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General Discussion

Quixote1818

(28,946 posts) Tue Jun 19, 2018, 06:50 PM Jun 2018

1

If Dems are expected to win in Nevada and Arizona Senate races why are Republican's

predicted to hold onto the Senate? The current makeup is 49 to 51 and if those two flip to Dems and the Dems hold in all the other races we take the Senate back 51 to 49.

Is that based on some kind of expectation that McKaskill or Heitkamp might lose? Other than Nelson who is close but still leading those are the only two Dem races that could possibly flip and with a strong blue wave I think they hold. I suppose it is more likely it will be 50 to 50 with Pence the tie breaker.

Thoughts?

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/54/Senate

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-chances-of-winning-the-senate-are-looking-stronger/

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

If Dems are expected to win in Nevada and Arizona Senate races why are Republican's (Original Post) Quixote1818 Jun 2018 OP

'Expected' vs. 'Predicted' elleng Jun 2018 #1

McCaskill and Heitkamp are real tossups in red states. bearsfootball516 Jun 2018 #2

It should be interesting. If Dems have a good night which is very possible Quixote1818 Jun 2018 #3

We have to defend 10 Dems in states where Trump won. nycbos Jun 2018 #4

Rick Scott has been spending a ton of money in Florida Gothmog Jun 2018 #5

elleng

(130,974 posts)

1. 'Expected' vs. 'Predicted'

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 06:52 PM

Jun 2018

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)

2. McCaskill and Heitkamp are real tossups in red states.

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 06:55 PM

Jun 2018

They might be very, very slight favorites, but it wouldn't be any surprise if they lost. Manchin is vulnerable in a deep red state.

Quixote1818

(28,946 posts)

3. It should be interesting. If Dems have a good night which is very possible

Reply to bearsfootball516 (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 07:02 PM

Jun 2018

They could take it back. Certainly would not surprise me if they do.

I don't think Manchin is that vulnerable.

nycbos

(6,034 posts)

4. We have to defend 10 Dems in states where Trump won.

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 07:56 PM

Jun 2018

The map generally is unfavorable to us.

But given Doug Jones won in Alabama anything is possible.

Gothmog

(145,321 posts)

5. Rick Scott has been spending a ton of money in Florida

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 08:04 PM

Jun 2018

I was in Florida during April and Scott was on the air constantly with commercials on term limits

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