smuggled in as a baby.)
Their children and grandchildren include many veterans, several doctors and nurses, and a half-dozen teachers.

The children and grandchildren of the current undocumented will, with access to education, no doubt also do their ancestors (and our country) proud.

They noted for Bush; they voted for shitgibbon.

And keep thinking Texas will go blue soon. If fact, many of the Hispanics there vote for rightwing assholes or don't vote. The ONLY blue parts of Texas have one of the following, a big university or two in the area, or a large voting block of African Americans. Arizona is another state that should have gone blue by now, but is ruled by rightwing assholes.

or they vote Republican.....

(Our A-hole governor's wife is a Latina)

The Census counts Hispanics, but that doesn't mean that they are citizens.....And there is not an easy path these days...

I have two friends who voted for Ted Cruz cuz of his name. They are fairly liberal too.........they aren't even Hispanic, but they are involved with many pro-immigration groups and volunteer within the Hispanic community. They just assumed because of his name, that he would be good for the Hispanic community....

They look at the name and don't look into the person's platform. For me, races for county judge are the most difficult, candidates seldom put out platforms. What I have resorted to doing, and I admit it is not perfect, is look for signs in the yards of African Americans, based upon that I vote for that judge candidate - I admit, it's not perfect, but is the best option that I have since I don't join civics clubs that the judge candidates may speak before.

I can expect that. too many of the people I know are racists first and everything else, second.

They hate blacks, Asians, Latinos and any "other".

how can anybody in those groups support people who hate them?

People are so numb to all his scandals and the catastrophe going on in this country, that it doesn't really affect him anymore (which I'm sure was the point.)

Any other first world country would already be in the streets demanding his removal from office and the end of this child separation crap. We do nothing. Americans are by and large apathetic to the destruction of the country.

That's the fault of the OP, and it is a very common flaw: Fixation on recent details, desperately searching for an adjustment based on those details, and allowing the partisanship to cloud the reality of how likely it is.

Far too much reliance on today. This border stuff is in the news so that's the focus. Meanwhile, today basically means nothing. I wish more people would understand that and grasp the big picture. Outrageous becomes less outrageous when it happens every day, yet people don't find themselves broke and out of work with relationships collapsing. Hey, this isn't so bad after all.

I was posting more than a year ago that Trump's approval rating could only go upward, if he merely maintained his typical level of outrage. At that point we somehow had posters assuming and asserting that the approval rating would remain in the 30s through 2018 and also into 2020.

It is simply very poor situational awareness. To improve clarity in that area, go away for a month and ignore everything. Let Rachel do her night repetitive dissections. Let others obsess over today's Mueller. Let the border situation be replaced by something else in a couple of weeks.

Then when you return you'll see you didn't miss anything at all. The details didn't matter. All those todays didn't mean a thing. Minus some rare remarkable event in either direction, we'll be within fractions of where we are now. But someone else will have overboard faith in trivial details and post a thread like this.

Burn Ronald Reagan's portrait, and outlaw football, baseball, and tennis to get his base riled up.

Rightwing evangelicals will consider his actions as God acting through him. They have eaten up all of their own bullshit and are completely poisoned. There could be some hope if what was seen at the Southern Baptist Convention is real and lasting, 40% of participants voting to revoke an invite for Pence and the new leaders saying Whites and men must show more respect for Black baptists and women, was unheard of during the last 3 decades.

The young troglodytes spout religion, but do not attend or financially support their churches. They need well-employed, intelligent quasi-liberals to survive.

And I am sure that it will within six months. But if democrats have retaken Congress, Trump will blame the bad economy on democrats and lots of voters will buy in to that claim.

is the way PBO was treated. After he stepped out on a limb and did what he could for Dreamers they protested at his rallies that he hadn't done enough and La Raza, especially the president, used to excoriate him for what he had and, hadn't done. They also didn't come out in number in '12 because they hadn't 'been wooed' enough. And apparently, this time they've voted for Comrade Trump in numbers. Do they get it now?

Latino does not equal La Raza

It's like saying Occupy Wall Street represents the Democratic Party.

“UnidosUS, formerly National Council of La Raza (NCLR) (La Raza), is the United States's largest Latino nonprofit advocacy organization. It advocates in favor of progressive public policy changes including immigration reform, a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and reduced deportations.”

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial_s&hl=en&ei=rrgmW_S4BsHajwT8gISIAw&q=la+Raza+&oq=la+Raza+&gs_l=psy-ab.12..0l10.1352.6464.0.11104.9.9.0.0.0.0.234.850.6j1j1.9.0....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..0.9.942.6..35i39k1j0i131k1j0i67k1j0i20i264k1j0i10k1j0i131i67k1j0i131i20i264k1.92.gMsGeFJ2T-c

LULAC is probably the most influential. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_United_Latin_American_Citizens

I see many other popup groups too....Texas Organizing Project, JOLT, Domestica Unidos. Brown Berets, MOVE SA, RAICES and even religious orders. They are the groups that come out and protest, along with our Indivisible groups. I've never seen La Raza or UnidosUS at any of our activities.

I'm also involved with Industrial Area Foundations, which has been around since 1974. They are influential and are church based. They work with city hall and RAICES etc.

with Jose Diaz Balart back when he had a show on MSNCB, he was no fan of PBO and his show reflected that. And what I hope all these groups are doing along with helping with the current crisis is getting their constituencies out to vote as well as engaging those Comrade Trump supporters

From UnidosUS: We serve the Hispanic community through our research, policy analysis, and state and national advocacy efforts, as well as in our program work in communities nationwide. And we partner with a national network of nearly 300 Affiliates across the country to serve millions of Latinos in the areas of civic engagement, civil rights and immigration, education, workforce and the economy, health, and housing.

From LULAC: LULAC is the largest and oldest Hispanic organization in the United States. LULAC advances the economic condition, educational attainment, political influence, housing, health and civil rights of Hispanic Americans through community-based programs operating at more than 1,000 LULAC councils nationwide. The organization involves and serves all Hispanic nationality groups.


It is easy to put activists/protestors on TV. However LULAC is extremely influential. They have membership dues etc. They are mainstream. They are big on scholarships, hence they are popular among parents. My sister-in-law received a LULAC scholarship. (I think it was about $1,000)

BTW: There was a big dust up at LULAC recently because their president is a Trump supporter

What was that president thinking?

So is one organization for Latinos and the other for Hispanics given the explanation I've understood that Hispanics are people who were born in Spain and Latinos basically cover the remaining Spanish speaking people?

Latino and Hispanic are the same thing.

as I've only ever heard them speak a French patois.

“The term ‘’Latin America’’ was coined by the French, by the way. Not the Spanish. So yes, Haitians are latino by definition because French is a latin language, and even Haitian-creole is at least 80% based on French. So are all of the French islands belonging to France (Martinique, Guadeloupe, St-Martin, French Guyana, etc.) So the idea that you have to be Spanish-speaking to be considered latino is absurd. What I will say is that the average Haitian do not think of identifying themselves as latino. It doesn’t come naturally. That has to do with the very singular history of Haiti, being the first black Republic to free themselves from slavery and significantly helping Bolivar spearhead independence movements elsewhere in Latin America. Haitians derive great pride from being revolutionary precursors in the area, despite the current situation of the country. As far as non-acceptance of Haitians as latino by other latinos, a lot of it has to do with racism, plain and simple. Haiti is deemed ‘’too black’’ for many other latinos, and Haiti has never sought to import Europeans to whiten their population.”

https://www.quora.com/Are-Haitians-considered-Latino-since-Haiti-is-part-of-Latin-America

Last edited Sun Jun 17, 2018, 06:18 PM - Edit history (1)

He thinks all liberals should be executed. But if they started rounding up Hispanics who look very ethnic he’d be one of the first picked. He’s part of that 47% who has a very favorable view of Twitler.

...ethnic. If the man you are talking about is for Donald Trump, ethic would be the last word to use to describe him.

It seems Sessions and Trump's "war on non-white kids" is starting to become an embarrassment to Christian fundamentalists.

To assume that any of those prosperity preacher bastards have any morals is assuming a lot.