IMHO, the template for the mid terms was the VA gubernatorial race

Ed Gillespie ran a Trump like nativist and xenophobic campaign where he demonized our Hispanic brothers and sisters and got clobbered in the suburbs. He lost his race by nine points which is four points worse than the Child Abductor In Chief who lost VA by five points. Gillespie lost despite faring as well as Trump in Trumplandia, i.e. rural areas because he got his head handed to him in the suburbs.

When someone tells you nativism, xenophobia, and demonization of Hispanics works, tell them it works in Trumplandia, not so much anywhere else.